The Washington Huskies (3-0) take on the Saint Louis Billkens (2-0) this Sunday at 9am. This was supposed to be a homecoming game for not only Lorenzo Romar who spent a few years as the program's head coach, but also Scott Suggs. Unfortunately Suggs will not be healthy enough to play, still recovering from his foot surgery that took place just before the onset of the season.
The Billkens have been extremely stringent on defense this year, holding Tennessee State to 37 points and Southern Illinois to 42 points while scoring 71 and 61 respectively. Saint Louis was able to hold the two teams to 29% and 20% shooting respectively and completely shut down any offense they had to offer.
These numbers are a credit to the effort being put out by the Billkens players, but it is also a testament to the low level talent that Saint Louis has played thus far. SIU is averaging only 52 points on the year, while TSU is averaging about 56 points. I commend the Billkens for their job well done thus far, but I hardly expect this to be a true test of the Huskies' ability to cope with a good team on the road. Joe Lunardi currently has Saint Louis as a member of the "Next Four Out," making them a top 100 team, but well enough outside the top 50 that they should not be considered a huge threat. I fully expect this to be a somewhat competitive game due to the Billkens' ability to slow the game down to their tempo. With a 66 point average on the year, Saint Louis is not a high scoring team and will likely have troubles dealing with the high octane offense UW brings to the table.
Saint Louis is led by a pair of forwards who do a little of everything for their team. Brian Conklin is a 6-6 230lb forward with considerable muscle to power through the opposition defense. He currently leads the team in scoring with 12.5 points per game and third in rebounding at 4.5 per game. He is also 100% from the free throw line at 9-9, something Tony Wroten Jr. would be good to take note of. He is shooting 67% from the field and has yet to take a 3-pointer. Cody Ellis, on the other hand, is 50% from range and is second in scoring at 12 points per game. At 6-8 and 240lb, Ellis is another big body UW will have to contend with. Ellis is second in rebounding at 5 per game.
Kwamain Mitchell is the all around guy for the Billkens. With a team high 5.5 rebounds to go along with his 9 point average and 6 assists per game, the 5-10 175lb guard is a tough match-up for most teams. UW should be able to contain him with superior size and skill in the backcourt.
Saint Louis do have some size in the center with 6-11 240lb Rob Loe. He is more of a defensive presence than an offensive presence as shown by his less than stellar statistics of 2.5 points and 2.0 rebounds per game. He is 2-8 from the field and 1-4 from range, indicating the big man likes to move around the court. This could be more troublesome for UW who often depends on Aziz N'Diaye being able to stay closer to home and suck up the paint. This puts a bit more pressure on our guards' defensive efforts as they will not be able to guarantee a secondary defender in the post should their man beat them.
Backup center, John Manning, stands at 6-11 as well, but at only 200lb he resembles Washington's own Jernard Jerreau. He is a thin body with work in the weight room to be done before he can significantly contribute to the Billkens effort.
Predicted Starting Line-Ups:
Saint Louis:
Kwamain Mitchell G 5-10 175lb
Kyle Cassidy G 6-4 200lb
Dwayne Evans F 6-5 205lb
Brian Conklin F 6-6 230lb
Rob Loe F 6-11 240lb
Washington:
Abdul Gaddy G 6-3 185lb
C.J. Wilcox G 6-5 190lb
Terrence Ross G 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant F 6-8 230lb
Aziz N'Diaye C 7-0 260lb
Keys to the Game:
Rebounding:
This is a category UW should be dominate in, yet the past weekend showed the Husky faithful that there is work to be done in the paint. While several players are averaging very respectable numbers, the combined totals just are adding up as high as we might like. UW is currently averaging a bit over 41 boards per game, but I would like to see that number be closer to 45 a game. Washington has a chance to do some damage in the middle this Sunday as the Billkens currently grab less than 33 boards per game. UW is picking up 13 offensive boards a game compared to 8 for Saint Louis. This is a huge statistical advantage for the Huskies and they would do well to take advantage of that. Add in that the leading rebounder for the Billkens is a 5-10 guard and you have a recipe for what could be a strong rebounding outing for the Dawgs.
Backcourt Pressure:
The Huskies are strongest where the majority of the Billkens success comes from: the backcourt. The Huskies will need to provide stiff pressure on the perimeter to prevent entry passes to the frontcourt as well as allowing the Husky post players to step out and defend their men without risking too many open opportunities in the paint. If I was Lorenzo Romar, I'd be placing C.J. Wilcox on which ever guard is a stronger player. He has shown immense defensive capabilities and swats the ball with authority.
Get the Offense Going Early:
UW is known for slow starts on occasion, but such has not been the case as of late. UW has only been behind for 9 seconds this entire year. Take that in for just a moment. Only 9 seconds. Yes, the competition has been below average, but Washington has taken care of business and kept the lead, no matter how close the game got. They have done this by scoring early and in bunches. With 6 players averaging double digit scoring (I am including N'Diaye as his average is close enough) UW has a variety of scoring options they will need to utilize. By spreading the ball around, Saint Louis will struggle to contain the Husky offense and could be worn out early on if the Dawgs can pass well and quickly.
Final Score Prediction:
UW-85 SLU-70
The Husky offense is so fast that the Billkens will likely see a few more possession than they are used to. At the same time, the Billkens' style of offense will likely mean less opportunities than usual for the Huskies. I don't see the Saint Louis offense being able to compete with UW and I certainly don't expect the Billkens to find the same amount of defensive success this weekend as they are used to. SLU will remain close for the first 10 minutes or so until the superior UW bench wears down the SLU players at which point I expect Washington to breakout and take over.
Go Dawgs!
Showing posts with label Prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prediction. Show all posts
Friday, November 18, 2011
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Florida Atlantic University Game Preview
A quick update on conference foe Utah before we get into the FAU preview. Utah recently lost an exhibition game against DII opponent, Adams State 61-60. The game may have cost them more than their dignity. David Foster, their gigantic 7-3 senior center, is undergoing foot surgery that will keep him out indefinitely and possibly the entire season. They also lose junior guard Chris Hines for 2-4 weeks with a rib injury. Both players were hurt during the exhibition game. If the Utes were looking rough before, its even worse now.
Florida Atlantic is the returning Sun Belt champion, posting a 22-11 record, 13-3 in conference. With 4 returning starters and a line-up with 5 juniors and 3 seniors, the Owls have the experience and skill necessary to take the Sun Belt conference again. Joe Lunardi currently has FAU in one of the four play-in games as a 16 seed. The Owls return 3 of their top 4 scorers including leading scorer, Greg Gantt, at 14 points per game. Their top two scorers, Gantt and Raymond Taylor, are also their top returning 3 point shooters, each hitting about 33% with 60 or so makes.
FAU does lose their top rebounder, a category they definitely struggle in at only 33 boards per game. With their tallest player standing at 6-8 and Taylor at 5-6 it is no surprise that the Owls have trouble on the glass. This is an area where UW can gain a HUGE advantage using their clearly superior size. FAU will add a 7-1 transfer next season to their roster as he is currently sitting out his transfer year as per NCAA regulation.
Predicted Starting Line-Ups:
Florida Atlantic:
Raymond Taylor 5-6 145lb
Alex Tucker 5-11 165lb
Greg Gantt 6-2 205lb
Jordan McCoy 6-6 185lb
Kore White 6-8 245lb
Washington:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb
Keys to the Game:
Rebounding:
Washington should and will dominate the glass in this match-up. With such a ridiculous size advantage we can expect the Dawgs to come out with a +15 or more rebounding margin. This is the type of game where N'Diaye and Ross could both go for double doubles with points and rebounds as well as guys like Gaddy and Tony Wroten could possibly double-double with points and assists.
Push the Post Option:
This is a great time for UW to get some serious points in the paint, valuable experience for later in the season against bigger frontcourts and tougher match-ups. With N'Diaye having a 4 inch and 20lb advantage and Gant with 2 inches and 50lbs on his man, its tough to see either of them struggling significantly with posting up their man. Ross, Wilcox, and especially Gaddy will also have significant size advantages that will allow them to drive the lane as well as elevate for some nice three point attempts.
Force the Backcourt Pressure:
With our frontcourt having definitive size and skill advantages, the Dawgs can afford to push their backcourt defense a bit harder and cheat a little more on cutting off passes. The Owls scoring also finds most of its success on the perimeter so shutting down their guard play with tough, in-your-face defense will prevent many opportunities.
