University of North Carolina Review

Final Score: UW-83 UNC-86

It all came down to the wire and UW had the chance to win it, but threw it away. After getting up by 11 early thanks to Terrence Ross draining back to back threes followed by Darnell Gant nailing his own and Venoy Overton hitting an AND1 shot. With the game tied up UW committed two straight turnovers that allowed UNC to take a 6 point lead. UW fought back and got within 1 with 17 seconds to go thanks to a beautiful 3 pointer from Scott Suggs. UW fouled with 15 to go and UNC missed the front end of the 1 and 1. UW brought it down and Venoy Overton had his lay in swatted out of bounds with 7 seconds to go. Justin Holiday made a freshman mistake by keeping the ball above his head the whole time and when he tried to inbounds over the 6-10 John Henson the ball was tipped into UNC hands. UW fouled and UNC drained both their free throws. Overton hucked up a half court pass intended for C.J. Wilcox, who was under the hoop but ran out to the arc, was tipped out with .5 to go. I.T. attempted a desperate last shot that almost went in, but it was a 2 point attempt so regardless of in or out it wouldn't have mattered. The clock should have been at 1.4, but for whatever reason the refs chose not to review the clock. That .9 seconds makes all the difference in the world when it comes to shooting. What sucks most for Justin Holiday is that inbounds play will be what people remember of his performance. Not his great defense on Harrison Barnes, holding him to 9-20 and preventing countless other shots.

This was a great game until the final 10 seconds when the Dawgs choked hard. The first half run was impressive and UW did pretty well to fight against UNC's run to end the half. UW got up to a 5 point lead in the second, but UNC chipped away until the took the lead for good with 4 minutes to go. Aziz N'Diaye was a absolute beast today and if it weren't for some ticky tack fouls in the first half, when the refs gave Carolina an 11-2 foul advantage, he could have helped the Dawgs when UNC was pounding it inside. He had 8 rebounds with 8 minutes to go in the first half. He finished with a game high 11, including 5 offensive.

The foul calls started to even out in the second half, but the free throw disparity really killed us in the end. UW had 2 more made field goals and 4 more made 3's, but UNC had 11 more MADE free throws (16 more attempts). That is hard to overcome. 11 to 2, refs. Come on. I can accept when we foul, but there is no way they only picked up 2 in a half. The refs are not why we lost, do not misunderstand me. We had 13 turnovers on the night, and a large majority of those occurred in the final few minutes. The refs did not help our cause, however, they certainly helped UNC.

Isaiah Thomas struggled to find his shot tonight, finishing 5-15, but had 8 assists to 3 turnovers and created opportunities by driving the lane and kicking. There were a few times in the first half I thought he got hit on the hands, but no call for us. Thankfully, our outside game showed up to match our defensive efforts as UW hit 10 of 19 from outside. Ross and Wilcox led the way, going 3-5 a piece, followed closely by Darnell Gant (2-3) and Scott Suggs (2-4). Ross was an absolute monster on the court. He hit two of the most ridiculous lay-ins I've seen this year. He finished 7-10 from the field and 2-2 from the free throw line.

Wish Overton had pump faked the UNC players out to get that last lay-in to go, but 20/20 hindsight...There were a lot of great moments in the game, its too bad we had to let it fall between our fingers. After Aziz picked up his 4th and had to sit for a large portion of the second half, the Huskies dropped into a sort of half court offense and that is when the troubles began.

Man, this one is going to suck for a while because we had the ball, down 1, with 7 to go. Every chance to win after putting up a strong first half. Anyone watching the game knows we played a great game and looked like the better team for 90% of the game. We had great pressure defense to start the game that resulted in several turnovers, steals, and near steals.

Free Throws were brilliant tonight. 7-7, wish the refs would have given us a few more shooting fouls to even out the difference. Overton hit 3 and both I.T. and Ross nailed a pair. Not one post player got to shoot free throws for UW. Its like the Arizona game all over again.

What Needed Improvement

Half Court Ball Handling Skills

When UW dropped into their half court offense their ball handling skills seemed to disappear. Too often they would pick up the ball early and help didn't want to move over and lend a hand. Holiday had 3 turnovers, 2 in the final 2 minutes. Ross had a late turnover shortly after the first of Holiday's.

