Final Score: UW 80-DUKE-86
Well, at least it was close at the end. UW came back from another terrible first half to make the game somewhat competitive. After going down by up to 19 points several times, UW rallied at the end with a C.J. Wilcox 3-pointer at the end of regulation to make it a 6 point game. Unfortunately, the Huskies simply couldn't put together enough stops to truly get back in the game as time dwindled. Abdul Gaddy made it a 6 point game with a minute left and poor Duke free throw shooting kept the Huskies in the game. The night was off to an ominous start when Wilcox air-balled a his first 3-point attempt of the night (he went 2-7 from outside).
The end of the game was pretty strange. UW was without a post player due to Aziz N'Diaye leaving with some sort of knee injury (not sure if it's a sprain or something worse, I'll update when I hear more) and Darnell Gant fouling out. UW was also without its two star point guards and ended with Hikeem Stewart on the court for the final 30 seconds. Both Tony Wroten and Abdul Gaddy fouled out of the game.
Speaking of Tony Wroten, he has gone from a pass first guard to an attack 2 guard. He was one of the few players to really attack the lanes and get to the line. He went 6-8 from the free throw line on the night, another marked improvements from the first games of the year. He finished with a game high 23 points, 0 assists (bleh....), and 5 turnovers (this is normal for him, I am not surprised). He went 8-12 from the field, but could have gone 10-12 if he could make the easy lay-ins by using his opposite hand like a true college player.
Abdul Gaddy played a very quiet game opposite Wroten. Only 7 points on 2-4 shooting (0-2 from range) and went 3-5 from the line, a stat he and the rest of the team need to drastically improve on. What he did well is what he always does, 7 assists to 1 turnover. He is the calm to Wroten's chaos. I'd like him to attack the hoop more. Not necessarily take the shot, just drive to collapse the lanes and free up our shooters. He still looked slow on the court and hesitant at times. He did a much better job getting in towards the rim at the end of the game, but his efforts came too late.
C.J. Wilcox was excellent minus his outside shooting. He drove the lane hard throughout the final 20 minutes and consistently scored with a strange, yet beautiful leaping Superman-esque move to float the shot over the defenders. I don't know how he does it. He did it a few times last season as well and it is becoming his signature move in a way. His 22 points and aggressive attack of the hoop were great to see and were definitely needed, but yet again did not attempt a single free throw. I'm only OK with that because he scored in bunches and made his shots inside.
Terrence Ross was off tonight. He still managed 16 points but it took 17 attempts. He missed his AND1 opportunity and that was the only action he saw at the charity stripe. He is still very tentative about getting inside the paint at times and it really holds him back from his true potential. If he starts attacking with authority more often he'll average over 20 points a game just by getting to the free throw line. Ross did try to throw down a monster jam over Plumlee, but it rattled loose from the hoop.
Aziz N'Diaye looked solid tonight on the defensive end. He only had 4 points and 5 rebounds before injuring his knee. Hopefully nothing is torn and it is just a minor sprain allowing him to return quickly. We will miss his size in the paint and I imagine that UW might go with a 4 guard line up to start most games. This could put Tony Wroten in the starting 5. We may also see Martin Breunig or Desmond Simmons in the starting 5 if N'Diaye must sit out. He managed to contain Plumlee pretty effectively and moved well on the court. The defense as a whole rotated much better tonight.
As I write this, Kentucky just got beat by Indiana on a last second three. At least Karma is still punishing the wicked.
I also need to give Romar some credit. I'm going to pretend that he reads my articles and implemented the high post and full court pressure because I told him to. He finally used full court pressure with over 10 minutes on the clock and low and behold the game went from a 19 point deficit to 6 at the end of the game. The pressure forced Duke to take poor shots, turn the ball over, and it gave UW that many more opportunities. It worked just as I said it would. UW has terrific athletes who can run and gun all day. Full court pressure allows us many more chances at fast breaks and open lanes. The high post ran through Ross and Gant and led to the only good 3-point shots. UW was struggling to get their shooters open and when they were open, they missed. UW (and Duke) went 5-17 from deep. Well below the Huskies talent and potential.
What Needed Improvement:
Rebounding:
The Huskies should have dominated this aspect of the game, but Duke came out on top 37-33. Many of the Duke rebounds came off long misses that the Blue Devils tipped out to their guards who were not blocked out and contained by the Huskies. Those long offensive boards also led to at least 2 of the Blue Devils 3-pointers, which is exactly what I said would happen in my pregame analysis. Ross led the Huskies with 7 boards and Simmons collected 6. N'Diaye only had 5 on the night in his 17 minutes of play.
