Final Score: UW-106 UVA-63
Just the Facts
So my prediction was wrong....I underestimated us and overestimated UVA. Even Hosley hit a three this game (his first career score). Only Sherrer was unable to score, sadly. In the first half UW went 8 for 9 from behind the arc. The only miss came off of a near half court shot taken near the end of the first by Isaiah Thomas. UW shot an amazing 17 for 26 from range. Ross, Wilcox, and Thomas all hit 4. Holiday lead the team in rebounding with 9. MBA only managed 8 points and 4 rebounds in limited minutes. Venoy Overton was also a nonfactor scoring 2 points with 4 assists. Speaking of assists, UW had 18 assists on 40 made shots. Holiday lead the team with 6 of the 8 steals UW snatched away. Aziz N'Diaye went perfect from the free throw line, shooting 4 for 4 (all swished by the way). 58% from the field tonight from the Dawgs and 65.4% from range. They also shot 69.2% from the charity line on a 9 for 13 night. Thomas lead the team in scoring with 18. Wilcox put up 17 in only 15 minutes. Ross and Gaddy added 12, Holiday dropped in 11. Suggs, Aziz, and MBA had 8. UW out rebounded UVA 37-32, not great, but better than losing the rebounding war.
Joe Harris had 19 for the Cavs with Harrell adding 14. UVA only made 4 three points the whole night.
The Spin
A completely dominant game for UW. The first few minutes of the game were close as expected, with Virginia taking the early lead. After that the skies opened and 3 pointers rained down from everyone and everywhere from all sorts of range. C.J. was the most impressive, shooting on the run, fading away, from behind the yellow line. He did it all. Holiday, I.T., and C.J. all deserve recognition for their excellence on defense and offense. Romar did well in resting I.T., MBA, and Holiday for what should be an intense game tomorrow against Kentucky (write up coming either later tonight or early tomorrow morning). MBA, while limited in minutes and scoring, was efficient as ever, scoring over opponents at will, banking shots in. Overton just wasn't himself out there. Low scoring, no steals, a good amount of assists. He may still be sore after taking a hard fall against Eastern. He may have been told to take it easy to conserve him for tomorrow. I don't know the reason. Holiday started hot, but had troubles with easy lay-ins throughout the game.
Lets look at the highs and lows of the game.
Needs Improvement
Rebounding
While we won the rebounding game tonight, we only managed 5 more than Virginia. We need to do better than that, especially tomorrow against Kentucky. A good, obtainable goal for the Dawgs should be 45 rebounds a game, with maybe 15 to 20 offensive boards. Holiday was great on the boards tonight, while the bigs again struggled to find consistency. On the plus side, nearly every player grabbed two or more boards. We are getting there, but we still have work to do.
Chaos
We began to get out of control about 6 minutes into the second half jacking up shots and playing slack defense. I partially blame this on Overton and Ross who both played a tad too fast and anxious during that period. It was soon brought back under control by Gaddy and Isaiah. When we get up we need to take control and not let our play get out of hand. This wasn't a common theme throughout the game, but it happened enough times that Romar should think to address it.
What Was Great
Three Point Shooting
Nearly 66% from behind the line is unstoppable, especially considering the 66% was on 17 makes. An 8 for 9 half with the only miss coming off a last second shot is ridiculous. Wilcox looks like he has found his groove and was nailing ridiculous shots I couldn't believe were dropping. Each make just made the night that much better. I think C.J. wants more minutes and he deserves it. He played a complete game (more on this in the player reviews). Isaiah was absurd, Ross was lights out, Suggs even looked pretty good. Hell, even Gant and Hosley went 1 for 1 behind the line. It was impressive to say the least. I'm quite in awe of how well we shot tonight that I'm partially at a loss for words. If you didn't see the game, please watch the replay first chance you get, its well worth it.
Defense
UW did a good job of shutting down Scott, holding him to 11. Harris stepped up big for Virginia by getting 19. He drove really well and this was the one place were UW was sketchy on defense. There was some trouble with our bigs not stepping in to help. C.J. was looking fabulous out there on D. Holiday was ridiculous on steals, nabbing 6 officially, I counted 8 or 9 myself, either way it was just beautiful. Holding Virginia to 39% shooting and 25% from range is a great example of how vicious we can be defensively. Kentucky will be facing a huge test tomorrow against our defense.