Inbound Plays

This is something that we have struggled off and on with all year and tonight it killed us. Out of a timeout even. No excuse for that, especially a senior. Romar needs to work on drawing up some plays for next season. I hate the half court pass as the inbound play. Get someone open in the post or out in the corner. Set a double screen to open somebody up. Something. Anything.

What was Good

Free Throws

7-7, 100%. Gorgeous. You can't ask for a better job than that. UNC missed 5 attempts out of 23. Wish we could have had that many opportunities. We would have won by 10 the way we were shooting from the line, if we had as many attempts.

Rebounding

To out rebound a much taller team is one thing. To out rebound the number 1 rebounding team in the nation is another. The Dawgs did great work on the glass, ending with a 38-33 advantage. Aziz led the way with 11, Matthew Byran-Amaning had 8, and both Gant and Ross picked up six.

Three Point Shooting

UW hit right where they needed to, 10 makes on 19 attempts. All 3 of our shooting hands hit 2+ and Gant added 2 of his own. Good selection, great shooting. In the end UW did everything right until crunch time, more on that later.

Player by Player Reviews

Justin Holiday

Everything seemed to go down hill for Holiday after his concussion during the USC game. His offense has been quiet the last 2 weeks. He didn't attempt shots and those he did often rimmed out. His defense remained at a high level. Tonight, Holiday managed 4 points on 2-6 shooting and had 3 turnovers to 1 assist, including the horrible inbound play. He also only managed 1 rebound. Its hard not to blame the loss on Holiday, other people made mistakes too, but the fact he had 2 turnovers in the final minutes really hurt our chances. Those mistakes were not something you expect out of a senior.
Grade: C-

Venoy Overton

My biggest question for him, or rather the coaching staff, is why Overton was given the ball with 15 seconds to go after the missed free throw rather than Isaiah Thomas who drained the game winning fade away against Arizona? Overton is very quick, I get that. He had a great drive last year against UCLA that nearly won us the game. This situation was different. We had more time. We could run a play, create a shot. Overton's drive was nice overall, but that ball should have been in I.T.'s hands. Overton only played 12 minutes today, a clear sign that Romar and staff liked was Isaiah was doing on the court. Overton by no means had a bad game, but it was not terrific. 5 points on 1-3 shooting, 2 assists, 1 turnover, 1 rebound. Overton did a great job drawing shooting fouls by driving the lane fast and hard, but that last shot was far too hurried. Throw in a pump fake or something. There is time on the clock.
Grade: B-

Matthew Bryan-Amaning

Besides one open shot where he lost the handle by being to anxious to get the shot off, MBA was pretty good tonight. He had 14 points on 7-14 shooting, 8 boards, 2 steals, a block, and assist, and 2 turnovers. MBA did all he could to help stop Tyler Zeller and Henson and was fairly successful at times. It was a solid way to end his career as a Husky after a slow night against Georgia.
Grade: B+

Brendan Sherrer

Did not play.
Grade: N/A

Scott Suggs

Suggs started in place of Terrence Ross and finished with 8 points on 3-6 shooting. He had 2 rebounds and a turnover as well. ESPN is reporting that Ross hit the 3 to get us within 1, but I could have swore it was Scott Suggs. Either way, Suggs performed pretty well and looks to be a very exciting player next season as a senior.
Grade: B+

Darnell Gant

Pretty good night for the junior forward. He came off the bench to start the game, but started the second half with Aziz in foul trouble. Gant connected on a huge three to drive the lead to 8 early in the first half. Unfortunately, we couldn't hang onto that lead. Gant had 6 rebounds and 2 assists, no turnovers. This is exactly the kind of work I love to see him doing as it gives me a lot of hope as to him developing into a deadly 4 player.
Grade: A-

Isaiah Thomas

You should have had the last shot, Isaiah. You should have driven or shot, not Overton. Way to perform yet again and contribute even when the shots aren't hitting. 5-15 is nowhere near pretty, but he only attempted 2 from beyond the arc, a good sign of more control on his part. His 8 assists helped UW greatly as he found the open man more than what the stat sheet shows. He had a late turnover as well when attempting some fancy dribbling in traffic. Not smart at all, I.T. just pull the ball out if it isn't there, don't force it so hard. By the way, I.T. nearly dunked over 7-0 Zeller, but lose the handle or had it tipped, can't remember which. Either way, it was ridiculous and would have been number 1 on the Top 10 had he made it.
Grade: B+

