Colorado enters this game 9-4 on the season, 1-0 in Pac-12 play, most recently coming off a win against fellow newcomer Utah, whom the Buffaloes absolutely crushed 73-33. While I understand Utah is not even close to having the talent necessary to compete in Pac-12 yet, Colorado did not exactly come in with the highest hopes either after losing Alex Burk to the draft. That being said, Colorado has looked pretty decent in non-conference play with their biggest win a two pointer over Georgia, the same squad UW played last year in the NCAA tournament.
The Buffalo offense has been stable thus far with a low score of 54 and a high of 92. Most scores have been right around their season average of 71 points per game. Colorado receives its scoring from a variety of players with five putting up 9 or more per game and four of those in double digits. The Buffaloes also posses a very strong rebounder who has allowed them to remain one of the top in conference in terms of boards per outing. Much like the Huskies, Colorado does not do well at the free throw line.
Andre Roberson has been explosive for Colorado this season. Averaging 12 points and 12 rebounds per game, Roberson leads the team in boards and is second in points behind Carlon Brown who is scoring almost 13 per game (more on him later). Roberson is a tough, quick "guard" who has been near impossible to contain. At 6-7, most guards cannot match-up well with him, but at 195lb our forwards can do a little more muscling around. Roberson has been held to single digit rebounding only twice this season, while also having four games of 15 or more rebounds. The most recent was a season (and I believe career) high of 17 against Utah. What makes Roberson so tough to stop is not only his own personal skills, but the rather large line-up Colorado is able to put on the floor. Against Utah, Colorado started players at 6-3, 6-5, 6-5, 6-7, 6-9. With the first four listed as guards. This team actually sizes up quite well with the Huskies who have tended to have a size advantage in the backcourt this season. Expect Darnell Gant and Desmond Simmons to draw shut down duty on Roberson. I suspect Simmons will be more successful in this endeavor as he is an avid rebounder like Roberson.
Carlon Brown is a 6-5 215lb senior guard with solid shot. Averaging just in 13 points per game, Brown is shooting 50% form the field and a decent enough 36% from range (18 of 50). Brown is a shooting guard with a fairly competent eye for the ball. He hands out 2.5 assists per game, second on the team, but also commits a hair over 2 turnovers per game. Brown does well enough at the free throw line, making nearly 76% of his attempts. He is dangerous in the lane, but also finds success breaking off screens on the perimeter for open jump shots.
Spencer Dinwiddie is the most dangerous shooter on the Buffalo team. While he is third in scoring with 11.5 points per game, he leads the team in 3-point percentage hitting nearly 52% of his attempts (19 of 37). Dinwiddie is also dangerous at the foul line with an 84% average on the year. Those types of numbers make him a dangerous match-up for UW as the Huskies can be very foul prone, especially on the road. The Dawgs will need to find a way of shutting him down without getting him to the line. Man-to-man means more foul situations, but also should eliminate 3-point attempts. Dinwiddie has the ability to create for himself and tends to do so, but he has solid catch and shoot motion that is tough to defender.
Nate Tomlinson is the play maker for Colorado. He leads the team with about 3.5 assists per game and commits under 2 turnovers per outing. Tomlinson is only averaging 6 points per game and is not a threat in that aspect. His shot is still a work in progress, hitting only 34% of his field goals (31% form range) and struggles at the foul line with a 66% average. If the Dawgs are going to foul anyone, this is the guy to foul. I think the Huskies will need to focus their defensive efforts on Tomlinson to contain the Buffalo offense as he is the one the plays run through. By forcing him into uncomfortable situations, the Dawgs are likely to force more turnovers and fast break situations.
The starting big for the Buffaloes is 6-9 225lb Austin Dufault. Dufault is fourth in scoring with 10 points per game and second in rebounding with about 5 per game. Dufault reminds me a lot of Darnell Gant in that he is a strong, but mobile forward who can get out on the perimeter and do damage and maintains the ability to post up and take some short to mid-range shots with high accuracy. Dufault has been much more efficient and consistent than Gant.
Predicted Starting Line-Ups:
Colorado:
Nate Tomlinson 6-3 190lb
Spencer Dinwiddie 6-5 190lb
Carlon Brown 6-5 215lb
Andre Roberson 6-7 195lb
Austin Dufault 6-9 225lb
Washington:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
Tony Wroten Jr. 6-5 205lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb
Keys to the Game:
Rebounding:
After seeing an undersized Oregon take control of the glass against the Dawgs at home, I'm a little worried with this stat against Colorado. Roberson leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and is certainly one of the top in the nation. Coming off a 17 rebound game, one has to imagine that Roberson is feeling confident in his abilities and will present a tough man to control. Regardless, the Huskies need to take care of business, box out, and help on defensive assignments to ensure Colorado does not thrive off second chance shots and points. The Dawgs also need to do themselves a favor and take better care on the offensive glass (they only managed 6 against Oregon, far below the 12 to 15 they should be aiming for). N'Diaye, Simmons, Wroten, and Ross will need to step their games up and do the work necessary to control the board.