Final Score Prediction:
UW-94 FAU-60
As bad as GSU looks, FAU is a much better match-up for the Huskies. Not only is our backcourt anywhere from 4 to 12 inches taller than theirs, our frontcourt also has a huge advantage in size and strength. FAU is similar to UW in that their frontcourt is their weakness and the backcourt is their strength and our strength is much stronger than theirs by any stretch of the imagination. UW should have another dominate victory, but one in which our scoring in the paint will prove to be much more decisive than usual.
Florida Atlantic is the returning Sun Belt champion, posting a 22-11 record, 13-3 in conference. With 4 returning starters and a line-up with 5 juniors and 3 seniors, the Owls have the experience and skill necessary to take the Sun Belt conference again. Joe Lunardi currently has FAU in one of the four play-in games as a 16 seed. The Owls return 3 of their top 4 scorers including leading scorer, Greg Gantt, at 14 points per game. Their top two scorers, Gantt and Raymond Taylor, are also their top returning 3 point shooters, each hitting about 33% with 60 or so makes.
FAU does lose their top rebounder, a category they definitely struggle in at only 33 boards per game. With their tallest player standing at 6-8 and Taylor at 5-6 it is no surprise that the Owls have trouble on the glass. This is an area where UW can gain a HUGE advantage using their clearly superior size. FAU will add a 7-1 transfer next season to their roster as he is currently sitting out his transfer year as per NCAA regulation.
Predicted Starting Line-Ups:
Florida Atlantic:
Raymond Taylor 5-6 145lb
Alex Tucker 5-11 165lb
Greg Gantt 6-2 205lb
Jordan McCoy 6-6 185lb
Kore White 6-8 245lb
Washington:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb
Keys to the Game:
Rebounding:
Washington should and will dominate the glass in this match-up. With such a ridiculous size advantage we can expect the Dawgs to come out with a +15 or more rebounding margin. This is the type of game where N'Diaye and Ross could both go for double doubles with points and rebounds as well as guys like Gaddy and Tony Wroten could possibly double-double with points and assists.
Push the Post Option:
This is a great time for UW to get some serious points in the paint, valuable experience for later in the season against bigger frontcourts and tougher match-ups. With N'Diaye having a 4 inch and 20lb advantage and Gant with 2 inches and 50lbs on his man, its tough to see either of them struggling significantly with posting up their man. Ross, Wilcox, and especially Gaddy will also have significant size advantages that will allow them to drive the lane as well as elevate for some nice three point attempts.
Force the Backcourt Pressure:
With our frontcourt having definitive size and skill advantages, the Dawgs can afford to push their backcourt defense a bit harder and cheat a little more on cutting off passes. The Owls scoring also finds most of its success on the perimeter so shutting down their guard play with tough, in-your-face defense will prevent many opportunities.
Final Score Prediction:
UW-94 FAU-60
As bad as GSU looks, FAU is a much better match-up for the Huskies. Not only is our backcourt anywhere from 4 to 12 inches taller than theirs, our frontcourt also has a huge advantage in size and strength. FAU is similar to UW in that their frontcourt is their weakness and the backcourt is their strength and our strength is much stronger than theirs by any stretch of the imagination. UW should have another dominate victory, but one in which our scoring in the paint will prove to be much more decisive than usual.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
University of Washington 2011-2012 Preview
Back to Front. Left to Right.
Andrew Andrews. Alex Wegner. Brendan Sherrer. Jernard Jerreau. Martin Breunig. Shawn Kemp Jr. Hikeem Stewart. Desmond Simmons. Tony Wroten Jr. Scott Suggs. Aziz N'Diaye. Darnell Gant. Abdul Gaddy. Terrence Ross. C.J. Wilcox.
It has been a long time in the making (OK, so its only been since March, I'm anxious cut me some slack), but the 2011 season is just about here. 11:30am tomorrow I'll be lined up in front of Hec-Ed waiting for the 7pm Exhibition Opener against Seattle Pacific University. Sure it doesn't count towards our record, but after SPU beat Arizona last week, I'm pumped for a bit higher quality game (more on this in the game preview that will be up later today).
Washington finished the year with a disappointing loss to UNC in the NCAA Round of 32. UW had every chance to win the game, including a game winning opportunity with only seconds to go. Let us not remember these painful memories and think about the good things the team accomplished.
After a third straight NCAA appearance, Darnell Gant and Scott Suggs are poised to become the first Washington players in quite sometime, if not ever, to appear in four straight NCAA tournaments. Back to Back Pac-10 tournament Champions after a Pac-10 regular season title. UW finished the year 24-11, 11-7 in conference, good for third place. It was a disappointing season in the sense that UW was the unanimous pick to win the conference and after an an extremely proficient 6-0 start, it seemed as though UW could go undefeated in conference and dominate the title run. A 3 game losing streak to WSU, UO, and OSU on the road took away those dreams and Arizona took home the banner.
The biggest blow came soon after the tournament when Isaiah Thomas declared for the NBA draft. It was a somewhat surprising decision as Thomas had stated he would be coming back for his senior season. Thomas was drafted with the final pick and went to the Sacramento Kings.
UW is primed for another solid season, but a lot of questions remain with the graduation of three seniors and a star junior. How has the post developed? Who will step up to be the leader? Who will be the face of this team?
Key Losses:
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb
Holiday was a terrific defender who suffered a bit of a down turn towards the end of the year. This was slightly overshadowed at the beginning of the year when his offense seemed to have hit its peak. He was hitting his jumpers, dropping threes all over the place, and was playing with a fire under his shorts. The second half of the season, Holiday struggled to get his shot together. Regardless, Holiday had enough consistency to help the perimeter open shots and get the ball to the posts. UW will miss him most for his defensive and shot blocking capabilities. He was also a strong rebounder due to his lanky arms that seemed to come out of nowhere.
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb
Much like WSU will miss DeAngelo Casto, UW will miss MBA and what he brought to this team perhaps more than any other player. I know I cursed his name a thousand times for missed shots, poor free throws, etc, but it is because I saw how good he could play and it is frustrating when a player doesn't always meet his potential. MBA's senior season showed drastic improvement on his rebounding abilities, completing 10 double-doubles on the year. MBA also possessed some vicious dunking and blocking skills that made for exciting and entertaining plays each and every game. He was tough in the post and along side Aziz N'Diaye, the duo made up a brutal frontcourt that several teams struggled to match up against.
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb
The face and star of the Washington Basketball squad last season and years past for that matter. He was poised to return for a record shattering senior season. I.T. could have broke the points, wins, assists, and numerous other records. He would have gone down as perhaps the greatest to play for UW. Better than BRoy, Nate, Brockman, Pondexter, Hawes, the list goes on. He was a fantastic scorer, who's hard work and tenacious attitude carried him above and beyond the call of duty so many times. If you don't believe me, remind yourself of the fact that Isaiah Thomas played 123 minutes out of a possible 125 in the Pac-10 tournament, missing only 2 minutes and 2 offensive possessions against Oregon. He also made the perfect shot in the Pac-10 Championship game to win it all, in overtime. The board lights up as it drains through the net. That is the stuff you dream of as a kid and pretend to have happen every day in practice. Unreal. The NBA lockout is just one more reason I.T. should have stuck around.
As opposed to my previous previews, I'm going to look at UW's players a bit more in depth. I know them better and the fan base that reads these articles are primarily UW fans. I'll go class by class starting with the freshmen and moving up to the seniors.
Freshmen:
Desmond Simmons 6-7 220lb
Simmons redshirted last season after nagging knee pains kept him from his full potential. Simmons returns as one of the most hyped up defensive players in a while. People liken him to a bigger Quincy Pondexter or Justin Holiday with the aggressiveness and hustle ability of Jon Brockman. Simmons gets up and down the court, dives after balls, muscles bigger players out of his way, and does whatever it takes to get the win. He is a real scrapper that will prove to be a huge asset. Throw him in at the 4 behind Gant and we have ourselves a bit more solid frontcourt.
Andrew Andrews 6-2 195lb
Yes, his first name is essentially his last. No idea why his parents would do that to him...anyways...He and Romar agreed he would redshirt this season as he chose to come to UW instead of prep school after the graduation of Isaiah Thomas. He is a very solid point guard with great speed and passing skills. His defense needs improvement as he often gets tagged with sloppy and obvious fouls. Once Romar gets him aligned with the UW defensive ways, Andrew(s) will be one of the better guards to come through UW. We'll likely see him garner some play time tomorrow against SPU, but that will be the last of him this season (a player can participate in exhibition games during their redshirt season).