Aziz N'Diaye

MVP for the Huskies or at least tied with Terrence Ross. He was a freak on the glass tonight and had 2 nice put backs off of offensive boards. 1 assist, 0 turnovers. 0. Love it. His hands looked a thousand times better tonight. He held onto rebounds, he caught some passes, he dove after loose ones that he bobbled or were knocked free. Great effort tonight. I like what I saw. If he can really develop his offensive game and get a few more post moves he will become a very dangerous player for the Dawgs next season.
Grade: A

Antoine Hosley

Did not play.
Grade: N/A

C.J. Wilcox

4-9 shooting, 3-5 from outside, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 0 turnovers. A very solid stat line. He played some solid D on the UNC guards and worked well in the zone. Let us hope he finds his consistency next season as our frontcourt appears as though it will be a little weaker next season and we will need to get our points from somewhere else.
Grade: A-

Terrence Ross

My other candidate for MVP. Team high 19 points on 7-10 shooting, 6 boards, 1 steal, 1 block, and 3 turnovers. The turnovers marred his otherwise stellar performance. He is a freak of an athlete and is immensely dangerous when he gets in a groove like tonight. The late turnover hurt us and is the only thing that should haunt him from the night. I'm looking forward to next season when he is ripping it up on the court with a year's experience under his belt.
Grade: A-

Final Thoughts:

Not how I wanted to exit the tournament, but a hell of a game. It was extremely exciting until the turnover with 7 to go. I would have much rather seen a shot go up, hit or miss, it is a much better way to leave the NCAA. It's been a crazy season and I think most people will agree with me when I say UW got a tough draw and any other bracket UW would be sitting in the Sweet 16 right about now. This loss, much like the last second loss to Arizona, is one of those games you really wish the W would have landed on our side because we did almost everything right the whole game. Some late ball handling problems combined with a HUGE foul differential meant UNC walked away victorious and UW was sent home packing. To the seniors, Thank you for everything you gave to this program. I wish you nothing but the best.

I'll probably do a season wrap up sometime later this week after the depression of losing this game goes away. Probably try to get a preview of the incoming recruits up sometime in the coming weeks as well. With the season done, the posts will slow, but I'll try to get some conversational pieces up now and again to get the emotion and hype alive. I love this sport. I love this team. Win or lose, I bleed purple and gold.  Go Dawgs!

University of North Carolina Preview

UW faces a tough test Sunday against a long and lean North Carolina squad. UNC leads the nation in rebounding due to their tall frontcourt and much like UW, UNC favors an up and down game. UNC starts two guards at 6-3, Dexter Strickland and Kendall Marshall, a 6-8 forward also known as Harrison Barnes (the first freshman preseason All American), 6-10 John Henderson, and 7-0 Tyler Zeller. Despite all the length in their starting 5, UW matches up pretty well. Our guys will give up a few inches here and there, but it is nothing extreme. Do not be surprised to see UW to drop into a zone to combat their length. UNC shoots the 3 with a low percentage compared to their 2 point shot. This isn't to say they are a poor 3 point shooting team, they hit 33%, they just have the size inside to do damage.



Let's take a look at the starting 5 for the Tar Heels.

Dexter Strickland is 6-3 180lb. He plays the shooting guard position for UNC, while Kendall Marshall takes point guard. Strickland is averaging 7.3 points, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.6 turnovers per game. He is a quick guard who can be turnover prone. In their first round game, Strickland had 4 assists and turnovers. Strickland has 8 made 3's on 32 attempts so do not expect him to be dropping bombs from outside. He is a 67% free throw shooter.

Kendall Marshall is a much deadly and talented guard. He leads UNC in assists at 5.9 per game along with 2.4 turnovers, 1.0 steals, and 6.0 points. He is the one to run the offense. He gets the ball inside to the post, he works it around the perimeter to Barnes. If UW wants to gain an advantage it will start by putting pressure on Marshall and Strickland. They are the most prone to mistakes. Marshall is 17-44 from range on the year and is a bit better of a shooter, though on average he scores less.

Harrison Barnes is the one everyone talks about and, honestly, he deserves it. Barnes leads UNC in scoring with a 15.3 point average to go along with 5.9 rebounds per game. He can light it up any night of the week and dropped 40 on Clemson to advance to the ACC championship game. Barnes was well defended by LIU, held to 9-19 shooting (2-10 outside). Justin Holiday will combine with Darnell Gant throughout the game to stop this dangerous player.