Shooting:
UW was not hitting the open baskets and missed several critical easy lay-ins that shut down whatever momentum the Dawgs had going. Our players need to knock down the open shots because they have been few and far between lately, it would seem. I know our guys can shoot and I know players have cold nights, but tonight it seemed like everyone was cold at once and that is absolutely killer.
Free Throw Shooting:
13-23...That is unacceptable. Thank the stars that Tony Wroten has been getting better and made 6-8 on the night. I'll take 75% shooting from the Dawgs just about any night. No other player had more than 3 makes for the Dawgs. Wilcox and Ross, our two best free throw shooters, combined for only 1 free throw. That is unacceptable. These guys need to get the ball and take their man to the rack for some good old fashioned basketball.
What was Good:
Gut and Drive:
After getting down early once more, the Huskies fought back and worked their asses off to get back in the game. After scoring only 26 in the first half, UW doubled their scoring with 54 in the second. If UW could have managed 35 or 40 in the first half, UW would have won with ease. Statistically the Huskies and Blue Devils were essentially identical outside of the poor shooting in the first 10 minutes. The tenacity displayed by Wilcox and Wroten was fantastic. These players are starting to feel the heat and are dying to get back to their winning ways.
Final Thoughts:
Tough week in the Big Apple for the Dawgs. They needed a big win, but came up short in both match-ups. All said, they Huskies looked much better than the maligned efforts they displayed in St. Louis and Nevada. No one in the Pac-12 plays like Duke or Marquette, which gives me hope that the Huskies can pretty much run the slate come conference and finished with 14, maybe 15 wins. If the Dawgs can win at least 13 and make the final game of the conference tournament, they should go into March with 22 wins or so and 9 or 10 losses. That should be enough for an NCAA bid, though it will be a low seed. The pieces are here, the will to win is coming into its own, and the Huskies are just a few mistakes away from being 6-2 or 7-1 even. Our team is young, but talented and can do a lot of damage when they get their heads in the right place. Let's get it done, boys.
Go Dawgs!
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Friday, December 9, 2011
Duke Game Preview
So if you haven't heard the news yet, Scott Suggs will be redshirting this season following a surgery in mid October on his foot to repair a broken bone. He was projected to return this week for the games in the Big Apple, but continuing foot pains slowed his recovery and places him more at a mid January return, leaving only 16 regular season games. Rather than play only a small section of his senior season, Suggs has opted to return next season. This could work out great in the long run, especially if Terrence Ross leaves early for the NBA. Right now, it sucks. We needed Suggs' senior leadership on the court, especially in crunch time situations where a cool head and sweet shot are critical. Anyways...on to Duke.
The Blue Devils are coming off a big loss to Ohio State and a more recent win over Colorado State. Duke enters the game as the Number 7 team in the nation with an 8-1 record. UW and Duke have not played each other since 1989 so all previous games between the two squads are essentially null and void. The only common thread between then and now is Mike Krzyzewski.
To say Duke is going to be a tough match-up is an understatement. There is a good reason why they are in the top 10 and why many people projected a win over Marquette, but a loss to Duke. Duke has a very potent line-up from top to bottom and their frontcourt is just as strong as their backcourt.
Five players are averaging double digit scoring for Duke thus far in the season (Andre Dawkins is averaging 9.6 ppg so I'm including him). Austin Rivers, son of Doc Rivers, leads the team with nearly 16 ppg. Four players have hit 10 or more 3-pointers this season led by Andre Dawkins with 20 makes on 43 attempts.
The Plumlee brothers, Mason and Miles, dominate the glass for Duke with Mason clearly the superior ball player. Mason is averaging 9.8 boards per game and has four double-doubles on the year. Miles is averaging a second best 5 board per game. The two account for nearly 50% of Dukes 33 rpg average. Mason is also averaging over 2 blocks per game and is as much of a threat on defense as offense.
Duke is rounded out by a pair of more than capable shooters in Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly. Each average over 12 ppg and 3 rpg. Curry is the assist leader with 3.3 per game, while also committing 2 turnovers per outing. Overall, Duke is averaging just as many assists as turnovers (13).
As with Marquette, Duke plays a pretty similar style of basketball. The differences come in a much better frontcourt than Marquette and a slightly better backcourt. The Duke perimeter players are all deadly play-makers, but are not as skilled in the rebounding or assist category.