Alex Wegner 6-7 190lb
Wegner is a local walk-on from Vashon Island. He averaged 23 points and 12 rebounds his senior season and was a McDonald's All-American nominee. He is listed as both a guard and forward due to his ball handling skill. Combined with his size, Wegner make a solid 3 prospect, but one that will likely not see a ton of time outside of garbage minutes. Walk-ons don't get scholarships for a reason, they aren't quite ready to play at the next level. Who knows, in a year or two Wegner could see some play time. I certainly expect Brendan Sherrer to see some play time his senior season.
Hikeem Stewart 6-2 175lb
Younger brother to twins Lodrick and Rodrick Stewart, who both played for USC, Hikeem has a basketball family. As a guard, Stewart will likely see time behind Abdul Gaddy and fellow freshman, Tony Wroten Jr. He has a solid skill set for a 1 guard with some shooting ability to allow him to combo as a 2. Being able to play either guard position should see him more play time. If Stewart can get his defensive game together and make smart decisions on offense, I see no reason he can't expect 10 to 15 minutes a game.
Jernard Jarreau 6-10 195lb
Jarreau is a skinny kid. That much is obvious, but what is not obvious is that he grew 7 inches at the end of his high school era and kept the point guard skills he had developed at 6-3. Now he is 6-10 with the ability to play from the 1 to 4 without too much concern. If Jarreau can add another 20 to 30lb of muscle, he could really get low in the post to bang for boards and points. For now he may have to extend his game a bit further out and use his size and jump shot to create opportunities.
Martin Breunig 6-8 210lb
A strong forward prospect from Germany with Vietnamese heritage (his full name is Martin Phong Ni Watt Breunig, seems Vietnamese to me), Breunig averaged close to a double double with 15 points and 9 rebounds. He played in the NBBL in Germany as well as their FIBA U18 team in the European tournament. Breunig isn't a developed back-to-basket type player yet, but his face-up game is pretty good. He has a great mid-range jumper that can extend to the arc. His height allows him to get up on the glass, throw down some dunks, and block shots.
Shawn Kemp Jr. 6-9 265lb
Son of famous Sonics legend, Shawn Kemp aka the Reign Man, Jr has been through a lot to get to UW. He has spent the previous two seasons committed to two different schools, both of which he was declared ineligible for due to academic reasons. With his schooling in line and tutors in place, Kemp Jr. is ready to roll and provide support for Aziz N'Diaye in the post. Romar expects Kemp Jr. to play at 250lb and has already helped improve his conditioning and endurance 10 fold. Kemp reminds me a lot of Tyreese Breshers who retired from basketball due to an undisclosed medical reason. He is a big boy who can throw his weight around to attack the glass. I haven't seen too much of his game play outside of a small scrimmage, but he looks like a decent enough 5. Good enough to give N'Diaye some rest time without a huge drop off.
Tony Wroten Jr. 6-5 205lb
Wroten is likely the highest rated player to ever come to UW. A local prospect, Wroten chose to stay home and represent his city in a big way. Known for his extreme passing abilities, Wroten is a pass first guard with the ability to attack the lane when he wants to. At 6-5 he will prove to be a tough match-up for teams like OSU where a potential starter is Ahmad Starks, nearly a foot shorter at 5-7. Wroten has been known to throw passes his teammates cannot handle and is a bit turnover prone. Don't be surprised if Wroten leads the team in both assists and turnovers. Romar will need to reign him in a bit to help the team out. A big question is whether Wroten and Gaddy can share the court due to their passing guard nature. Gaddy says yes and I agree. Gaddy showed great shooting improvement before his injury, which would allow the two to play at the same time. Expect some spectacular plays between Wroten and Ross or Wroten and N'Diaye.
Sophomores:
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 185lb
Wilcox is one of the best 3 point shooters the UW has ever seen. He had a somewhat slow year marred by injuries that seemed to have shaken his confidence. All that being said, Wilcox proved himself at the end of the year when he scored 24 points in the second half against UCLA, averaged double digit scoring in the Pac-10 and NCAA tournaments, and drilled an all important 3 pointer in the Pac-10 championship game against Arizona. Wilcox has been overshadowed in the off-season due to the high expectations of Terrence Ross. When it comes down to it, Wilcox may be a less prolific player, but a much smoother shooter and he will find his success without a doubt. Expect Wilcox to be one of our top scorers and one of the best 3 point shooters in the conference and likely the nation. I predict Wilcox to be first off the bench if Wroten starts along with Gaddy, second if Wroten comes off the bench.
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Ross is without a doubt the most hyped player coming into the season. The coaches and players (both past and present) are assured that he is the best to come through the program. Isaiah Thomas says he'll be gone after this year and the NBA draft board certainly has him as a near lottery pick (top 10 picks). Romar thinks he could be one of the top scorers in the nation and if his play in the Pac-10 and NCAA tournaments were any indication of where his game is heading, I'd say Romar has it right. Ross had some utterly fantastic games throughout last season and struggled to find a groove in others. One thing is certain, Ross is not afraid to shoot and attack the hoop. He is extremely athletic, with long arms, a sweet shot, and the ability to throw down with the best. Ross should be a candidate for Pac-12 Player of the Year along with Jorge Gutierrez and Reeves Nelson.
Juniors:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
After a below average freshman year, Gaddy broke out at the start of his sophomore year with brilliant shooting and stellar passing only to be cut down with an ACL tear in practice. Now back in action, Gaddy looks as solid as ever. He is not wearing a brace and is expected to start tomorrows exhibition. Gaddy is player who, if he has an extremely proficient year, could head to the draft in the off season. I'd love to see him finish his four years and break Will Conroy's assists records.
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb
The 7 footer is even bigger this year, adding on at least 10 pounds of muscle. With an improved offensive game, N'Diaye is the biggest key to a successful season. If he has truly turned a corner with his hands and back-to-the-basket game, N'Diaye will be a terrifying player to go up against. He could easily average a double double. It would not surprise me to see him lead the conference in rebounding and blocks. Heck, he could be one of the top rebounders in the nation if he steps his game up. My biggest wish is for his free throw shooting to see drastic improvement. If Aziz can become a true post threat, UW could make a great run at the conference title as well as a deep run in the NCAA.
Seniors:
Brendan Sherrer 6-8 255lb
In his third season as a walk-on, Sherrer has begun to really draw notice from his peers and coaches. The Human Victory Cigar could soon put that title on the line as I suspect we will see Sherrer on the court for legitimate minutes and not just garbage time. How much remains to be seen, but don't be surprised when Sherrer is sitting at the scorers' table during the first half. From Dawg Pack to Player, Sherrer's journey is one I wish I could travel. He is a tough, dedicated player with a great attitude. He needs to start becoming more offensively minded as his time on the court is usually spent running around screening anything and everything. It's actually kind of comical. Sherrer is one of those players who can provide defensive depth during foul trouble situations or high speed games where rest is needed for our starters.
Scott Suggs 6-6 195lb
Scott Suggs is the third head of UW's three point shooting trio. Suggs showed off his newly acquired talents this past year driving the lanes and working the attack from more than just a spot and shoot position. Out currently with a broken foot, Suggs is hoping to return in time for the game in St. Louis, but likely will not return until the December match-ups against Marquette and Duke. Suggs could hae a breakout senior year as is common in Romar's tenure. He could be the rock the team leads on in close games as his senior leadership and experience is crucial.
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
Gant is the first redshirt senior Romar has ever had. Gant showed a big improvement in his rebounding game in the second half of last season and his scoring has also taken a turn for the better. Gant is another player the season success will rely on. UW does not have a ton of size combined with experience in the post and it will be important Gant remains healthy, active, and successful on both ends of the court. Gant needs to pick up where he left off: attacking the glass, and taking the open shots. I'd like to see him drive the lanes more when he receives the ball on the wings.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 185lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb (Will be out against SPU with a concussion, Desmond Simmons will start)
That may be the tallest line-up UW has ever garnered. Heck, our shortest player is 6-2. Without Aziz against SPU we get a glimpse of the struggles we could face down low when he finds himself in foul trouble.
What to Expect:
This could be another topsy turvy season for UW as a lot of questions remain unanswered. If UW can overcome their somewhat youthful roster and use their new found size to great advantage, UW should be dancing in March once again. Several players appear like they could be NBA level talent, its a matter of living up to the expectation. UW will also needs its bench to fill in the holes and step up their games. All told, UW should be one of the top teams in conference without a doubt. How good they can be remains to be seen. Romar always seems to have them ready by post season, but we have to get to the post season first before we can truly prepare for it. With Ross, Wroten, Gaddy, and Aziz leading the way I see no reason UW can't compete with UCLA and UA to take the title. KenPom is predicting a 12-6 conference record, but only predicts two losses (on the road at UA and UCLA, which I agree will be tough). Personally, a 14-4 record sounds about right. I fully predicted 18-0 and I fully believe it should have happened. This year I am a little more cautious and apprehensive. We could do as well as 16-2 or as bad as 12-6. A lot remains to be seen and hopefully the non-conference schedule answers our questions early so the Duke/Marquette games can be exciting and competitive wins for the Dawgs. Let's hope this team can pull through and break that Sweet 16 barrier. It would go a long way in helping our program step into the limelight as well as help our recruiting take the next step forward.