Passing
Yet again the Huskies did a great job of sharing the ball. Nearly 50% of all made shots were assisted. Gaddy led the team with 5 assists and Venoy dished out 4. The excellent three point shooting was not only due to our pretty stroke, but our ability to move the ball and find the open man. We did a great job of forcing the middle and dishing back out to the perimeter. This will be a huge strength tomorrow when facing the lacking interior of Kentucky.
Inside Shooting
Gaddy highlighted the interior play, going 6 for 7 from short, 0-2 from long, though one made shot was a half step inside the arc. I.T. was excellent on the drive per usual and looked back in form after last game's subpar outing. He made some impressive shots driving from the baseline.
Player by Player Review
Matthew Bryan-Amaning
Not a bad performance for only 17 minutes of play. 8 points and 4 rebounds is a decent night, but not quite the 20 point, 10 rebound effort we were expecting from him. Chalk it up to good defense by Virginia and lack of overall opportunities for MBA. With almost half our makes coming from downtown, its not surprising that he only scored 8. His rebounding should have been better. Let's hope he shows up strong against Kentucky. Nothing fancy tonight, but nothing to really detract from his performance. His best shot was probably the short jumper over 4 defenders. Admittedly 2 of them were facing the wrong way.
Grade: B
Justin Holiday
11 points on 4 for 10 shooting. I don't know what happened, but Holiday struggled on the break and simple lay-ins. He made a somewhat greedy play opting to shoot on the fast break when I.T. was right by with a far better and much more open shot. He went 2 for 2 on threes. His 6 steals and 9 rebounds were the important contributions he brought to the team. He did a fabulous job on defense as we have come to expect. He did have 3 fouls, a bit unusual for him, but I don't think it'll become a trend. If Holiday can get his short shots down, he'll have a much better offensive night. He also needs to look for the open players on breaks if his shot is not going to be successful.
Grade: B+
Venoy Overton
A down night for Overton. He passed well and was a great team player, but did nothing outside of assists on offense or defense for that matter. He did well controlling his man, but didn't force turnovers like we are used to him doing. He had good speed and did well on his only scoring drive. Not sure the reason for the stat lacking night, but let's hope it clears up by tomorrow. He had a great pass to Gant for a monster dunk.
Grade: C+
Isaiah Thomas
18 points, 4 for 6 on range, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal. Great night for I.T. who came out fired up and shot like a demon had possessed him. He played 24 minutes on the night, coming out with about 10 minutes to go in the second if my memory serves me right. It may have been a bit later. All I know is he was enjoying watching UW rain down the points. Personally, I thought he played like the MVP of the game tonight. He was a leader through and through. Defensively, he executed well. Offensively, they had no answer for him. He was not to be stopped. Great night, great shot, great athlete.
Grade: A+
Darnell Gant
4 rebounds and 7 points on 3 for 7 shooting including 1 for 1 from the arc. Defensively, Darnell played very well in front of his man, but fouled too often trying to block shots. We need him to avoid foul trouble so our bigs can get some rest time. He still is developing his shot, but it looked better than it has in the past. Darnell is going to have to step up big tomorrow and play like a champ against Terrence Jones. His long arms were foul prone tonight. We need them to be more effective and straight up. Go for the D rather than the block. He also needs to continue to improve on his glass work. 4 rebounds is nice, but we need him to get 6 or 7. He played his role well overall and its good to see his shot confidence is rising. Once they start falling, we will have another offensive threat on the court.
Grade: B+
Scott Suggs
It looks as though Scott may once again be taking the back seat to more skilled players. While he had a decent performance tonight, shooting 50% on the tres, and grabbing 4 boards, C.J. and Ross definitely looked to be much better all around players on the court. Suggs is still not as strong defensively as I would like to see. He showed some driving ability, but turned the ball over a few times after losing his handle on it. If he can begin to pass out when under pressure and not force the drive to happen, he will be a much better player. We will most likely see his minutes drop the most. I am slightly surprised to see he garnered 23 minutes, while C.J. only played for 15 and Ross for 12. Romar must be seeing something out of him I am not, personally I think C.J. is a much better defender and has a sweet stroke. Whatever Romar sees I hope starts to show more. He isn't a bad player, but of the three shooting wings he seems the weakest.