John Henderson is another dangerous player. At 6-10, 210lb he is a bit of a light weight. I expect Gant will draw the assignment to start the game. Henderson averages a double double and is a blocking machine. 11.9 points, 10.1 boards, and 3.2 blocks per game. Damn impressive numbers. I.T. will need to be careful on the drives inside with him in the paint. UW can help the drive by clearing the lanes and forcing Henderson to commit body check fouls when attempting to defend.

Finally we come to Tyler Zeller. 7-0 250lb, he is a very similar build to Aziz N'Diaye. He is a better shooter, but an equal strength rebounder. His rebounding numbers are better because he gets more minutes. 15.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. The three forwards combined for 84 of UNC's 102 points against LIU. They are dangerous to say the least. MBA is a bit smaller, but I think he has a strength and speed advantage. MBA will need to be patient in the paint as Zeller and Henderson are solid defenders.

Starting Line Up Predictions

North Carolina

Dexter Strickland 6-3 180lb G
Kendall Marshall 6-3 186lb G
Harrison Barnes 6-8 210lb F
John Henderson 6-10 210lb F
Tyler Zeller 7-0 250lb F

Washington

Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb G
Terrence Ross 6-6 190lb G
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Darnell Gant 6-8 225lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F

Keys to the Game

Rebounding

As I said to start things off, UNC is the number 1 team in the nation when it comes to rebounding. They average 42.3 per game. Impressive. Their 3 starting forwards had 36 of UNC's 52 against LIU. They get some solid numbers from their guards as well. UW will have their work cut out for them. If you want to limit UNC's frontcourt contribution it all starts with big rebounding numbers. Keep them off the glass by getting position and drawing the over the back calls.

Free Throws

With UNC essentially playing at home and a crowd of baby blue in the arena, one could see the refs playing a little biased for sure. This means shooting like we did for 98% of the game against Georgia. We were perfect from the line until crunch time when Venoy Overton and C.J. Wilcox missed their free throws. I have a feeling this will come down to the wire and as such every free throw counts and momentum can swing full tilt based on how they fall. Somehow we manage to find ourselves against a team that on average shoots slightly worse from the line than us. Barnes is their best shooter at 75.4% from the line.

Interior Defense

With 3 tall, strong, and talented forwards at their disposal UNC is a force in the middle. They rely almost entirely on their interior play, but Barnes can step out and do damage behind the arc. Leslie McDonald also comes off the bench for some solid minutes and brings a nice outside shot. A mixture of zone and man will be used, no doubt. Strong backcourt pressure will help our frontcourt immensely. I would almost suggest a Box and 1 defense to contain Barnes, but it is a much more complex defense that requires some practice that is unreasonable to put in at this point in the season.

3 Point Shooting

I am not expect a Virginia game type performance where we drop 17 3's, but I would love for that to happen. What I am expecting is 8 to 12 makes on 20 or so attempts. UNC does not defend the arc that well and UW has the shooters to take advantage of this. 4-18 isn't going to cut it. When we can't find our shot we need to try and get better shots closer to the hoop. If we can hit like we did in the second half against Arizona I will be a happy camper.

Final Thoughts

UNC starts 5 High School McDonald's All Americans. They are a talented group who play a similar tempo of game. They have a strong frontcourt. We have a strong backcourt. Our bench is better, in my opinion. We shoot better, we handle the ball better, we actually rebound the ball better offensively, but UNC gets to the line more often. UNC's up and down style of play is great for us. Georgia kept it close by using their size down low in a half court offense. UW will need to get back on defense. I like Romar applying pressure after made free throws and some shots. It frustrates the opposing offense and forces them into mistakes here and there. I could see UW getting down early and having to fight back. Our shooters need to be hot and not just one or two. Everyone needs to be draining the open ones and creating more opportunities for their teammates. Patience is key. Don't force in the paint as they have some tall defenders who will swat the weak shots. I think this is winnable. It won't be easy. My heart will hurt, but we can do this. When our A-Game is operating on all cylinders we are unstoppable.

Final Score: UW-87 UNC-83

Free throws will make the differential bigger than it actually is. UNC is a 4 point favorite, most likely due to the "home" setting. It really comes down to how well we are shooting. Our defense has been great, we just need our offense to get clicking again. Go Dawgs!