Go Dawgs!
Washington State Univeristy 2011-2012 Preview
WSU comes into the season with many more seasoned players than last year. The 2010-2011 WSU roster had zero seniors, but they did have three RS juniors and six regular juniors. This year WSU has four seniors and three juniors, but are without two key components of last years team. WSU finished 22-13 overall and 9-9 in conference. WSU also broke the streak of four straight wins by UW by winning two straight themselves before losing to UW in the Pac-10 tournament. WSU took part in the NIT where they won three games before losing to Wichita State 75-44. That's a whomping right there.
Key Losses:
DeAngelo Casto 6-8 255lb
WSU's best and only real legitimate post option. Casto was third in scoring at 12 points and first in rebound at 7 boards per game. Casto chose to take his talents overseas after his junior year due to financial reasons (he had a kid, good for him for stepping up and taking care of it). A much better choice than Venoy Overton...Casto provided depth and security down low that opened up the perimeter for Klay Thompson to do his thing. He was only of the few Cougars who could bang in the post with guys like Aziz N'Diaye and Josh Smith. While a tad undersized for a true 5, he gave his all and certainly had success. I have a feeling the Cougars will miss him more than Thompson soon enough.
Klay Thompson 6-6 202lb
After struggling 2 straight years against UW, Thompson found his own and opened up in all three games, scoring 43 in the tournament. Thompson could shoot lights out from nearly anywhere on the court. He was selected with the 11th pick in the NBA draft by the Golden State Warriors. Thompson was a decent defender, though what he did was mostly overshadowed by his extreme offensive capabilities. Faisal Aden and Reggie Moore will need to step their scoring up to help replace him.
Incoming Freshmen:
Greg Sequele 6-7 210lb
Sequele is an athletic 4 with great endurance, hustle, and tenacity. He needs to put in work developing his offensive game, but the Cougars should be happy with what he can bring on the defensive side of the ball. He attacks the glass well and is solid in transition plays. He is a good backup for Brock Motum and the other more senior players.
Davonte Lacy 6-3 190lb
Lacy is a combo guard with a great shot. He can penetrate the lane as well as drop back to the arc and hit. Lacy has the passing skills necessary to not only make the right decisions, but execute them as well. Lacy is known for occasionally forcing too fast of an offense and taking shots early, but that is something that good coaching can quickly amend.
Returning Players:
Reggie Moore 6-1 180lb
Marcus Capers 6-4 185lb
Faisal Aden 6-4 185lb
Will DiIorio 6-5 188lb
Mike Ladd 6-5 190lb
Abe Lodwick 6-7 208lb
Patrick Simon 6-8 214lb
Dave Wink 6-8 245lb
Brock Motum 6-10 230lb
Charlie Enquist 6-10 235lb
Moore, Capers, and Aden will likely be the backbone of the team's scoring ability. Lodwick and Motum will shore up the center with Enquist providing relief.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Reggie Moore 6-1 180lb
Faisal Aden 6-4 185lb
Marcus Capers 6-4 185lb
Abe Lodwick 6-7 208lb
Brock Motum 6-10 230lb
This seems like a decently sized line-up though it does make the 3 a tad smaller than some teams might like. Overall, these five players should have enough talent to keep the game close for the first two minutes until their thin depth begins to hurt them.
What to Expect:
WSU is going to be missing Thompson and Casto a bunch this year. They were the biggest reasons the Cougars were able to be so competitive last year. Just look at the Wichita State game or and of the WSU losses versus UW. In 90% of those games, Thompson and/or Casto struggled to get going offensively. WSU has a roster of secondary players outside of Aden and Moore. By that I mean, they would be coming off the bench for teams like UCLA, UA, and UW. Cal could use some of these guys to fill out their own bench, which is lacking in my mind. WSU will finish in the bottom half of the conference, likely somewhere between 7th and 10th. Maybe 6th if they can develop a solid post. Their perimeter will be their best threat.
Key Losses:
DeAngelo Casto 6-8 255lb
WSU's best and only real legitimate post option. Casto was third in scoring at 12 points and first in rebound at 7 boards per game. Casto chose to take his talents overseas after his junior year due to financial reasons (he had a kid, good for him for stepping up and taking care of it). A much better choice than Venoy Overton...Casto provided depth and security down low that opened up the perimeter for Klay Thompson to do his thing. He was only of the few Cougars who could bang in the post with guys like Aziz N'Diaye and Josh Smith. While a tad undersized for a true 5, he gave his all and certainly had success. I have a feeling the Cougars will miss him more than Thompson soon enough.
Klay Thompson 6-6 202lb
After struggling 2 straight years against UW, Thompson found his own and opened up in all three games, scoring 43 in the tournament. Thompson could shoot lights out from nearly anywhere on the court. He was selected with the 11th pick in the NBA draft by the Golden State Warriors. Thompson was a decent defender, though what he did was mostly overshadowed by his extreme offensive capabilities. Faisal Aden and Reggie Moore will need to step their scoring up to help replace him.
Incoming Freshmen:
Greg Sequele 6-7 210lb
Sequele is an athletic 4 with great endurance, hustle, and tenacity. He needs to put in work developing his offensive game, but the Cougars should be happy with what he can bring on the defensive side of the ball. He attacks the glass well and is solid in transition plays. He is a good backup for Brock Motum and the other more senior players.
Davonte Lacy 6-3 190lb
Lacy is a combo guard with a great shot. He can penetrate the lane as well as drop back to the arc and hit. Lacy has the passing skills necessary to not only make the right decisions, but execute them as well. Lacy is known for occasionally forcing too fast of an offense and taking shots early, but that is something that good coaching can quickly amend.
Returning Players:
Reggie Moore 6-1 180lb
Marcus Capers 6-4 185lb
Faisal Aden 6-4 185lb
Will DiIorio 6-5 188lb
Mike Ladd 6-5 190lb
Abe Lodwick 6-7 208lb
Patrick Simon 6-8 214lb
Dave Wink 6-8 245lb
Brock Motum 6-10 230lb
Charlie Enquist 6-10 235lb
Moore, Capers, and Aden will likely be the backbone of the team's scoring ability. Lodwick and Motum will shore up the center with Enquist providing relief.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Reggie Moore 6-1 180lb
Faisal Aden 6-4 185lb
Marcus Capers 6-4 185lb
Abe Lodwick 6-7 208lb
Brock Motum 6-10 230lb
This seems like a decently sized line-up though it does make the 3 a tad smaller than some teams might like. Overall, these five players should have enough talent to keep the game close for the first two minutes until their thin depth begins to hurt them.
What to Expect:
WSU is going to be missing Thompson and Casto a bunch this year. They were the biggest reasons the Cougars were able to be so competitive last year. Just look at the Wichita State game or and of the WSU losses versus UW. In 90% of those games, Thompson and/or Casto struggled to get going offensively. WSU has a roster of secondary players outside of Aden and Moore. By that I mean, they would be coming off the bench for teams like UCLA, UA, and UW. Cal could use some of these guys to fill out their own bench, which is lacking in my mind. WSU will finish in the bottom half of the conference, likely somewhere between 7th and 10th. Maybe 6th if they can develop a solid post. Their perimeter will be their best threat.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
University of Utah 2011-2012 Preview
Utah comes into the Pac-12 looking much worse off than they did in football. A 13-18 season, 6-10 in the Mountain West Conference, does not bode well in what is definitely a stronger conference. Utah comes in missing a lot of past seasons players. Let's look quickly at a list of everyone they lost and then we will pursue a more in depth look at the key losses for the Utes.