Grade: B
Brendan Sherrer
No stats for the Cigar today, just 2-3 minutes of play time. Let's hope we keep the smoking chain going.
Grade: A for effort
Aziz N'Diaye
Free throws were out of this world tonight. Much, much better than the McNeese fiasco. As I wrote for that game, he has good form and nearly all of his misses were close. Tonight he aced them all with perfect swishes. Let's hope that kind of shooting stays. Two blocks, two assists, and three rebounds to go along with 8 points. A good night for 15 minutes of play. Like Darnell, we need to get more consistent rebounding out of him. This will allow our guards to get out in transition versus hanging in the back snatching up boards. I am still impressed with how much space he takes up on the court. He gets low on screens making a huge wall to go around. On defense he gets his arms out wide and clogs the lanes. His immense size is going to be very useful the entire season. His best play came on a wonderful hook shot over his opponent's head that banked in. His long arms keep his shot out of reach for most opponents. If he finds a grove against Kentucky we will be in a happy situation.
Grade: B
Abdul Gaddy
While his long ball didn't connect tonight, he shooting game was outstanding. He made 6 of 7 from short including two or three of those beautiful tear drops from the middle of the key. He drove well with fancy spin moves, passed as great as ever, and put up another fantastic performance. It looks like the new and improved Gaddy is here to stay and I'm in love with it. His great play was the missing key to last years team and he will be key in this season's success. His confidence goes up with every made shot and it gets our team going as well. He is a quiet leader on the court, but knows how to take charge and talk with his teammates when he needs to. He pulled Ross over after a sloppy, unnecessary foul and told him how to avoid it next time. He has a great calming effect, which will be huge in the emotional, physical games that tomorrow could turn out to be.
Grade: A
Antoine Hosley
Came in for 3 minutes. Knocked down a three almost immediately. As wonky as his shot is, it sank beautifully. He is on his way to Cigar stardom as well.
Grade: A for effort A+ for sinking that three like a boss.
Terrence Ross
Ross showed why he is a 5 star recruit, no matter what the polls say. 4 for 5 from range on beautiful shots. He showed why he pulls up and takes shots that might make you cringe at first glance. He was a bit rough on defense tonight, picking up some sloppy fouls. That is a freshman mistake that will be corrected with time and practice. I can promise we will be seeing more of him before long. He may not quite be a one and done, but it is not unforeseeable for him to leave after 2 years, though I hope he stays for 4. He did well at getting open and making his shots. Only 2 boards tonight. I'd like to see him with 4 to 5 per 15 to 20 minutes.
Grade: A-
C.J. Wilcox
Another MVP of the game candidate along with I.T. and Holiday, C.J. was absolutely filthy on the floor tonight. His shot was untouchable. He must have hit two near 30 feet out. He nailed fade aways, pull up jumpers, and just plain open shots on the perimeter. On top of his 17 points he put up 3 boards and 4 assists. Defensively he looked better than ever. He was extremely feisty on D, getting low and in the face of his opponent. He controlled their play and tempo and stepped up like a champ. He is looking to be a very promising player, one who should see 20+ minutes a game if he continues to play so efficiently. Play like that will get you more minutes guaranteed. I'm starting to love this kid more and more every game. I hope we get to keep him for 4 years.
Grade: A+
Concluding Thoughts
I thought we played even more dominantly than I thought we would. Our shooting was absurd and our defense was great. While not our best defensive game (allowing a player to get 19 points is not something we want), overall we were effective at holding their offense down. Keeping our percentage at 60% or more while keeping theirs to 40% or less will almost guarantee a win every time. So will 100+ points a game. I like the team effort and the all around scoring our team puts out each and every game. It allows us to be versatile, dangerous, and protects us when players have slump nights as we have others who can step up and perform as we need. If we continue to play as we did today, there isn't a team in the nation that can stop us. Our offense has been too potent, and too varied to be shut down. Our defense has played well, holding opponents to 76 points or less in all 4 games of the year, an average of 68.75 points a game. Kentucky will be much more potent on offense tomorrow so our defense will need to be at its best and our offense needs to maintain its pace. I'll have a full write up tomorrow morning on Kentucky.
