Saturday, June 30, 2012

The X-Factor in 2012-2013

Every team needs a star and perhaps just as important is the X-factor player. The guy who doesn't always produce the most impressive stats in every column, but does the type of work that turns a potential loss into a win. Many times the X-factor is the first man off the bench who supplies tough defense, a steady hand, and killer instinct.

Last season, C.J. Wilcox and Desmond Simmons often appeared to be the X-factor as both supplied their own unique brand of basketball support. Wilcox was an efficient scorer and solid defense player as well as shot blocker, while Simmons was more known for his rebounding and sheer tenacity in getting down and dirty after loose balls.

This season presents a more interesting challenge in identifying who will step his game up in a special way to supply the team with that extra oomph that is needed to keep the scoring margin in our favor. With our best talent now in the NBA there is plenty of room for players to step up and become the stars of the hardwood. In turn, this leaves room for players to become the new X-factor, but exactly who is tough to nail down after experiencing such a shallow bench this past year.

Desmond Simmons is an easy early pick as next season's X-Factor. While Simmons' production on the glass slowed during conference play, the potential and talent was clearly displayed in the non-conference games and will most certainly be improved upon by the start of 2012's non-conference schedule. Simmons reminds me a lot of Jon Brockman, an undersized power forward with great strength and hustle. Simmons knows how to use his body to gain position and snatch rebounds up left and right and is more than willing to sacrifice his body diving on the floor and fighting for every ball out there. Simmons showed signs of an excellent mid range to long range shot in early season games, but strayed away from shooting the ball as the year went on. With the departure of Darnell Gant, the team could really use a consistent touch between 10 and 15 feet and Simmons may be just the guy to do it. What makes me believe in Simmons as the X-factor next season is his motor and drive. Not many players work as hard as he does day in and day out. Add in his extra experience due to his redshirt season and Simmons has all the makings of a game changer.

Aziz N'Diaye should also be considered in this discussion due to the offensive upside that remains on his side. N'Diaye will (more than likely) be a three year starter for the Dawgs, all without having much of a developed offensive game. Everyone knows the type of contribution N'Diaye makes on the defensive end with his massive body sucking up the paint and his rebounding efforts make him a very valuable force in the middle. N'Diaye can become an X-factor by turning his inability to shoot free throws into a passable aspect of his game. With N'Diaye standing taller and stronger than a majority of his opposition, playing above and through contact should not and has not been too much of a problem. What has been a problem is his production at the foul line following the contact. With a career average just over 40%, N'Diaye has missed, quite literally, over 100 free opportunities at easy points. I expect no player to be perfect at the line, but as Gilles Dierickx has shown, big men can shoot the ball well from the foul line if they are willing to work at it. Averaging 4 foul attempts per game this past year, N'Diaye is missing 2 to 3 points per game. Perfecting his shot suddenly jumps N'Diaye's 8 point average right into the double digit range and gives him a chance to put up a double-double in every game. A summer's worth of work should be enough to get him near the 75% any player should consider the minimum, it only comes down to whether N'Diaye is willing to put in the work necessary to fix his shot. UW has been well known for its string of proficient outside shooters and wings. If N'Diaye can become an offensive force in the paint, his presence can be a deterrent to defenses wishing to cheat outside. However, this will only work well if N'Diaye proves he can hit the free ones. Should N'Diaye continue to miss his foul shots, the opposition should have no problem instituting a "Hack-a-Shaq" policy and the defense will be freer to spread the floor and prevent the deep shots.

Mark McLaughlin is another intriguing choice, though for different reasons than the two mentioned above. McLaughlin was a dominating scorer at the junior college level averaging nearly 30 points per game. The biggest question surrounding McLaughlin is "Can he produce at such high levels against Division 1 defense?" The likely answer is that McLaughlin will continue to score in droves, though his possession numbers will not be high enough to rack up 30 points a night. Personally, McLaughlin strikes me as a guy who will produce much like Wilcox has these past two years. McLaughlin sizes up well next to Scott Suggs and Wilcox and could very well be the 6th man of this team and the first sub off the bench. What made the 2010-2011 Huskies so dangerous was the bench depth and scoring potential of so many players. That season featured a rotation of nearly 10 guys, all of whom could have started for any team in the Pac-10. They all could score and as such, substitutions did not mean a dip in scoring. McLaughlin should be a big help in that same vein. When Suggs or Wilcox need a breather, McLaughlin could offer up a third deadly hand to maintain a high team scoring average. McLaughlin needs to establish himself early in the preseason games in Europe and Africa to gain the confidence of his coaches and teammates.

A fourth choice is Jernard Jarreau, the 6-10 forward with point guard skill. Featuring a 7-7 wingspan, Jarreau is a lanky guy with huge potential to disrupt on the defensive end and play above the rim on both sides of the court. A comparison to Anthony Davis is likely farfetched, but Jarreau strikes me as a similar player due to their build and back stories. With N'Diaye beside Jarreau with a 7-6 wing span, the duo more than covers the 12 foot paint and take up 30% of the court's width. That type of length is tough to beat and will certainly help ail some of the defensive issues that plagued the Dawgs off and on last season. Jarreau must do more than play tough, preventative defense. Jarreau must also supply some sort of scoring potential, preferably from the high post where he can see above the defense to create plays through himself or with a pass to an open teammate. Jarreau could be the first man off the bench for the Husky frontcourt to provide Simmons with a breather. Jarreau's thin frame prevents him from subbing for N'Diaye, but that is where Shawn Kemp Jr. comes into play.

Go Dawgs!

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