Defense, Defense, Defense:
That has been the theme of the week and it paid off against the Oregon schools. When the Ducks and Beavers began to make runs, the Dawg defense stepped up and got stops to slow their momentum and change it in our own direction. Steals, turnovers, blocks, and even deflections will play a big part in this next game. The Dawgs have not had a good year on the road and need to show they can get it done away from Hec-Ed. This all starts with defense. It's been looking better, now can they show up on the road?
Ball Control:
The Buffaloes force between 12 and 14 turnovers per game, while not a ton is certainly disruptive. Wroten and others have done a better job as of late controlling the ball and limiting turnovers. This trend needs to continue as every turnover is a free opportunity for Colorado to score some easy buckets. Look for Wroten to continue his role as shooting guard, playing off the ball, with Gaddy on the court.
Final Thoughts:
This is a big time trap game for the Huskies. Colorado may not have had a strong non-con schedule, but they fared pretty well and beat the teams they should have. After their man-handling of Utah they are looking like a competent team that can do some serious damage. The Dawgs should be able to pull of a win, but it will be a close and stressful game, of that I have no doubt. I think it comes down to how well the Husky offense can get going and if they are able to make the stops that are expected of them. If UW can get rolling early and start the game with a big run, I think their confidence and morale will soar, resulting in a high scoring night. If it comes to a shoot out, the Dawgs are much better equipped for a win.
Final Score Prediction:
UW-80 CU-75
Showing posts with label Buffaloes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buffaloes. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Colorado University Preview: 2011-2012
Colorado finished the 2010-2011 season decently enough. A 21-13 record is far from terrible, but their 8-8 in conference is pretty mediocre. To be fair, The big 12 had offered some fairly stiff competition in Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Kansas State. Not the best, but not the worst team in the Big 12, Colorado enters the new Pac-12 in what appears to be a rebuilding year. The Buffaloes have lost five seniors to graduation and sophomore Alec Burks to the NBA draft (The NBA is still in a lockout for those who haven't heard and the first two weeks of the season have been canceled thus far). The Buffaloes four top scorers (all double digit) are included in the above group and are left with then freshman, now sophomore, Andre Roberson as the returning leading scorer at 6.7 points per game. All told, the Buffaloes have lost 60 points per game out of their 80 point average. To me this looks a lot like the California team of 2010-2011 when they lost five seniors and four of their starting five. Much like the Huskies, the Buffaloes are looking for who can take over a game and light up the hoop. It's somewhat unfortunate that Colorado wasn't able to enter the Pac Conference one year earlier to make a better impression, but all signs point to Colorado get stepped all over much like is currently happening on the football side of things. Not to side track terribly, but I cannot wait for this Saturday when the Buffs come to Husky Stadium missing 8 cornerbacks and their number one wide receiver. Keith Price should have a field day. Anyways, back to basketball.
Key Losses:
Alec Burks 6-6 195lb
Burk was an exceptional player, averaging over 20 points, nearly 7 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. His range game needed some fine tuning, but he was dangerous in the lane for it not to be a problem. He was selected with the 12th pick of the NBA draft by the Utah Jazz. Burks was the driving force of this offense and will be missed sorely by the Buffaloes.
Cory Higgins 6-5 180lb
Another strong shooting guard, the senior averaged 16 points a game and nearly 35% from 3 point range. Higgins knew how do score and did it well throughout his career. His freshman season only averaged 8 points a game, but every year after he averaged between 16 and 18 points a game. Great numbers.
Levi Knutson 6-4 200lb
Knutson took a big step up this previous season, raising his scoring average from 3 points a game to nearly 12. The Buffaloes need someone to follow in Knutson's footsteps and take a dramatic step up in talent and scoring.
Marcus Relphord 6-7 220lb
Relphord was the only other player to average double digits for Colorado at 11 points a game. Despite his taller size, he only managed 4 boards a game. In some sense this is a good thing for Colorado as they have less searching to do when it comes to rebounding (Andre Roberson is their returning leading rebound at nearly 8 a game).
The Buffaloes also graduated Javon Coney 6-3 210lb and Trent Beckley 6-9 240lb, but neither player saw significant time nor contributed significant stats.
Incoming Freshmen:
To replace the exodus of star guards and a pair of big men, Colorado was able to pick up some promising players in 3 guards and a power forward.