Great job tonight boys, let's keep it rolling tomorrow and take the world by storm.
Links
http://www.montlakemadness.com/maui-virginia-game-recap/
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskymensbasketballblog/2013498958_you_want_kentuc.html
http://www.gohuskies.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/112310aaa.html
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/18574/huskies-dominate-big-blue-next
Showing posts with label University of Virginia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label University of Virginia. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
University of Virginia Preview
The first team the Dawgs will face in Maui are the University of Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavaliers most recently lost to Stanford 60 to 81 in a game that started out close, but ended in a blow out due to the Cavaliers inexperience and lack of endurance, bringing their season record to 2-1. Their two wins come off of low end D1 programs.
Look for UW to capitalize on the experience, endurance, and speed they possess to really run the floor against Virginia. After watching Virginia in their game against Stanford, well mostly just the second half as I was busy watching the Dawgs football team run UCLA the first half, I believe this is a team we can easily beat by 20 or more. If Stanford can do it, we surely can. We can't overlook Virginia completely, but they don't seem to be much of a match up for us.
Virginia is not the highest scoring team, averaging 70 points a game with their season high coming in at 76 points in a win against William and Mary Tribe (who is that?). Their biggest asset is their free throw shooting, going 80.9% on the year thus far and a perfect 11 for 11 against Stanford. With this in mind we need to avoid the fouls that could keep Virginia in this game.
Virginia's main scoring option is 6-8 240 lb F Mike Scott. He is averaging 15 points a game and 9.0 rebounds thus far in the season. He is shooting .556 from the field and a very nice, envy worthy .882 from the free throw line. MBA and Aziz would be smart to ask him his secret. He has played nearly 33 minutes a game, some thing the Huskies can exploit by subbing MBA and Aziz back and forth to keep up the pressure and thoroughly exhaust him.
The two guards for Virginia, 6-4 181 lb Mustapha Farrakhan and 6-2 192 lb Billy Baron are scoring 11.7 points a game a piece with Billy appearing to be the better shooter, hitting 7 for 13 behind the arc while Mustapha is 6 for 18. Both are shooting above 85% from the charity line and dish out a combined 4.4 assists per game. In the game against Stanford, Mustapha went 2 for 7 on the long ball and 4 for 10 from the field. Billy Baron, the Virginia 6th man, went 0 for 4 while the third Virginia "guard", 6-6 202 lb Joe Harris, went 4 for 7 from range.
Virginia has, in its line up and starting line up for that matter, a 7 footer by the name of Assane Sene weighing in at 239 lbs from Senegal. He hails from a different city than Aziz, but attended South Kent prep school in Conneticut. The same school attended by Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Isaiah Thomas. I didn't look too much into the matter, but I would assume the three have some history together as Assane attended South Kent the same time as Isaiah and plausibly MBA as well. While his size may be intimidating, his play is not. He is averaging 1.3 points and 1.3 rebounds a game during 12.7 minutes per game. He had four fouls against Stanford and seems to be foul prone in general. He only took one shot against Stanford and missed. For whatever reason, this big man starts, but does nothing note worthy with his time on the court. This could be a chance for the Huskies to put out a big line up and abuse the 7 footer with our own 7 foot "Star From Dakar". With MBA taking on Mike Scott, Aziz could be a big factor in the complete domination of Virginia. If Aziz and MBA do not play on the court at the same time, I could see either Darnell or MBA guarding Scott. With the ineffectiveness of their 7 footer, it doesn't seem to matter who is guarding him. I would personally like to see Gant take on responsibility of guarding Mike Scott due to his long arms and defensive abilities. This also allows MBA to abuse Assane on the glass (hopefully).
