UW takes on its first rematch of the season as well as beginning what will be a long, arduous road to the Pac-12 title. With 5 of 7 games on the road, the Dawgs need to be peaking and it appears as if they might be doing just that. The Huskies have won the past 5 games, including road wins over Arizona, ASU, and Utah. While ASU and Utah may not be the most stellar teams this conference has to offer, the mentality and attitude needed to win on the road should certainly pay off. The team chemistry is better, the toughness has shot up since the addition of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and our big men are finally getting production down low on top of our guards becoming more aggressive inside the paint. All this is coming at the right time due to the injury of C.J. Wilcox, which holds back our ability to be effective on the perimeter. While I understand Wilcox has been extremely limited in practice the past few weeks, he needs to find his stroke and get confident again as he has hit only one 3-pointer in the past four games. Something has to change or the opposition will start crowding the paint. Darnell Gant has been playing some of his best basketball these past few games and is a big reason why the Huskies have turned their game around.
Up next are the Oregon Ducks who sit at 7-4 in conference. This game will play a huge part in the hunt for a Pac-12 title as a win for Oregon puts the Ducks one game back and allows Cal to possible tie the lead, while a loss for Oregon will almost certainly be a death blow as they will be sitting 3 games out of first with only 6 games remaining. A win by UW also allows the Dawgs to maintain their hold on first place with a possibility of extending their lead should the Golden Bears stumble on the road against the LA schools. The Ducks have lost 2 of their last 3 games including a last second loss to Colorado on a pair of free throws as well as an embarrassing loss to rival OSU at home when the Ducks gave up a 6 point lead with 13 minutes to go.
The most telling score for me was the 68 points allowed by the Ducks against Utah on the road. While I understand most teams play better at home than on the road, Utah is not so good that they should score 12 points higher than their season average against one of the better teams in the Pac-12. The Ducks did win 76-68, but allowing 68 points to a team that ranks 336th out of 342 in scoring is somewhat disturbing. Either Utah really played out of their minds or Oregon played poor defense. Likely, a combination of both occurred. What it tells me is that the Ducks are susceptible to defensive droughts, something the Huskies need to capitalize on.
Last time in Hec-Ed, the Dawgs put on a show and crushed Oregon 76-60 and held leading scorer Devoe Joseph to 4 points on 1-13 shooting. E.J. Singler and Garrett Sims stepped up for the Ducks, combining for 33 points. The biggest difference between that game and the one tonight is the absence of Wilcox who scored a game high 24 points on 6-8 shooting from deep. The Huskies as a whole were impressive behind the arc as Abdul Gaddy went 3-3 and Terrence Ross was 3-5. As good as the Dawgs were outside, their inside game lacked its usual punch. The Huskies were out-rebounded 35-27, including a 14-4 offensive rebound advantage for the Ducks. Not good.
Since his 4 point game against the Dawgs, Joseph has gone on a screaming run of impressive scoring. Joseph tallied 30 against Stanford, 26 against OSU, and 20 against Utah. The game against Washington is the only time this season that Joseph has been held under 10 points. It will be critical that the Dawgs contain Joseph once more as he is the deadly player the Ducks have on their roster. Joseph is an impressive 45% from both the field and from outside the arc and an equally important 80% from the foul line. Tony Wroten and Abdul Gaddy were able to muscle Joseph around, preventing him from entering any sort of shooting rhythm.
E.J. Singler continues to be a driving force for the Ducks. In the past 9 games, Singler has been in double digits for 8 games including 26 against UCLA following a disappointing 4 points against lowly USC. Singler leads the team in rebounds at 5.4 per game and had 9 last time against UW. Not sure why Singler was able to be so effective against us, but our wings need to do a much better job defensively to prevent Singler from rolling all over us once more. The Dawgs cannot let Singler get to the line as he is an 88% shooter, second in the conference only to Wilcox.
Garrett Sims is somewhat of an X-factor for the Ducks. He is third in scoring with 12 points per game, but his 3-point shooting is second only to Joseph by a small margin. Sims has 3 more makes than Joseph, but has attempted 7 more shots. As with Joseph and Singler, Sims is an excellent foul shooter with an 86% average on the year. His rebounding is not terrible impressive with only 3 per game, but Sims also averages 3 assists per game and commits less than 2 turnovers per night. I consider Sims the X-factor because his scoring could dramatically increase if the Dawgs pay too much attention to Joseph and Singler.