Jeremey Adams 6-5 200lbs
Adams is a transfer from Texas A&M. Rivals rated him a 3 star recruit. I couldn't find much info on him and I don't know for certain if he is eligible to play this season as he transferred in March of 2011 from A&M. NCAA rules dictate that most transfer students have to sit out a season. He has already used his redshirt at A&M. 6-5 is a good shooting guard height and he should match up well, in terms of size, to guys like C.J. Wilcox, or Scott Suggs. Not sure what kind of impact he can make, but with a few years of D-1 practice under his belt he should be a solid player for the Buffaloes.
Damiene Cain 6-6 215lb
ESPN has it right when they say Cain is an undersized PF at the high major levels. The Pac-12 is a high major conference and Cain will have difficulty scoring low against the big boys. Thankfully, for him and the Buffs, Cain has a nice outside shot and can make 3 pointers with reasonable accuracy. Unlike Jon Brockman, who was also an undersized paint player, Cain doesn't have the weight and strength to bang down low consistently. Look for Cain to play as a 3/4 hybrid.
Spencer Dinwiddie 6-3 160lb
Now I'm not one to normally bash on the smaller guys, but Dinwiddie is my size exactly and I have no idea how he is supposed to compete with guys like Terrence Ross or drive the lane against Aziz N'Diaye. Then again, there is a reason I'm here typing this article and not playing the game myself. Dinwiddie has obviously put in the effort and practice to be able to compete despite his thin nature. Dinwiddie is definitely a pass first guard with a slower shot.
Askia Booker 6-1 160lb
Another smaller guard, but a needed replacement in terms of skill set. He has a great shot even outside 20 feet and has some nice dribbling maneuvers that allow him to attack the lane. His major drawback is his tendency to force poor shots or passes in heavy traffic. Colorado will need to get him to calm down a bit and let the play develop more before hustling off a shot. If Booker can minimize his turnovers and get open for shots, he has a legitimate chance to be one of the leading scorers for Colorado.
Returning Players:
Colorado will have some size in their mix this next season with their smallest guy at 6-1 and a fair few between 6-5 and 6-9.
Shannon Sharpe 6-1 200lb
Nate Tomlinson 6-3 190lb
Andre Roberson 6-7 195lb
Austin Dufault 6-9 225lb
Trey Eckloff 6-10 235lb
Ben Mills 7-0 215lb
Looking over the roster, it seems like tall, skinny guys are the theme. Ben Mills will be giving up 60+ pounds to Aziz and even Eckloff is giving up 30+ pounds. Their incoming guards are thin, but those currently on the roster are big enough. Colorado would do themselves a favor by handing out protein shakes a little more often.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Shannon Sharpe 6-1 200lb
Nate Tomlinson 6-3 190lb
Jeremy Adams 6-5 200lb
Andre Roberson 6-7 195lb
Austin Dufault 6-9 225lb
The door is wide open for players to grab starting spots and this line-up is based merely on who got the most play time last season and who has the most experience. Overall this give their starting 5 decent enough size. UW certainly played its fair share of games with a similar line-up and it's not like we struggled to succeed.
What to Expect:
I don't see as pretty a year for the Buffaloes as I originally thought. After looking more closely at their roster I can't imagine that Colorado will win too many games. They should compete with ASU, Utah, and WSU. Maybe play decent enough against Stanford, OSU, or USC, but UW, UA, UCLA, Cal, and even UO should put a whooping on the newcomers. What I am most sad about is that neither Colorado nor Utah will play at Hec-Ed this season. I know myself and fellow Dawg Pack members were really looking forward to some fresh meat to torture and tease. Colorado misses the Washington road trip and also misses the South Cal schools at home. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing for the Buffs. USC won't be great this season and WSU definitely should not be that successful either. UW and UCLA both have some great talent on their respective squads so these two trips seem about equal strength for me. Georgia is the only "big name" team I see on their non-conference schedule so expect to see Colorado do well enough before Pac-12 play rolls around and then pushed around in conference plays.
Key Losses:
Alec Burks 6-6 195lb
Burk was an exceptional player, averaging over 20 points, nearly 7 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. His range game needed some fine tuning, but he was dangerous in the lane for it not to be a problem. He was selected with the 12th pick of the NBA draft by the Utah Jazz. Burks was the driving force of this offense and will be missed sorely by the Buffaloes.
Cory Higgins 6-5 180lb
Another strong shooting guard, the senior averaged 16 points a game and nearly 35% from 3 point range. Higgins knew how do score and did it well throughout his career. His freshman season only averaged 8 points a game, but every year after he averaged between 16 and 18 points a game. Great numbers.
Levi Knutson 6-4 200lb
Knutson took a big step up this previous season, raising his scoring average from 3 points a game to nearly 12. The Buffaloes need someone to follow in Knutson's footsteps and take a dramatic step up in talent and scoring.