Virginia appears to run a fairly slow offense with an adjusted tempo of 65.1 versus the average of 68.0 and UW's season tempo currently standing at 74.7 (good for 5th in the nation, a category lead somewhat surprisingly by Seattle University at over 79). With the tenacious backcourt the Huskies possess look for Virginia to turn the ball over often. If Isaiah and Overton can come out and grab another 8 to 10 steals between them, this game will be wrapped up in no time.
Starting Line Ups
Virginia
Jontel Evans 5-11 190 lb G
Mustapha Farrakhan 6-4 181 lb G
Joe Harris 6-6 202 lb G
Mike Scott 6-8 242 lb F
Assane Sene 7-0 239 lb C
Washington
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185 lb SG
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 195 lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185 lb F
Darnell Gant 6-8 225 lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240 lb F
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
Something the Huskies have been up and down with this season, more down than up thus far. While they are averaging 52 boards a game, good for 2nd in the nation, they have been out rebounded in two of three games including the exhibition. This is something the Huskies need to correct immediately, especially if they are to advance past the first round of the Maui Invitational and expect to compete and win against teams like Kentucky, Michigan St., UConn, etc. Virginia is currently averaging 32 boards a game with Mike Scott leading the team with 9 a game and Will Sherrill coming in next at 4 boards a game. There are no other significant contributers to the rebounding game for Virginia. UW has several players who can rebound and should do everything they can to wipe the glass clean. MBA, Aziz, Holiday, Ross, Gant, even I.T., C.J., and Suggs should be looking to grab some boards at every opportunity. Kind of a tangent, but if I.T. had successfully dunked the ball when going up for the rebound against Eastern, instead of barely missing, hanging on the rim (trying not to die from falling), and gotten T'd up, I think we would have seen a Nate Robinson type reaction from the crowd. If there is something that will revive the some what quiet Dawg Pack this year, it'll be a nasty dunk from our smallest player. So I.T. if you read this, please, smash a dunk in against Long Beach St. when you return home. Anyways, back to the matter at hand. With the Virginia 7 footer appearing to be a nonfactor in every aspect of the game thus far, look for MBA and Aziz along side Gant and Holiday to do work on the glass. If all goes as it should both MBA and Aziz should put up double doubles. Even Holiday could manage to pull in 10+ boards and have a double double of his own. By grabbing 45+ boards in the game, the Huskies would be doing themselves a huge favor in controlling not only the tempo of the game, but the outcome as well. The Huskies have been known for their rebounding the past few years thanks to Brockman and a bit from Pondexter. While early on it appears MBA is moderately successful at bringing in the loose balls, he should have had an easier time of it against Eastern Washington. While 10 boards is nothing to sneeze at, I was expecting 15 to 20 due to his size, skill, and experience advantage. I believe we will find Mike Scott defending MBA on the post, so MBA will have to work harder at rebounding and showing that his high scoring efforts and rebounding stats thus far are not just flukes due to playing low end schools. This is also a chance for Aziz to redeem himself after a slightly disappointing effort against Eastern.
Fouling
The Husky big men have been doing a better job on the whole of avoiding foul trouble, something that will go a long ways towards the success of the season. By avoiding foul trouble they are not only preventing free throws, something critical against good FT shooting teams like Virginia, but it also allows Romar not to force Gant into the post. From the way Romar has been talking about Sherrer and the way he has been given more minutes, I could see Sherrer coming in to take up 5 to 10 minutes a game if both Aziz and MBA get into foul trouble. He is a big body that does a moderately good job at defending his man. He is foul prone, but this is due to his lack of play time experience. Most people would consider it shocking if Sherrer came in in anything but garbage time, I on the other hand see it as a plausible outcome in more desperate situations.
On the other side of fouling, Aziz and MBA could do themselves and the Huskies a huge favor by acting as foul sponges down low against the foul prone Assane. Taking the 7 footer out of the game, despite his limited minutes and impact, allows the UW to have a major size advantage they can use to control every aspect of the game. After the 7 footer, Virginia's size is more comparable to our own with a few players listed at 6-8 and 6-9 and most of them are bench players who do not see that much action. Body control and positioning are the key to the avoiding fouls and causing fouls. If our front court can be as successful as they were against McNeese, this game will be a complete blowout. Not only did MBA and Aziz put up double double in that game, but they fouled out McNeese's two big men, allowing us to abuse the middle.