Keys to the Game:
Rebounding:
If there is one category UW can capitalize on to keep themselves in the game or possibly win it, it is rebounding. Duke averages a very low 33 boards per game and two players make up half that number. Mason will not be shut down. As strong defensively Aziz N'Diaye may be, Mason is quicker and more skilled and N'Diaye will likely struggle to keep him contained. What this means in terms of UW's strategy is containing the rest of the Blue Devil squad and our backcourt crashing the glass hard. Keeping Duke's sharpshooters from getting a second chance at the hoop is going to be huge in limiting the number of open shots they get. There is no better time to take a 3-pointer than after an offensive rebound. At that point the defense has likely collapsed, leaving the perimeter open for easy jumpers.
Ball Control:
Abdul Gaddy gave up the last possession against Marquette with 34 seconds on the clock and the game tied at 75. Instead of UW taking the game winning shot, Gaddy threw a terrible pass that was deflected and recovered by Marquette. We cannot afford those types of situations ever. Our turnovers in general have been much higher than they should be, due to not only Tony Wroten's usual antics, but lately the unusually poor play of Gaddy. If UW wants to have any chance at an upset, they need to limit their turnovers and not give Duke extra possessions.
Pressure the Backcourt:
As good as Mason Plumlee is, he can be contained by limiting the touches he receives. The happens by containing the backcourt and forcing them to stay near the top of the key rather than on the wings where they can work the ball inside. Backcourt pressure will also help limit the number of 3-point attempts that Duke can take. If N'Diaye can somehow manage Mason and Miles, the backcourt will be able to breathe a little easier.
Projected Starting Line-Ups:
Duke:
Tyler Thornton 6-1 195lb (Andrew Dawkins is having back problems and is doubtful to play Saturday)
Seth Curry 6-2 180lb
Austin Rivers 6-4 200lb
Mason Plumlee 6-10 235lb
Ryan Kelly 6-11 230lb
Washington:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb
Final Thoughts:
Darnell Gant will likely draw the assignment on the tall, mobile, and sharp shooting Ryan Kelly. Wilcox will hopefully be put on shut down duty against Seth Curry, while Terrence Ross takes on Austin Rivers. Without Dawkins on the court, UW may stand a better chance of containing the perimeter shooting Duke is well known for. All things considered this is another tough, but perhaps winnable game for the Huskies. An upset here would go a long ways towards calming the fan base and establishing some confidence in the teams ability to get it done on the road. It will also give UW and the Pac-12 a marque win that will be extremely important in March for the selection committee. At this point, at least two projections leave out the Huskies from the NCAA and the highest seed they received in any projection is 10th. Unfortunately, a loss is a loss and a win is a win come selection time so while the close loss to Marquette may be a sort of moral win it does nothing for our record and chances at a fourth consecutive NCAA berth. The Huskies need to be firing on all cylinders, rotations on defense need to go smoothly, and shots need to drop.
Final Score Prediction:
UW-78 DUKE-84
The skill level of the Duke frontcourt is going to be extremely difficult for UW to match, giving them a great advantage they will be sure to exploit every chance they can. It should be a close game thanks to our perimeter players, but if our starters cannot get to the foul line we will be hurting. Thank god Tony Wroten draws fouls, if only he could make his shots. We need high percentage shooters like Ross and Wilcox stepping to the line to convert the easy baskets. I'm still quite pessimistic about our chances against Duke, but I'm hopeful they can at least make it a competitive game. While this may not exactly be a "must win" game for UW, it will certainly make their lives easier to just go out there and win.
Go Dawgs!
The Blue Devils are coming off a big loss to Ohio State and a more recent win over Colorado State. Duke enters the game as the Number 7 team in the nation with an 8-1 record. UW and Duke have not played each other since 1989 so all previous games between the two squads are essentially null and void. The only common thread between then and now is Mike Krzyzewski.
To say Duke is going to be a tough match-up is an understatement. There is a good reason why they are in the top 10 and why many people projected a win over Marquette, but a loss to Duke. Duke has a very potent line-up from top to bottom and their frontcourt is just as strong as their backcourt.
Five players are averaging double digit scoring for Duke thus far in the season (Andre Dawkins is averaging 9.6 ppg so I'm including him). Austin Rivers, son of Doc Rivers, leads the team with nearly 16 ppg. Four players have hit 10 or more 3-pointers this season led by Andre Dawkins with 20 makes on 43 attempts.