Players Lost:
Jay Watkins 6-8 215lb
Chris Kupets 6-0 175lb
Antonio DiMaria 6-6 195lb
Will Clyburn 6-7 200lb
Shawn Glover 6-7 195lb
Seth Tippetts 6-8 235lb
J.J. O'Brien 6-7 215lb
Neal Monson 6-10 230lb
Dominique Lee 6-4 205lb
Michael Hodgman 6-1 175lb
Preston Guiot 6-0 185lb
Josh Fuller 6-7 210lb
Count it, 12 players down. 12. Wowza. Somehow they have managed to fill their roster back out with members from each class, including 5 freshmen. With only 4 returning players, not starters mind you just players in general, Utah is far and beyond the team with the most work to do. Anything better than a last place finish in the Pac-12 should be considered a success. Heck, I'd be amazed if they pull off 10 wins total with this kind of turn over. Sure they are bringing in players with some experience, but the Utes will be missing a lot of team cohesion and chemistry that is extremely important in winning close games and staying in what could otherwise be complete blowouts. If Utah and Colorado thought they were being stepped on in football, just wait until basketball season when UW, UA, and UCLA come marching in to greet them properly. Utah missing playing UW and WSU on the road as well as UCLA and USC at home. So Utah will play UA and Cal twice as well as UW and UCLA once, which most fans on either side of the ball should chalk up as 6 losses for Utah. The opposing team must be certain to never overlook a team, even one as beat up as Utah. Anyone can be beaten on a given day. Just look at SPU who beat Arizona by 1 in Arizona. Arizona was also down 12 at one point to Humboldt State in their most recent exhibition and only pulled out the win in the final 4 minutes or so when foul shots allowed Arizona to keep their lead. With that in mind, let's look at who the key losses are this off season.
Key Losses:
Will Clyburn 6-7 200lb
With a team leading 17 points and 8 rebounds a game, Clyburn was the heart, soul, and star of the Utah basketball team. He also led the team in steals per game and 3 point shooting percentage. Keep in mind Clyburn also made twice as many 3 pointers than anyone else on the roster, so it was not just a "fluke" or low attempt number that gave him such a good percentage. He will be greatly missed.
Jay Watkins 6-8 215lb
Older brother of returning leading scorer, Josh Watkins, Jay was third in scoring at nearly 15 points per game and had a team high 3.5 assists per game. Unfortunately, he also had a team high 3.4 turnovers which essentially negates whatever good he did for the team.
J.J. O'Brien 6-7 215lb
With 7 points and 6 rebounds a game (good for second on the team) O'Brien was another solid wing lost by the Utes this past year. I can't comment too much on what any of these players brought to their teams outside the statistics I've found as I really didn't watch them play last year. All I know is that Utah will be hurting in a very bad way.
Incoming Freshmen:
Kareem Storey 6-0 190lb
Storey is known to be a solid scorer with the ability to hit inside with a good driving attack as well as outside with a decent 3 pointer. He does force a lot of shots, hordes the ball, and often lacks the court vision to see open teammates. Storey could be more of a hindrance than an asset for Utah, but he is a college level player, which Utah would have been severely lacking otherwise.
Anthony Odunsi 6-3 195lb
Odunsi is a combination guard, much like Isaiah Thomas, but not nearly as skilled and lacking a consistent 3 pointer. He is a solid rebounder with the strength to bounce around in the lanes. He seems like a much more reliable point guard prospect for Utah.
George Matthews 6-6 190lb
Matthews has a great scoring skill set. At 6-6 he can shoot over players in the lane and at the post. He can also finish outside the arc, which forces defenders to stay honest at all times. He energy level can waver at times on offense and defense, occasionally forcing shots or letting the opposition blow by him.
Utah also brings in 3 JC transfers, plus 7 other transfers/redshirts.
Returning Players:
David Foster 7-3 255lb
Josh Watkins 6-0 200lb
Jason Washburn 7-0 230lb
Chris Hines 6-0 195lb
Well that was easier than usual.
Predicted Starting Line-Up
Josh Watkins 6-0 200lb
David Foster 7-3 255lb
And that's about as far as I can guess. They have so many incoming players I can't even begin to ponder who will be in their starting 5 outside those two. It's anyone's to take.
What to Expect:
Don't expect Utah to come close to competing. Even ASU and WSU should be able to make Utah look bad. Utah does return some size in a pair of 7 footers, but neither has shown too much offensive promise yet. Defensively they are a dangerous duo, especially if they could play on the court at the same time. Utah will be lucky to win 3 or 4 games in conference. If they manage to string together some sort of consistent starting 5 and find some decent enough bench players, Utah could struggle out of the basement to maybe 11th or 10th place. Higher than that would be asking far too much of the players and coaching staff. Utah won't be competitive in conference for at least another 2 or 3 year, in my opinion.
Players Lost:
Jay Watkins 6-8 215lb
Chris Kupets 6-0 175lb
Antonio DiMaria 6-6 195lb
Will Clyburn 6-7 200lb
Shawn Glover 6-7 195lb
Seth Tippetts 6-8 235lb
J.J. O'Brien 6-7 215lb
Neal Monson 6-10 230lb
Dominique Lee 6-4 205lb
Michael Hodgman 6-1 175lb
Preston Guiot 6-0 185lb
Josh Fuller 6-7 210lb
Count it, 12 players down. 12. Wowza. Somehow they have managed to fill their roster back out with members from each class, including 5 freshmen. With only 4 returning players, not starters mind you just players in general, Utah is far and beyond the team with the most work to do. Anything better than a last place finish in the Pac-12 should be considered a success. Heck, I'd be amazed if they pull off 10 wins total with this kind of turn over. Sure they are bringing in players with some experience, but the Utes will be missing a lot of team cohesion and chemistry that is extremely important in winning close games and staying in what could otherwise be complete blowouts. If Utah and Colorado thought they were being stepped on in football, just wait until basketball season when UW, UA, and UCLA come marching in to greet them properly. Utah missing playing UW and WSU on the road as well as UCLA and USC at home. So Utah will play UA and Cal twice as well as UW and UCLA once, which most fans on either side of the ball should chalk up as 6 losses for Utah. The opposing team must be certain to never overlook a team, even one as beat up as Utah. Anyone can be beaten on a given day. Just look at SPU who beat Arizona by 1 in Arizona. Arizona was also down 12 at one point to Humboldt State in their most recent exhibition and only pulled out the win in the final 4 minutes or so when foul shots allowed Arizona to keep their lead. With that in mind, let's look at who the key losses are this off season.
Key Losses:
Will Clyburn 6-7 200lb
With a team leading 17 points and 8 rebounds a game, Clyburn was the heart, soul, and star of the Utah basketball team. He also led the team in steals per game and 3 point shooting percentage. Keep in mind Clyburn also made twice as many 3 pointers than anyone else on the roster, so it was not just a "fluke" or low attempt number that gave him such a good percentage. He will be greatly missed.
Jay Watkins 6-8 215lb
Older brother of returning leading scorer, Josh Watkins, Jay was third in scoring at nearly 15 points per game and had a team high 3.5 assists per game. Unfortunately, he also had a team high 3.4 turnovers which essentially negates whatever good he did for the team.
J.J. O'Brien 6-7 215lb
With 7 points and 6 rebounds a game (good for second on the team) O'Brien was another solid wing lost by the Utes this past year. I can't comment too much on what any of these players brought to their teams outside the statistics I've found as I really didn't watch them play last year. All I know is that Utah will be hurting in a very bad way.
Incoming Freshmen:
Kareem Storey 6-0 190lb
Storey is known to be a solid scorer with the ability to hit inside with a good driving attack as well as outside with a decent 3 pointer. He does force a lot of shots, hordes the ball, and often lacks the court vision to see open teammates. Storey could be more of a hindrance than an asset for Utah, but he is a college level player, which Utah would have been severely lacking otherwise.
Anthony Odunsi 6-3 195lb
Odunsi is a combination guard, much like Isaiah Thomas, but not nearly as skilled and lacking a consistent 3 pointer. He is a solid rebounder with the strength to bounce around in the lanes. He seems like a much more reliable point guard prospect for Utah.
George Matthews 6-6 190lb
Matthews has a great scoring skill set. At 6-6 he can shoot over players in the lane and at the post. He can also finish outside the arc, which forces defenders to stay honest at all times. He energy level can waver at times on offense and defense, occasionally forcing shots or letting the opposition blow by him.
Utah also brings in 3 JC transfers, plus 7 other transfers/redshirts.
Returning Players:
David Foster 7-3 255lb
Josh Watkins 6-0 200lb
Jason Washburn 7-0 230lb
Chris Hines 6-0 195lb
Well that was easier than usual.
Predicted Starting Line-Up
Josh Watkins 6-0 200lb
David Foster 7-3 255lb
And that's about as far as I can guess. They have so many incoming players I can't even begin to ponder who will be in their starting 5 outside those two. It's anyone's to take.
