Thursday, November 3, 2011

University of Washington 2011-2012 Preview


                                                          Back to Front. Left to Right.


 Andrew Andrews. Alex Wegner. Brendan Sherrer. Jernard Jerreau. Martin Breunig. Shawn Kemp Jr. Hikeem Stewart. Desmond Simmons. Tony Wroten Jr. Scott Suggs. Aziz N'Diaye. Darnell Gant. Abdul Gaddy. Terrence Ross. C.J. Wilcox.


It has been a long time in the making (OK, so its only been since March, I'm anxious cut me some slack), but the 2011 season is just about here. 11:30am tomorrow I'll be lined up in front of Hec-Ed waiting for the 7pm Exhibition Opener against Seattle Pacific University. Sure it doesn't count towards our record, but after SPU beat Arizona last week, I'm pumped for a bit higher quality game (more on this in the game preview that will be up later today).

Washington finished the year with a disappointing loss to UNC in the NCAA Round of 32. UW had every chance to win the game, including a game winning opportunity with only seconds to go. Let us not remember these painful memories and think about the good things the team accomplished.

After a third straight NCAA appearance, Darnell Gant and Scott Suggs are poised to become the first Washington players in quite sometime, if not ever, to appear in four straight NCAA tournaments. Back to Back Pac-10 tournament Champions after a Pac-10 regular season title. UW finished the year 24-11, 11-7 in conference, good for third place. It was a disappointing season in the sense that UW was the unanimous pick to win the conference and after an an extremely proficient 6-0 start, it seemed as though UW could go undefeated in conference and dominate the title run. A 3 game losing streak to WSU, UO, and OSU on the road took away those dreams and Arizona took home the banner.

The biggest blow came soon after the tournament when Isaiah Thomas declared for the NBA draft. It was a somewhat surprising decision as Thomas had stated he would be coming back for his senior season. Thomas was drafted with the final pick and went to the Sacramento Kings.

UW is primed for another solid season, but a lot of questions remain with the graduation of three seniors and a star junior. How has the post developed? Who will step up to be the leader? Who will be the face of this team?

Key Losses:

Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb

Holiday was a terrific defender who suffered a bit of a down turn towards the end of the year. This was slightly overshadowed at the beginning of the year when his offense seemed to have hit its peak. He was hitting his jumpers, dropping threes all over the place, and was playing with a fire under his shorts. The second half of the season, Holiday struggled to get his shot together. Regardless, Holiday had enough consistency to help the perimeter open shots and get the ball to the posts. UW will miss him most for his defensive and shot blocking capabilities. He was also a strong rebounder due to his lanky arms that seemed to come out of nowhere.

Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb

Much like WSU will miss DeAngelo Casto, UW will miss MBA and what he brought to this team perhaps more than any other player. I know I cursed his name a thousand times for missed shots, poor free throws, etc, but it is because I saw how good he could play and it is frustrating when a player doesn't always meet his potential. MBA's senior season showed drastic improvement on his rebounding abilities, completing 10 double-doubles on the year. MBA also possessed some vicious dunking and blocking skills that made for exciting and entertaining plays each and every game. He was tough in the post and along side Aziz N'Diaye, the duo made up a brutal frontcourt that several teams struggled to match up against.

Isaiah Thomas  5-9 185lb

The face and star of the Washington Basketball squad last season and years past for that matter. He was poised to return for a record shattering senior season. I.T. could have broke the points, wins, assists, and numerous other records. He would have gone down as perhaps the greatest to play for UW. Better than BRoy, Nate, Brockman, Pondexter, Hawes, the list goes on. He was a fantastic scorer, who's hard work and tenacious attitude carried him above and beyond the call of duty so many times. If you don't believe me, remind yourself of the fact that Isaiah Thomas played 123 minutes out of a possible 125 in the Pac-10 tournament, missing only 2 minutes and 2 offensive possessions against Oregon. He also made the perfect shot in the Pac-10 Championship game to win it all, in overtime. The board lights up as it drains through the net. That is the stuff you dream of as a kid and pretend to have happen every day in practice. Unreal. The NBA lockout is just one more reason I.T. should have stuck around.

As opposed to my previous previews, I'm going to look at UW's players a bit more in depth. I know them better and the fan base that reads these articles are primarily UW fans. I'll go class by class starting with the freshmen and moving up to the seniors.

Freshmen: 

Desmond Simmons 6-7 220lb


Simmons redshirted last season after nagging knee pains kept him from his full potential. Simmons returns as one of the most hyped up defensive players in a while. People liken him to a bigger Quincy Pondexter or Justin Holiday with the aggressiveness and hustle ability of Jon Brockman. Simmons gets up and down the court, dives after balls, muscles bigger players out of his way, and does whatever it takes to get the win. He is a real scrapper that will prove to be a huge asset. Throw him in at the 4 behind Gant and we have ourselves a bit more solid frontcourt.