Defense
We cannot come out flat against Virginia. While the Cavaliers may not be the best team the Huskies will face this year, they are no pushover. They are coached by former WSU coach Tony Bennett who is quite familiar with Romar and the Husky style of play. I think the minds of all our players should be thoroughly focused and anxious for this game. As much as they say they focus one game at a time, this tournament has been on their mind for quite some time. This is their big chance to prove they are competitors and will make a run at the title this season. Isaiah, Gaddy, and Overton will be the first level of hell Virginia has to descend through to make their way to the basket. If the Cavalier guards are as scared as the Eastern and McNeese guards were (over and back call against one guard who backed up over the line trying to avoid Overton) UW should have no problem snatching up 10+ steals and forcing 20-30 turnovers in the game. Holiday and Gant have big responsibilities controlling two of the more potent members of the Virginia offense. Both are great on ball defenders with long arms and a great nose for the ball. MBA should have no trouble with the 7 footer despite the size difference. MBA is stronger, more skilled, and in way better shape from the looks of things.
Shooting
The Huskies did a fairly good job of taking open shots last game, but they just weren't dropping from range. The biggest problem was we seemed to be settling for the 3 ball versus trying to force the middle. Again, the Huskies need to force the ball down low to MBA and our other front court players. They will either take the shot or dish it back out to our open perimeter players. Holiday made a very humbling and impressive statement concerning his sweet, sweet jumper he has been taking from near the top of the key. He said he saw Terrence Ross taking those shots, saw how effective they were and decided that was something he wanted to emulate. For a senior to say that of a freshman is pretty crazy. Not only does it show Holiday's commitment to learning, improving, and winning, but it also shows the skill level Ross possesses. Success on the inside will mean success from range again. Expect I.T. to have his head back in the game. The family issues he was having before the Eastern game definitely showed and Isaiah will be looking to redeem and prove himself to everyone. As a team we need to not settle for the 3 ball. It should become part of our arsenal, but not our last ditch effort. We have the driving skills and inside presence to take over.
Free Throws
Kind of in the same vein as shooting in general, the Huskies need to improve their foul shot. By Huskies, I really mean MBA and Aziz. I would be moderately happy if they could average 65% from the foul line. Making foul shots against foul prone teams is something that helped the 2008-2009 Huskies be so successful the entire year. Jon Brockman stepped up big and developed a deadly foul shot that could not be stopped about half way through the season. Making our free throws will really keep Virginia from making any progress on us. It also keeps momentum on our side.
Other Thoughts
Isaiah has been a utility man this year. He starts off with an 11 assist game, follows that by a 17 point outing, then a 5 steal performance. What will we see from him on Monday against Virginia? In my mind we will see everything. Isaiah is a winner in heart, mind, and performance. We could see him put up 20 points, 6 assists and 3 or 4 steals against Virginia. Overton should also have a beastly game. Maybe not the highest scoring we have ever seen from the senior, but defensively he should really enjoy himself out there. I expect to see him put up between 6 and 8 points while dealing out 5 to 7 assists and creating numerous turnovers. If he picks pockets as easily as he did against Eastern he should grab another 3 to 5 steals. Holiday looks to have found his shot, a beautiful jumper from the top of the key. This shot should not only be successful as a scoring option against a Virginia zone defense, but also as a way to open up MBA down low for some easy lay-ins/dunks. If MBA can make himself available and open, we will be well on our way to another 100 point game. With the so called "Three Headed Monster" of Ross/Suggs/Wilcox coming off the bench, we should expect them to combine for 20 to 30 points. Any one of them could step up and drop 15 on the Cavaliers. Aziz could have another fabulous showing, it all depends on how well he can make room for himself and convert.