What to Expect:
Don't expect Utah to come close to competing. Even ASU and WSU should be able to make Utah look bad. Utah does return some size in a pair of 7 footers, but neither has shown too much offensive promise yet. Defensively they are a dangerous duo, especially if they could play on the court at the same time. Utah will be lucky to win 3 or 4 games in conference. If they manage to string together some sort of consistent starting 5 and find some decent enough bench players, Utah could struggle out of the basement to maybe 11th or 10th place. Higher than that would be asking far too much of the players and coaching staff. Utah won't be competitive in conference for at least another 2 or 3 year, in my opinion.
Monday, October 31, 2011
University of Southern California: 2011-2012 Preview
USC is coming off a tipsy turvy year. USC was part of the 8 teams who had to play their way into the NCAA tournament where they lost to the miracle VCU team who shocked college basketball like Butler last season. USC finished 19-15 overall and 10-8 in conference, one game back from UW.
Unfortunately for USC, the Trojans look to be taking a huge step backwards after graduating 4 seniors and junior, Nikola Vucevic. Alex Stephenson and Nikola Vucevic combined for 27 points and 20 rebounds a game in what was one of the best frontcourt duos in the nation. Stephenson was .2 points and .8 rebounds from averaging a double-double along with Vucevic.
After losing so much size, experience, and talent the Trojans will have a lot of work to do, especially in the frontcourt. Their backcourt was looking fairly solid until Jio Fontan, last season's second leading scorer, blew out his knee during their Brazilian tour. He had season ending surgery and will not return until 2012-2013. The Trojans will likely be without Curtis Washington this season as he suffered a torn labrum (shoulder injury). The Trojans' new 7 foot center, Dwayne Dedmon, suffered a broken hand in mid October that has kept his practice limited for the past few weeks (common recovery time is 2-3 weeks for the injury he suffered, so he should be back to full mobility in his hand quite soon).
As you can see its been a rough off season for USC, so much so that during the Pac-12 media day Trojan coach, Kevin O'Neil, made this statement: "If Mo gets hurt we can't really play the game. ... We'd have to start a freshman point guard and that would be a disaster. ... I need him (Jones) to do more all the time. ... His impact on our team is unbelievable. If he's in trouble or gets hurt, don't come to our games because it will be ugly."
Key Losses:
Alex Stephenson 6-10 250lb
A big man with a big game. The second best rebounder in the conference behind teammate Nikola Vucevic, Stephenson was a big, talented body who helped USC battle their way to the NCAA. Stephenson had a strong inside game, but his shooting from range struggled a bit in comparison to his counterpart.
Nikola Vucevic 6-10 240lb
A top prospect in the Pac-10, Vucevic was drafted with the 16th overall pick in the NBA draft. He averaged 17 points and over 10 boards per game. Dominating is the only way to describe him. He could push his weight around inside and drop the long ball every now and then. USC will be missing him greatly.
Jio Fontan 6-0 170lb
Fontan has a terrific junior season. Second in scoring at 11 ppg and first on the team with 4 assists per game, Fontan was the guard they needed after losing a lot of backcourt talent the previous seasons. He was going to be the saving grace for the Trojan until his knee injury. He'll be back next season.
Incoming Freshmen:
Alexis Moore 6-2 180lb
Moore adds some much needed depth at the PG position. He is a solid passer who has been developing his shooting game with relative success. His biggest problems lie in his form when passing and a tendency to take too many shots. Moore will have to quickly learn how to play at the collegiate level because Maurice Jones is going to need a hand.
Byron Wesley 6-5 210lb
Wesley will be a terrific 2/3 for the Trojans if he can add a 3 point shot to his arsenal. He has a solid mid-range game that is tough to stop with his strength and height. He strikes me as a less talented, but stronger Terrence Ross. Regardless, the backcourt is USC's weak point Wesley could find himself getting immediate play time.Haven't heard or seen much about his defensive skills so I can't comment on what type of impact he could have there, but at 210lbs he can bang with the best of them on the outside.
USC also added two JC transfers in 7-1 260lb, James Blasczyk, and 6-3 180lb, Greg Allen. Both players could bring in much needed experience to an underdeveloped team.
Returning Players:
Maurice Jones 5-7 155lb
Tyler Sugiyama 5-10 150lb
Daniel Munoz 5-10 175lb
Eric Strangis 6-4 190lb
Daniel Dragovic 6-5 195lb
Aaron Fuller 6-6 235lb
Garrett Jackson 6-6 225lb
Evan Smith 6-7 225lb
Curtis Washington 6-10 245lb
Not a whole lot of big name talent coming back for USC. Like O'Neill said, if Maurice gets hurt then the Trojans are in for a world of hurt. The talent coming in doesn't come close to replacing the talent going out and honestly, the talent remaining is far from spectacular with all the injuries they have sustained. That being said, USC should not be the worst team in conference. They have enough size and "veteran" players win against teams like Utah and ASU, maybe even WSU.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Maurice Jones 5-7 155lb
Alexis Moore 6-2 180lb
Garrett Jackson 6-6 225lb
Curtis Washington 6-10 245lb
James Blasczyk 7-1 260lb
Look at that line-up. Recognize anyone from last season? Jones is the only player who had an impact last season for USC at nearly 10 points and over 3 assists per game. Jackson played in all but one game for USC, though he only averaged 3 points.
What to Expect:
USC is going to have to do all it can to keep its guards healthy as well as find a way to get the frontcourt developing. Not a lot of talent to be seen here and they'll be scrapping for every win they can get. USC has a tough match-up as their last non-conference game against Kansas. They also face Georgia (who UW beat in the NCAA last season) and New Mexico (who UW beat two season ago in the NCAA). USC will have a losing record and finish in the bottom four of the conference. I'd be surprised if they finished higher than 8th. Utah will keep USC out of the basement, but not far from it. Keep your heads up Trojan fans. There is always football to look forward to.
Unfortunately for USC, the Trojans look to be taking a huge step backwards after graduating 4 seniors and junior, Nikola Vucevic. Alex Stephenson and Nikola Vucevic combined for 27 points and 20 rebounds a game in what was one of the best frontcourt duos in the nation. Stephenson was .2 points and .8 rebounds from averaging a double-double along with Vucevic.
After losing so much size, experience, and talent the Trojans will have a lot of work to do, especially in the frontcourt. Their backcourt was looking fairly solid until Jio Fontan, last season's second leading scorer, blew out his knee during their Brazilian tour. He had season ending surgery and will not return until 2012-2013. The Trojans will likely be without Curtis Washington this season as he suffered a torn labrum (shoulder injury). The Trojans' new 7 foot center, Dwayne Dedmon, suffered a broken hand in mid October that has kept his practice limited for the past few weeks (common recovery time is 2-3 weeks for the injury he suffered, so he should be back to full mobility in his hand quite soon).
As you can see its been a rough off season for USC, so much so that during the Pac-12 media day Trojan coach, Kevin O'Neil, made this statement: "If Mo gets hurt we can't really play the game. ... We'd have to start a freshman point guard and that would be a disaster. ... I need him (Jones) to do more all the time. ... His impact on our team is unbelievable. If he's in trouble or gets hurt, don't come to our games because it will be ugly."
Key Losses:
Alex Stephenson 6-10 250lb
A big man with a big game. The second best rebounder in the conference behind teammate Nikola Vucevic, Stephenson was a big, talented body who helped USC battle their way to the NCAA. Stephenson had a strong inside game, but his shooting from range struggled a bit in comparison to his counterpart.
Nikola Vucevic 6-10 240lb
A top prospect in the Pac-10, Vucevic was drafted with the 16th overall pick in the NBA draft. He averaged 17 points and over 10 boards per game. Dominating is the only way to describe him. He could push his weight around inside and drop the long ball every now and then. USC will be missing him greatly.
Jio Fontan 6-0 170lb
Fontan has a terrific junior season. Second in scoring at 11 ppg and first on the team with 4 assists per game, Fontan was the guard they needed after losing a lot of backcourt talent the previous seasons. He was going to be the saving grace for the Trojan until his knee injury. He'll be back next season.
Incoming Freshmen:
Alexis Moore 6-2 180lb
Moore adds some much needed depth at the PG position. He is a solid passer who has been developing his shooting game with relative success. His biggest problems lie in his form when passing and a tendency to take too many shots. Moore will have to quickly learn how to play at the collegiate level because Maurice Jones is going to need a hand.
Byron Wesley 6-5 210lb
Wesley will be a terrific 2/3 for the Trojans if he can add a 3 point shot to his arsenal. He has a solid mid-range game that is tough to stop with his strength and height. He strikes me as a less talented, but stronger Terrence Ross. Regardless, the backcourt is USC's weak point Wesley could find himself getting immediate play time.Haven't heard or seen much about his defensive skills so I can't comment on what type of impact he could have there, but at 210lbs he can bang with the best of them on the outside.