The Plumlee brothers, Mason and Miles, dominate the glass for Duke with Mason clearly the superior ball player. Mason is averaging 9.8 boards per game and has four double-doubles on the year. Miles is averaging a second best 5 board per game. The two account for nearly 50% of Dukes 33 rpg average. Mason is also averaging over 2 blocks per game and is as much of a threat on defense as offense.
Duke is rounded out by a pair of more than capable shooters in Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly. Each average over 12 ppg and 3 rpg. Curry is the assist leader with 3.3 per game, while also committing 2 turnovers per outing. Overall, Duke is averaging just as many assists as turnovers (13).
As with Marquette, Duke plays a pretty similar style of basketball. The differences come in a much better frontcourt than Marquette and a slightly better backcourt. The Duke perimeter players are all deadly play-makers, but are not as skilled in the rebounding or assist category.
Keys to the Game:
Rebounding:
If there is one category UW can capitalize on to keep themselves in the game or possibly win it, it is rebounding. Duke averages a very low 33 boards per game and two players make up half that number. Mason will not be shut down. As strong defensively Aziz N'Diaye may be, Mason is quicker and more skilled and N'Diaye will likely struggle to keep him contained. What this means in terms of UW's strategy is containing the rest of the Blue Devil squad and our backcourt crashing the glass hard. Keeping Duke's sharpshooters from getting a second chance at the hoop is going to be huge in limiting the number of open shots they get. There is no better time to take a 3-pointer than after an offensive rebound. At that point the defense has likely collapsed, leaving the perimeter open for easy jumpers.
Ball Control:
Abdul Gaddy gave up the last possession against Marquette with 34 seconds on the clock and the game tied at 75. Instead of UW taking the game winning shot, Gaddy threw a terrible pass that was deflected and recovered by Marquette. We cannot afford those types of situations ever. Our turnovers in general have been much higher than they should be, due to not only Tony Wroten's usual antics, but lately the unusually poor play of Gaddy. If UW wants to have any chance at an upset, they need to limit their turnovers and not give Duke extra possessions.
Pressure the Backcourt:
As good as Mason Plumlee is, he can be contained by limiting the touches he receives. The happens by containing the backcourt and forcing them to stay near the top of the key rather than on the wings where they can work the ball inside. Backcourt pressure will also help limit the number of 3-point attempts that Duke can take. If N'Diaye can somehow manage Mason and Miles, the backcourt will be able to breathe a little easier.
Projected Starting Line-Ups:
Duke:
Tyler Thornton 6-1 195lb (Andrew Dawkins is having back problems and is doubtful to play Saturday)
Seth Curry 6-2 180lb
Austin Rivers 6-4 200lb
Mason Plumlee 6-10 235lb
Ryan Kelly 6-11 230lb
Washington:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb
Final Thoughts:
Darnell Gant will likely draw the assignment on the tall, mobile, and sharp shooting Ryan Kelly. Wilcox will hopefully be put on shut down duty against Seth Curry, while Terrence Ross takes on Austin Rivers. Without Dawkins on the court, UW may stand a better chance of containing the perimeter shooting Duke is well known for. All things considered this is another tough, but perhaps winnable game for the Huskies. An upset here would go a long ways towards calming the fan base and establishing some confidence in the teams ability to get it done on the road. It will also give UW and the Pac-12 a marque win that will be extremely important in March for the selection committee. At this point, at least two projections leave out the Huskies from the NCAA and the highest seed they received in any projection is 10th. Unfortunately, a loss is a loss and a win is a win come selection time so while the close loss to Marquette may be a sort of moral win it does nothing for our record and chances at a fourth consecutive NCAA berth. The Huskies need to be firing on all cylinders, rotations on defense need to go smoothly, and shots need to drop.
Final Score Prediction:
UW-78 DUKE-84
The skill level of the Duke frontcourt is going to be extremely difficult for UW to match, giving them a great advantage they will be sure to exploit every chance they can. It should be a close game thanks to our perimeter players, but if our starters cannot get to the foul line we will be hurting. Thank god Tony Wroten draws fouls, if only he could make his shots. We need high percentage shooters like Ross and Wilcox stepping to the line to convert the easy baskets. I'm still quite pessimistic about our chances against Duke, but I'm hopeful they can at least make it a competitive game. While this may not exactly be a "must win" game for UW, it will certainly make their lives easier to just go out there and win.
Go Dawgs!
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