Andrew Andrews 6-2 195lb

Yes, his first name is essentially his last. No idea why his parents would do that to him...anyways...He and Romar agreed he would redshirt this season as he chose to come to UW instead of prep school after the graduation of Isaiah Thomas. He is a very solid point guard with great speed and passing skills. His defense needs improvement as he often gets tagged with sloppy and obvious fouls. Once Romar gets him aligned with the UW defensive ways, Andrew(s) will be one of the better guards to come through UW. We'll likely see him garner some play time tomorrow against SPU, but that will be the last of him this season (a player can participate in exhibition games during their redshirt season).

Alex Wegner 6-7 190lb

Wegner is a local walk-on from Vashon Island. He averaged 23 points and 12 rebounds his senior season and was a McDonald's All-American nominee. He is listed as both a guard and forward due to his ball handling skill. Combined with his size, Wegner make a solid 3 prospect, but one that will likely not see a ton of time outside of garbage minutes. Walk-ons don't get scholarships for a reason, they aren't quite ready to play at the next level. Who knows, in a year or two Wegner could see some play time. I certainly expect Brendan Sherrer to see some play time his senior season.

Hikeem Stewart 6-2 175lb

Younger brother to twins Lodrick and Rodrick Stewart, who both played for USC, Hikeem has a basketball family. As a guard, Stewart will likely see time behind Abdul Gaddy and fellow freshman, Tony Wroten Jr. He has a solid skill set for a 1 guard with some shooting ability to allow him to combo as a 2. Being able to play either guard position should see him more play time. If Stewart can get his defensive game together and make smart decisions on offense, I see no reason he can't expect 10 to 15 minutes a game.

Jernard Jarreau 6-10 195lb

Jarreau is a skinny kid. That much is obvious, but what is not obvious is that he grew 7 inches at the end of his high school era and kept the point guard skills he had developed at 6-3. Now he is 6-10 with the ability to play from the 1 to 4 without too much concern. If Jarreau can add another 20 to 30lb of muscle, he could really get low in the post to bang for boards and points. For now he may have to extend his game a bit further out and use his size and jump shot to create opportunities.

Martin Breunig 6-8 210lb

A strong forward prospect from Germany with Vietnamese heritage (his full name is Martin Phong Ni Watt Breunig, seems Vietnamese to me), Breunig averaged close to a double double with 15 points and 9 rebounds. He played in the NBBL in Germany as well as their FIBA U18 team in the European tournament. Breunig isn't a developed back-to-basket type player yet, but his face-up game is pretty good. He has a great mid-range jumper that can extend to the arc. His height allows him to get up on the glass, throw down some dunks, and block shots.

Shawn Kemp Jr. 6-9 265lb

Son of famous Sonics legend, Shawn Kemp aka the Reign Man, Jr has been through a lot to get to UW. He has spent the previous two seasons committed to two different schools, both of which he was declared ineligible for due to academic reasons. With his schooling in line and tutors in place, Kemp Jr. is ready to roll and provide support for Aziz N'Diaye in the post. Romar expects Kemp Jr. to play at 250lb and has already helped improve his conditioning and endurance 10 fold. Kemp reminds me a lot of Tyreese Breshers who retired from basketball due to an undisclosed medical reason. He is a big boy who can throw his weight around to attack the glass. I haven't seen too much of his game play outside of a small scrimmage, but he looks like a decent enough 5. Good enough to give N'Diaye some rest time without a huge drop off.

Tony Wroten Jr. 6-5 205lb

Wroten is likely the highest rated player to ever come to UW. A local prospect, Wroten chose to stay home and represent his city in a big way. Known for his extreme passing abilities, Wroten is a pass first guard with the ability to attack the lane when he wants to. At 6-5 he will prove to be a tough match-up for teams like OSU where a potential starter is Ahmad Starks, nearly a foot shorter at 5-7. Wroten has been known to throw passes his teammates cannot handle and is a bit turnover prone. Don't be surprised if Wroten leads the team in both assists and turnovers. Romar will need to reign him in a bit to help the team out. A big question is whether Wroten and Gaddy can share the court due to their passing guard nature. Gaddy says yes and I agree. Gaddy showed great shooting improvement before his injury, which would allow the two to play at the same time. Expect some spectacular plays between Wroten and Ross or Wroten and N'Diaye.

Sophomores:

C.J. Wilcox 6-5 185lb

Wilcox is one of the best 3 point shooters the UW has ever seen. He had a somewhat slow year marred by injuries that seemed to have shaken his confidence. All that being said, Wilcox proved himself at the end of the year when he scored 24 points in the second half against UCLA, averaged double digit scoring in the Pac-10 and NCAA tournaments, and drilled an all important 3 pointer in the Pac-10 championship game against Arizona. Wilcox has been overshadowed in the off-season due to the high expectations of Terrence Ross. When it comes down to it, Wilcox may be a less prolific player, but a much smoother shooter and he will find his success without a doubt. Expect Wilcox to be one of our top scorers and one of the best 3 point shooters in the conference and likely the nation. I predict Wilcox to be first off the bench if Wroten starts along with Gaddy, second if Wroten comes off the bench.

Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb

Ross is without a doubt the most hyped player coming into the season. The coaches and players (both past and present) are assured that he is the best to come through the program. Isaiah Thomas says he'll be gone after this year and the NBA draft board certainly has him as a near lottery pick (top 10 picks). Romar thinks he could be one of the top scorers in the nation and if his play in the Pac-10 and NCAA tournaments were any indication of where his game is heading, I'd say Romar has it right. Ross had some utterly fantastic games throughout last season and struggled to find a groove in others. One thing is certain, Ross is not afraid to shoot and attack the hoop. He is extremely athletic, with long arms, a sweet shot, and the ability to throw down with the best. Ross should be a candidate for Pac-12 Player of the Year along with Jorge Gutierrez and Reeves Nelson.

Juniors:

Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb

After a below average freshman year, Gaddy broke out at the start of his sophomore year with brilliant shooting and stellar passing only to be cut down with an ACL tear in practice. Now back in action, Gaddy looks as solid as ever. He is not wearing a brace and is expected to start tomorrows exhibition. Gaddy is player who, if he has an extremely proficient year, could head to the draft in the off season. I'd love to see him finish his four years and break Will Conroy's assists records.

Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb


The 7 footer is even bigger this year, adding on at least 10 pounds of muscle. With an improved offensive game, N'Diaye is the biggest key to a successful season. If he has truly turned a corner with his hands and back-to-the-basket game, N'Diaye will be a terrifying player to go up against. He could easily average a double double. It would not surprise me to see him lead the conference in rebounding and blocks. Heck, he could be one of the top rebounders in the nation if he steps his game up. My biggest wish is for his free throw shooting to see drastic improvement. If Aziz can become a true post threat, UW could make a great run at the conference title as well as a deep run in the NCAA.


Seniors:

Brendan Sherrer 6-8 255lb


In his third season as a walk-on, Sherrer has begun to really draw notice from his peers and coaches. The Human Victory Cigar could soon put that title on the line as I suspect we will see Sherrer on the court for legitimate minutes and not just garbage time. How much remains to be seen, but don't be surprised when Sherrer is sitting at the scorers' table during the first half. From Dawg Pack to Player, Sherrer's journey is one I wish I could travel. He is a tough, dedicated player with a great attitude. He needs to start becoming more offensively minded as his time on the court is usually spent running around screening anything and everything. It's actually kind of comical. Sherrer is one of those players who can provide defensive depth during foul trouble situations or high speed games where rest is needed for our starters.


Scott Suggs 6-6 195lb


Scott Suggs is the third head of UW's three point shooting trio. Suggs showed off his newly acquired talents this past year driving the lanes and working the attack from more than just a spot and shoot position. Out currently with a broken foot, Suggs is hoping to return in time for the game in St. Louis, but likely will not return until the December match-ups against Marquette and Duke. Suggs could hae a breakout senior year as is common in Romar's tenure. He could be the rock the team leads on in close games as his senior leadership and experience is crucial.


Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb


Gant is the first redshirt senior Romar has ever had. Gant showed a big improvement in his rebounding game in the second half of last season and his scoring has also taken a turn for the better. Gant is another player the season success will rely on. UW does not have a ton of size combined with experience in the post and it will be important Gant remains healthy, active, and successful on both ends of the court. Gant needs to pick up where he left off: attacking the glass, and taking the open shots. I'd like to see him drive the lanes more when he receives the ball on the wings.


Predicted Starting Line-Up:

Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 185lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb (Will be out against SPU with a concussion, Desmond Simmons will start)

That may be the tallest line-up UW has ever garnered. Heck, our shortest player is 6-2. Without Aziz against SPU we get a glimpse of the struggles we could face down low when he finds himself in foul trouble.

What to Expect:

This could be another topsy turvy season for UW as a lot of questions remain unanswered. If UW can overcome their somewhat youthful roster and use their new found size to great advantage, UW should be dancing in March once again. Several players appear like they could be NBA level talent, its a matter of living up to the expectation. UW will also needs its bench to fill in the holes and step up their games. All told, UW should be one of the top teams in conference without a doubt. How good they can be remains to be seen. Romar always seems to have them ready by post season, but we have to get to the post season first before we can truly prepare for it. With Ross, Wroten, Gaddy, and Aziz leading the way I see no reason UW can't compete with UCLA and UA to take the title. KenPom is predicting a 12-6 conference record, but only predicts two losses (on the road at UA and UCLA, which I agree will be tough). Personally, a 14-4 record sounds about right. I fully predicted 18-0 and I fully believe it should have happened. This year I am a little more cautious and apprehensive. We could do as well as 16-2 or as bad as 12-6. A lot remains to be seen and hopefully the non-conference schedule answers our questions early so the Duke/Marquette games can be exciting and competitive wins for the Dawgs. Let's hope this team can pull through and break that Sweet 16 barrier. It would go a long way in helping our program step into the limelight as well as help our recruiting take the next step forward.

Go Dawgs!

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