USC also added two JC transfers in 7-1 260lb, James Blasczyk, and 6-3 180lb, Greg Allen. Both players could bring in much needed experience to an underdeveloped team.
Returning Players:
Maurice Jones 5-7 155lb
Tyler Sugiyama 5-10 150lb
Daniel Munoz 5-10 175lb
Eric Strangis 6-4 190lb
Daniel Dragovic 6-5 195lb
Aaron Fuller 6-6 235lb
Garrett Jackson 6-6 225lb
Evan Smith 6-7 225lb
Curtis Washington 6-10 245lb
Not a whole lot of big name talent coming back for USC. Like O'Neill said, if Maurice gets hurt then the Trojans are in for a world of hurt. The talent coming in doesn't come close to replacing the talent going out and honestly, the talent remaining is far from spectacular with all the injuries they have sustained. That being said, USC should not be the worst team in conference. They have enough size and "veteran" players win against teams like Utah and ASU, maybe even WSU.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Maurice Jones 5-7 155lb
Alexis Moore 6-2 180lb
Garrett Jackson 6-6 225lb
Curtis Washington 6-10 245lb
James Blasczyk 7-1 260lb
Look at that line-up. Recognize anyone from last season? Jones is the only player who had an impact last season for USC at nearly 10 points and over 3 assists per game. Jackson played in all but one game for USC, though he only averaged 3 points.
What to Expect:
USC is going to have to do all it can to keep its guards healthy as well as find a way to get the frontcourt developing. Not a lot of talent to be seen here and they'll be scrapping for every win they can get. USC has a tough match-up as their last non-conference game against Kansas. They also face Georgia (who UW beat in the NCAA last season) and New Mexico (who UW beat two season ago in the NCAA). USC will have a losing record and finish in the bottom four of the conference. I'd be surprised if they finished higher than 8th. Utah will keep USC out of the basement, but not far from it. Keep your heads up Trojan fans. There is always football to look forward to.
Monday, October 24, 2011
University of Oregon Preview 2011-2012
Dana Altman turned what looked to be an absolutely dismal season due to transfers, graduation, and early departure to overseas play into respectable 7-11 conference finish, 21-18 overall. Oregon ended up competing in and winning the CBI basketball tournament, though on very questionable conditions due to their terrible court design and paint job. Some magazines and reporters are predicting Oregon to make a run at the top of the conference, even predicting finishes as high as fourth places, ahead of UW. While Cal finishing in the top 4 is very plausible, Oregon finishing in the top 4 seems down right silly to me. They were a mediocre team last season who do have some incoming talent so I expect them to finish around the middle of the Pac again this season. Oregon graduated 2 seniors this past year and have brought in 5 recruits to fill out the roster.
Key Losses:
Joevan Catron 6-6 245lb
Catron was a huge part of the Duck's success. A very undersized forward at 6-6, Catron used his weight to have his way down low on the block. He led the team in points and rebounds at 16 points and 7 boards per game. He will be a tough man to replace, but with two incoming forwards at 6-7 and 6-9 the Ducks look to be a bit taller and more capable in the post.
Jay-R Stowbridge 5-11 180lb
Stowbridge was third on the team in scoring at just under 10 points a game. He was a fast guard with some solid ability at driving the lane. While not a prolific scorer, he had a good enough 3 point shot to demand coverage outside and in.
Malcolm Armstead 6-0 190lb
Armstead nearly transferred prior to the 2010-2011 season, but Altman managed to convince him to stay and effectively saved the Ducks from being trampled on by the conference. The convincing didn't seem to last as Armstead transferred to Wichita State in the off-season. Armstead was a very strong guard for Oregon. He averaged over 8 points per game as well as team highs in assists at 4.4 per game and steals at 2.3 per game. He was a terrific defender with fast hands and feet.
Incoming Freshmen:
Carlos Emory 6-7 225lb
Emory is labeled as a tenacious player, but lacks the overall skills and size to compete at a high level. He will likely be a role player for the Ducks without too much significant impact. He will likely need a year or two to develop, but in high foul situations he will be a bigger body they can use to take up space on the court.
Austin Kuemper 6-9 240lb
Kuemper is a better post prospect for the Ducks. Originally listed at 215lb, Kuemper has appeared to have put on some weight during the summer and his size is likely inflated (as per usual in basketball). He has a nice mid range shot and decent post moves that allow him to score from a variety of places on the court. He has been known to struggle defensively when his head is not in the game. Hopefully Altman can get his head on straight and keep him in the weight room to make him a legitimate 4 at the High Major D1 level.
Bruce Barron 6-2 200lb
Barron is a solid shooting guard with a little more muscle and size than most. At 200lb he can be a tough match-up for opposing guards and has a high enough outside shot percentage to keep defenders from cheating in on him. He has been know to shoot a little more often than he should and needs to learn team ball a little better before his full impact can be achieved.
Brett Kingsma 6-1 165lb
Kingsma is the younger brother of UW's own Kristi Kingsma who was a prolific scorer for the Huskies. Brett had offers from UW, ASU, UO, and a few others and opted for the Ducks where he will likely find more play time as a guard. Brett can score with the best and showed of his impressive shot at the Washington vs Oregon game this past summer. Though a tad small for a top tier shooting guard at 6-1, he can elevate enough and put on enough ball handling moves to create shot opportunities for himself and others. Kingsma may find himself with some early conference struggles as he learn to compete with bigger, stronger guards.
Jabari Brown 6-3 200lb
Brown was a guard looked at by Washington and many thought he would end up at UW. The commitments of Hikeem Stewart, Tony Wroten, and Andrew Andrews likely turned Brown away as there would not be as much play time for the hot shooting guard. Reporters have debated whether Brown or Andrews is the better prospect out of Oregon and it really comes down to what kind of guard you are looking for. Andrews is a point guard, while Brown is a shooting guard. Brown and Kingsma should light up the court for the Ducks along with E.J. Singler.
Returning Players:
Johnathan Loyd 5-8 160lb
Garrett Sims 6-1 181lb
Nicolas Lucenti 6-3 212lb
Devoe Joseph 6-4 180lb
E.J. Singler 6-6 210lb
Olu Ashaolu 6-7 220lb
Jeremy Jacob 6-8 226lb
Tyrone Nared 6-8 210lb
Chris Larson 6-11 220lb
Tony Woods 6-11 250lb
E.J. Singler will be the star and face of this Oregon Ducks team. He was a tremendous player for the Ducks last season and will be just as good this next year (Kyle is still better). Tony Woods in a transfer from Wake College who has two years of experience under his belt, which should enable him to make an immediate impact for the Ducks who desperately need some talent in the post.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Johnathan Loyd 5-8 160lb
Jabari Brown 6-3 200lb
E.J. Singler 6-6 210lb
Austin Kuemper 6-9 240lb
Tony Woods 6-11 250lb
Season Predictions:
The Ducks have some decent size this year, but they still lack the overall depth to compete against the high level teams. I don't seem the Ducks finishing any higher than 5th in conference play and no lower than 8th. Oregon should certainly beat ASU, Colorado, Utah, and WSU. OSU, Stanford, and USC should be on a similar level to the Ducks and make for decent competition. I just don't see such a turn around from missing the NCAA and the NIT to compete for the top spot in conference and a spot in the NCAA. On the off chance the Pac-12 does get 5 teams in the NCAA, Oregon would be one of my picks for the 5th and final spot.
Key Losses:
Joevan Catron 6-6 245lb
Catron was a huge part of the Duck's success. A very undersized forward at 6-6, Catron used his weight to have his way down low on the block. He led the team in points and rebounds at 16 points and 7 boards per game. He will be a tough man to replace, but with two incoming forwards at 6-7 and 6-9 the Ducks look to be a bit taller and more capable in the post.
Jay-R Stowbridge 5-11 180lb
Stowbridge was third on the team in scoring at just under 10 points a game. He was a fast guard with some solid ability at driving the lane. While not a prolific scorer, he had a good enough 3 point shot to demand coverage outside and in.
Malcolm Armstead 6-0 190lb
Armstead nearly transferred prior to the 2010-2011 season, but Altman managed to convince him to stay and effectively saved the Ducks from being trampled on by the conference. The convincing didn't seem to last as Armstead transferred to Wichita State in the off-season. Armstead was a very strong guard for Oregon. He averaged over 8 points per game as well as team highs in assists at 4.4 per game and steals at 2.3 per game. He was a terrific defender with fast hands and feet.