Marcus Relphord 6-7 220lb
Relphord was the only other player to average double digits for Colorado at 11 points a game. Despite his taller size, he only managed 4 boards a game. In some sense this is a good thing for Colorado as they have less searching to do when it comes to rebounding (Andre Roberson is their returning leading rebound at nearly 8 a game).
The Buffaloes also graduated Javon Coney 6-3 210lb and Trent Beckley 6-9 240lb, but neither player saw significant time nor contributed significant stats.
Incoming Freshmen:
To replace the exodus of star guards and a pair of big men, Colorado was able to pick up some promising players in 3 guards and a power forward.
Jeremey Adams 6-5 200lbs
Adams is a transfer from Texas A&M. Rivals rated him a 3 star recruit. I couldn't find much info on him and I don't know for certain if he is eligible to play this season as he transferred in March of 2011 from A&M. NCAA rules dictate that most transfer students have to sit out a season. He has already used his redshirt at A&M. 6-5 is a good shooting guard height and he should match up well, in terms of size, to guys like C.J. Wilcox, or Scott Suggs. Not sure what kind of impact he can make, but with a few years of D-1 practice under his belt he should be a solid player for the Buffaloes.
Damiene Cain 6-6 215lb
ESPN has it right when they say Cain is an undersized PF at the high major levels. The Pac-12 is a high major conference and Cain will have difficulty scoring low against the big boys. Thankfully, for him and the Buffs, Cain has a nice outside shot and can make 3 pointers with reasonable accuracy. Unlike Jon Brockman, who was also an undersized paint player, Cain doesn't have the weight and strength to bang down low consistently. Look for Cain to play as a 3/4 hybrid.
Spencer Dinwiddie 6-3 160lb
Now I'm not one to normally bash on the smaller guys, but Dinwiddie is my size exactly and I have no idea how he is supposed to compete with guys like Terrence Ross or drive the lane against Aziz N'Diaye. Then again, there is a reason I'm here typing this article and not playing the game myself. Dinwiddie has obviously put in the effort and practice to be able to compete despite his thin nature. Dinwiddie is definitely a pass first guard with a slower shot.
Askia Booker 6-1 160lb
Another smaller guard, but a needed replacement in terms of skill set. He has a great shot even outside 20 feet and has some nice dribbling maneuvers that allow him to attack the lane. His major drawback is his tendency to force poor shots or passes in heavy traffic. Colorado will need to get him to calm down a bit and let the play develop more before hustling off a shot. If Booker can minimize his turnovers and get open for shots, he has a legitimate chance to be one of the leading scorers for Colorado.
Returning Players:
Colorado will have some size in their mix this next season with their smallest guy at 6-1 and a fair few between 6-5 and 6-9.
Shannon Sharpe 6-1 200lb
Nate Tomlinson 6-3 190lb
Andre Roberson 6-7 195lb
Austin Dufault 6-9 225lb
Trey Eckloff 6-10 235lb
Ben Mills 7-0 215lb
Looking over the roster, it seems like tall, skinny guys are the theme. Ben Mills will be giving up 60+ pounds to Aziz and even Eckloff is giving up 30+ pounds. Their incoming guards are thin, but those currently on the roster are big enough. Colorado would do themselves a favor by handing out protein shakes a little more often.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Shannon Sharpe 6-1 200lb
Nate Tomlinson 6-3 190lb
Jeremy Adams 6-5 200lb
Andre Roberson 6-7 195lb
Austin Dufault 6-9 225lb
The door is wide open for players to grab starting spots and this line-up is based merely on who got the most play time last season and who has the most experience. Overall this give their starting 5 decent enough size. UW certainly played its fair share of games with a similar line-up and it's not like we struggled to succeed.
What to Expect:
I don't see as pretty a year for the Buffaloes as I originally thought. After looking more closely at their roster I can't imagine that Colorado will win too many games. They should compete with ASU, Utah, and WSU. Maybe play decent enough against Stanford, OSU, or USC, but UW, UA, UCLA, Cal, and even UO should put a whooping on the newcomers. What I am most sad about is that neither Colorado nor Utah will play at Hec-Ed this season. I know myself and fellow Dawg Pack members were really looking forward to some fresh meat to torture and tease. Colorado misses the Washington road trip and also misses the South Cal schools at home. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing for the Buffs. USC won't be great this season and WSU definitely should not be that successful either. UW and UCLA both have some great talent on their respective squads so these two trips seem about equal strength for me. Georgia is the only "big name" team I see on their non-conference schedule so expect to see Colorado do well enough before Pac-12 play rolls around and then pushed around in conference plays.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)