This should be an exciting game to watch as a Husky fan. Virginia offers up some stiffer competition, that while still not top tier, is definitely better than what we have been facing. Some questions should be answered for the Dawgs today. Is MBA really improved or is this just like last season with a fantastic start and terrible first half of the year? Has Gant been able to improve to a point where he could get 20 minutes a game? How good has Gaddy become? Is he back to his All-American status? Who, out of Ross, Suggs, and Wilcox, will step up with some consistency and earn themselves major minutes? And lastly, how good are the Huskies? A first round loss would be a terrible blow to not only the team moral, but also how the Huskies and Pac-10 are viewed by the media. The Huskies should be able to get through the first round fairly easily and should have a tough game in the second round if they face Kentucky. I haven't seen as much of Oklahoma's ability as I would like so I can't really judge how well the Huskies would fare against them. Winning the tournament, most likely a final game against Michigan St the current number 2 team in the nation, would propel the Huskies into the top ten, possibly the top 5. It would also prove we are here to play, we can win and win big, and its not just due to a weak Pac-10 that we find success so often. Winning the tournament is a very real possibility if we find our rhythm and chemistry. It'll be interesting to see how playing time is dished out once we find ourselves against a tough team. My best guess is only two of the "three headed monster" will see significant time. I.T., Overton, and Gaddy should not be greatly affected as all three are now deadly efficient on the floor. Holiday and Gant will probably sub in and out with Ross. Leaving MBA, Aziz, and maybe Gant to play the low post minutes. The tougher games will probably see MBA and Gant or Gant and Aziz on the floor 80% of the time. We may see MBA and Aziz sharing the court, but not as often, at least 'til our big men can show they aren't going to get into foul trouble.
Score Prediction
This one is a little tougher for me to judge. Stanford put up 81 on Virginia. Mostly due to Jeremy Green dropping 21 on a 5 for 9 from range night. Stanford has one great shooter, we have a boat load. We have several players that could put up 20+ against Virginia, mainly MBA, I.T. and Holiday. If all three have 20 point nights this game won't be close in any sense of the word. Gaddy should have another stunning performance on Monday, putting up 10+ point, multiple assists, etc. I have high hopes for this game. Could we see the Huskies put up 100+? 110+? I'm not sure we can score that many points night in night out. If we could there wouldn't be a team in the nation that could stop us. It is very rare to see two teams put up 100+ points in a game without overtime in college, simply due to time constraints. It takes a lot of possessions to score a 100 points, 40 some possessions at 15 to 20 seconds each is about 13 minutes of play time. Considering most teams shoot about 50 to 60 percent that is over half the game for one team alone. Virginia has only posted season highs of 76 and 74 points against teams the Huskies would have easily dropped 100+ on, much like our first three games. Virginia only managed to break 80 points three times last season. They also finished last year with 9 straight losses in conference before their conference tournament. Due to their low caliber offense I only see the Cavaliers putting up 65 to 70 points. As for our offense, the sky is the limit. We have yet to see them play against a defense that could control them successfully. Even terrible shooting against Eastern's zone ended with 98 points.
I'm going to call it 95-68 UW. Eastern played a fast offense that allowed the Huskies many more possession than they normally would have had, allowing the first half slump to be canceled by a much more efficient and successful second half. Because Virginia plays slower, missed shots will take away more from the game than in previous outings. Our shooting should be improved from the Eastern game after a weeks worth of practice and some more work on breaking a zone defense. Let's hope the Dawgs can get it done in spectacular fashion.
*Edit* For the Virginia fans reading this: I am being sarcastic about The Tribe. I know who they are, I just don't know them as a basketball school. It's like our opener against McNeese and Eastern, joke schools that big D1 teams use as warm ups. From what I saw of Virginia against Stanford they did play more man than zone, but teams have a tendency to go zone on us after a while. Unfortunately, I do have to base a lot of my opinions on Virginia from stat sheet analysis. In much the same fashion the East coast does not see us play on the West, the East coast games are not always playing out here, especially the season openers against mid majors. Glad to see it's being discussed on your site, drop a few comments here for discussion, I'm sure Husky fans would love to have some back and forth.