Incoming Freshmen:
Carlos Emory 6-7 225lb
Emory is labeled as a tenacious player, but lacks the overall skills and size to compete at a high level. He will likely be a role player for the Ducks without too much significant impact. He will likely need a year or two to develop, but in high foul situations he will be a bigger body they can use to take up space on the court.
Austin Kuemper 6-9 240lb
Kuemper is a better post prospect for the Ducks. Originally listed at 215lb, Kuemper has appeared to have put on some weight during the summer and his size is likely inflated (as per usual in basketball). He has a nice mid range shot and decent post moves that allow him to score from a variety of places on the court. He has been known to struggle defensively when his head is not in the game. Hopefully Altman can get his head on straight and keep him in the weight room to make him a legitimate 4 at the High Major D1 level.
Bruce Barron 6-2 200lb
Barron is a solid shooting guard with a little more muscle and size than most. At 200lb he can be a tough match-up for opposing guards and has a high enough outside shot percentage to keep defenders from cheating in on him. He has been know to shoot a little more often than he should and needs to learn team ball a little better before his full impact can be achieved.
Brett Kingsma 6-1 165lb
Kingsma is the younger brother of UW's own Kristi Kingsma who was a prolific scorer for the Huskies. Brett had offers from UW, ASU, UO, and a few others and opted for the Ducks where he will likely find more play time as a guard. Brett can score with the best and showed of his impressive shot at the Washington vs Oregon game this past summer. Though a tad small for a top tier shooting guard at 6-1, he can elevate enough and put on enough ball handling moves to create shot opportunities for himself and others. Kingsma may find himself with some early conference struggles as he learn to compete with bigger, stronger guards.
Jabari Brown 6-3 200lb
Brown was a guard looked at by Washington and many thought he would end up at UW. The commitments of Hikeem Stewart, Tony Wroten, and Andrew Andrews likely turned Brown away as there would not be as much play time for the hot shooting guard. Reporters have debated whether Brown or Andrews is the better prospect out of Oregon and it really comes down to what kind of guard you are looking for. Andrews is a point guard, while Brown is a shooting guard. Brown and Kingsma should light up the court for the Ducks along with E.J. Singler.
Returning Players:
Johnathan Loyd 5-8 160lb
Garrett Sims 6-1 181lb
Nicolas Lucenti 6-3 212lb
Devoe Joseph 6-4 180lb
E.J. Singler 6-6 210lb
Olu Ashaolu 6-7 220lb
Jeremy Jacob 6-8 226lb
Tyrone Nared 6-8 210lb
Chris Larson 6-11 220lb
Tony Woods 6-11 250lb
E.J. Singler will be the star and face of this Oregon Ducks team. He was a tremendous player for the Ducks last season and will be just as good this next year (Kyle is still better). Tony Woods in a transfer from Wake College who has two years of experience under his belt, which should enable him to make an immediate impact for the Ducks who desperately need some talent in the post.
Predicted Starting Line-Up:
Johnathan Loyd 5-8 160lb
Jabari Brown 6-3 200lb
E.J. Singler 6-6 210lb
Austin Kuemper 6-9 240lb
Tony Woods 6-11 250lb
Season Predictions:
The Ducks have some decent size this year, but they still lack the overall depth to compete against the high level teams. I don't seem the Ducks finishing any higher than 5th in conference play and no lower than 8th. Oregon should certainly beat ASU, Colorado, Utah, and WSU. OSU, Stanford, and USC should be on a similar level to the Ducks and make for decent competition. I just don't see such a turn around from missing the NCAA and the NIT to compete for the top spot in conference and a spot in the NCAA. On the off chance the Pac-12 does get 5 teams in the NCAA, Oregon would be one of my picks for the 5th and final spot.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Pac-12 Men's Basketball Predicitions
Well, I ordered my Dawg Pack tickets today making me realize how close the season is to starting and that means getting this blog back up in running order again. What better place to start than with a final standings prediction?
This year we have Colorado and Utah joining the fray and, in my opinion, Colorado is the stronger addition as opposed to football where Utah is clearly a superior team. For those who don't know, Colorado is from the Big 12 and Utah from the MWC.
Last season Colorado was a 1 seed in the NIT tournament, losing by 1 point in the semi-finals to also 1 seeded Alabama of the SEC. They finished with a record of 24-14 (8-8 in conference). Their star, Alec Burks, led the team in scoring (20.1) and assists (2.9) as well as being second in rebounding (6.4). He was taken in the first round with the 12th pick by the Utah Jazz. Their second leading scorer, Cory Higgins, was a senior and has graduated as has their third leading scorer, Levi Knutson. This leaves SLU transfer, Marcus Relphorde, as the returning leading scorer with 11.5 points per game. Andre Roberson returns as the leading rebounder with 7.8 boards per game. Nate Tomlinson has the highest assists per game returning with 2.4 assists per game.
Utah finished 13-18 (6-10 in conference), losing in the quarter finals of the conference tournament to Nationally ranked San Diego State. Will Clyburn returns as the leading scorer with 17.1 ppg. Josh Watkins returns as the number 2 scorer at 14.5 ppg. Clyburn also lead the team in rebounding with 7.8 rpg. Josh Watkins returns as the leading assist member with 3.5 apg.
Colorado appears to be entering a rebuilding year after losing so much scoring, but the Huskies are in a similar situation and I feel like we are a much stronger team. Some might look at the above stats and argue that Utah will be a better contender in the Pac-12, but the Big 12 is much stiffer competition than the MWC.
I'll cover each of the Pac-12 teams in more detail in separate posts, but I thought a quick introduction would help make understanding my placement of each team more reasonable.
In reverse order:
12. Utah
11. ASU
10. WSU
9. OSU
8. Stanford
7. Colorado
6. USC
5. UO
4. Cal
3. UA
2. UW
1. UCLA
Right now, I think UCLA has a lot of size and skill that will be tough to beat. I believe we will split the series with each team winning at home. UW will hopefully make the competition a close and fun one.
I may amend this list as I go through the team stats, incoming players, etc., but at a first glance this was my gut instinct. The top 5 I'm pretty confident about. USC and Colorado could be flipped around. The bottom 5 are a mess in my opinion and could be tossed about in a few arrangements with Stanford nearer the top than the other 4.
This year we have Colorado and Utah joining the fray and, in my opinion, Colorado is the stronger addition as opposed to football where Utah is clearly a superior team. For those who don't know, Colorado is from the Big 12 and Utah from the MWC.
Last season Colorado was a 1 seed in the NIT tournament, losing by 1 point in the semi-finals to also 1 seeded Alabama of the SEC. They finished with a record of 24-14 (8-8 in conference). Their star, Alec Burks, led the team in scoring (20.1) and assists (2.9) as well as being second in rebounding (6.4). He was taken in the first round with the 12th pick by the Utah Jazz. Their second leading scorer, Cory Higgins, was a senior and has graduated as has their third leading scorer, Levi Knutson. This leaves SLU transfer, Marcus Relphorde, as the returning leading scorer with 11.5 points per game. Andre Roberson returns as the leading rebounder with 7.8 boards per game. Nate Tomlinson has the highest assists per game returning with 2.4 assists per game.
Utah finished 13-18 (6-10 in conference), losing in the quarter finals of the conference tournament to Nationally ranked San Diego State. Will Clyburn returns as the leading scorer with 17.1 ppg. Josh Watkins returns as the number 2 scorer at 14.5 ppg. Clyburn also lead the team in rebounding with 7.8 rpg. Josh Watkins returns as the leading assist member with 3.5 apg.
Colorado appears to be entering a rebuilding year after losing so much scoring, but the Huskies are in a similar situation and I feel like we are a much stronger team. Some might look at the above stats and argue that Utah will be a better contender in the Pac-12, but the Big 12 is much stiffer competition than the MWC.
I'll cover each of the Pac-12 teams in more detail in separate posts, but I thought a quick introduction would help make understanding my placement of each team more reasonable.
In reverse order:
12. Utah
11. ASU
10. WSU
9. OSU
8. Stanford
7. Colorado
6. USC
5. UO
4. Cal
3. UA
2. UW
1. UCLA
Right now, I think UCLA has a lot of size and skill that will be tough to beat. I believe we will split the series with each team winning at home. UW will hopefully make the competition a close and fun one.
I may amend this list as I go through the team stats, incoming players, etc., but at a first glance this was my gut instinct. The top 5 I'm pretty confident about. USC and Colorado could be flipped around. The bottom 5 are a mess in my opinion and could be tossed about in a few arrangements with Stanford nearer the top than the other 4.
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