Olu Ashaolu was a force in the middle for the Ducks last time around. Ashaolu gathered in 12 rebounds, 6 offensive. His scoring was low at only 6 points, but Ashaolu's tenacity on the glass allowed the Ducks many, many, extra opportunities. Not sure how the Dawgs found themselves so boxed out by Ashaolu who stands at 6-7 220lb, but they need to get it together. Perhaps Darnell Gant will reenter the starting 5 after his increased production and can provide a shut down hand and some inside presence to keep Ashaolu off the block.
Jeremy Jacob has been a new addition to the starting 5 and is performing reasonably well. His numbers are far from impressive, but for the 15 minutes or so per game that he plays, Jacob is an effective defender and provides some side and mobility in the middle. Jacob has managed 10 points only twice this season and those came in back to back games against SE Missouri State and Nebraska. After scoring 8 against UW, Jacob has not scored more than 6 points in a game and had a giant goose egg during 15 minutes against USC. Jacob has pulled in 4 or more rebounds in five of the past nine games.
Tony Woods is a much more threatening big man who stands at 6-11 250lb. Woods is averaging 7 points and 4 boards per game. Woods only managed 1 shot against the Huskies, which he made, and in the 9 games since then, has only scored more than 7 points twice. In those same nine games, Woods has picked up 4 or more boards 6 times.
Predicted Starting Line-Ups:
Oregon:
Garrett Sims 6-2 185lb
Devoe Joseph 6-4 180lb
E.J. Singler 6-6 215lb
Olu Ashaolu 6-6 220lb
Jeremy Jacob 6-8 230lb
Washington:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
Tony Wroten Jr. 6-5 205lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Desmond Simmons 6-7 220lb (I think he keeps the spot just to maintain chemistry)
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb
Keys to the Game:
Rebounding:
Without our outside shooting, the missed shots will be falling shorter than usual, which means our guys need to box out and get on the glass. The Ducks were able to out-rebound the Huskies despite playing a shorter line up. As Jon Brockman always said, rebounding is an attitude. You have to want every ball and fight for it. Simmons, Gant, N'Diaye, Ross, and Wroten all need to use their size and skills to get up and clean the glass, especially defensively where the Ducks were able to pull in so many extra attempts.
Ball Control:
This team has been a bit sloppy in the past week, giving the ball up far too many times to be acceptable. Oregon is better than both UCLA and USC and as such, the turnover and mistakes will be much more costly to the Dawgs. Our guards need to play smart and our team needs to work the ball around with speed and purpose as opposed to the slow and steal-prone style of offense that has been far to persistent this season. The Dawgs play their best game when they are playing with a high tempo. the Dawgs can play high tempo in the half court by passing the ball around a lot, screening for their shooters, and working to get an open attempt versus standing in place, waiting for Gaddy or Wroten to bring the ball to them.
Start Fast:
No better way to get a team feeling good on the road than to hit some early buckets. This not only silences the crowd, something very important in Eugene, but it also gets our players confident and brings the over all mood up. Against Arizona the Dawgs were able to land some early punches and I fully expect them to do the same tonight. Get the ball inside to N'Diaye where he holds a minimum 4 inch and 30lb advantage. N'Diaye has looked really solid these past 2 weeks and can be a great contributor if the team gets him the ball.
Final Thoughts:
This is a very winnable game for the Dawgs. Playing in Eugene should not make a difference, but the youth of this team has shown itself prone to road game woes. The Ducks have a lot to gain from a win tonight and you can bet they will have their A-game on show. The Dawgs have to play every bit as tough because they have just as much to lose. However, the Dawgs should not be playing not to lose, they should be playing to win and secure first place for another night. If the Dawgs play timid, the Ducks will abuse them. With the Ducks lacking skilled big men, I think the key match-up comes inside. If no one can stop N'Diaye in the middle, our outside shooting will open up and hopefully our team can get some nice looks. Aggression in the middle is going to be a decisive factor in tonight's outcome.
Final Score Prediction: UW-76 UO-70
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