Other links
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskymensbasketballblog/2013477945_final_practice.html
http://www.mynorthwest.com/category/college_hoops_blog/20101117/Overton-is-the-back-bone-behind-UW's-wish-bone/#comments
http://www.gohuskies.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/111910aaa.html
http://www.montlakemadness.com/maui-classic-scouting-virginia/
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskymensbasketballblog/2013493957_video_scouting_12.html
Look for UW to capitalize on the experience, endurance, and speed they possess to really run the floor against Virginia. After watching Virginia in their game against Stanford, well mostly just the second half as I was busy watching the Dawgs football team run UCLA the first half, I believe this is a team we can easily beat by 20 or more. If Stanford can do it, we surely can. We can't overlook Virginia completely, but they don't seem to be much of a match up for us.
Virginia is not the highest scoring team, averaging 70 points a game with their season high coming in at 76 points in a win against William and Mary Tribe (who is that?). Their biggest asset is their free throw shooting, going 80.9% on the year thus far and a perfect 11 for 11 against Stanford. With this in mind we need to avoid the fouls that could keep Virginia in this game.
Virginia's main scoring option is 6-8 240 lb F Mike Scott. He is averaging 15 points a game and 9.0 rebounds thus far in the season. He is shooting .556 from the field and a very nice, envy worthy .882 from the free throw line. MBA and Aziz would be smart to ask him his secret. He has played nearly 33 minutes a game, some thing the Huskies can exploit by subbing MBA and Aziz back and forth to keep up the pressure and thoroughly exhaust him.
The two guards for Virginia, 6-4 181 lb Mustapha Farrakhan and 6-2 192 lb Billy Baron are scoring 11.7 points a game a piece with Billy appearing to be the better shooter, hitting 7 for 13 behind the arc while Mustapha is 6 for 18. Both are shooting above 85% from the charity line and dish out a combined 4.4 assists per game. In the game against Stanford, Mustapha went 2 for 7 on the long ball and 4 for 10 from the field. Billy Baron, the Virginia 6th man, went 0 for 4 while the third Virginia "guard", 6-6 202 lb Joe Harris, went 4 for 7 from range.
Virginia has, in its line up and starting line up for that matter, a 7 footer by the name of Assane Sene weighing in at 239 lbs from Senegal. He hails from a different city than Aziz, but attended South Kent prep school in Conneticut. The same school attended by Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Isaiah Thomas. I didn't look too much into the matter, but I would assume the three have some history together as Assane attended South Kent the same time as Isaiah and plausibly MBA as well. While his size may be intimidating, his play is not. He is averaging 1.3 points and 1.3 rebounds a game during 12.7 minutes per game. He had four fouls against Stanford and seems to be foul prone in general. He only took one shot against Stanford and missed. For whatever reason, this big man starts, but does nothing note worthy with his time on the court. This could be a chance for the Huskies to put out a big line up and abuse the 7 footer with our own 7 foot "Star From Dakar". With MBA taking on Mike Scott, Aziz could be a big factor in the complete domination of Virginia. If Aziz and MBA do not play on the court at the same time, I could see either Darnell or MBA guarding Scott. With the ineffectiveness of their 7 footer, it doesn't seem to matter who is guarding him. I would personally like to see Gant take on responsibility of guarding Mike Scott due to his long arms and defensive abilities. This also allows MBA to abuse Assane on the glass (hopefully).
Virginia appears to run a fairly slow offense with an adjusted tempo of 65.1 versus the average of 68.0 and UW's season tempo currently standing at 74.7 (good for 5th in the nation, a category lead somewhat surprisingly by Seattle University at over 79). With the tenacious backcourt the Huskies possess look for Virginia to turn the ball over often. If Isaiah and Overton can come out and grab another 8 to 10 steals between them, this game will be wrapped up in no time.
Starting Line Ups
Virginia
Jontel Evans 5-11 190 lb G
Mustapha Farrakhan 6-4 181 lb G
Joe Harris 6-6 202 lb G
Mike Scott 6-8 242 lb F
Assane Sene 7-0 239 lb C
Washington
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185 lb SG
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 195 lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185 lb F
Darnell Gant 6-8 225 lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240 lb F
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
Something the Huskies have been up and down with this season, more down than up thus far. While they are averaging 52 boards a game, good for 2nd in the nation, they have been out rebounded in two of three games including the exhibition. This is something the Huskies need to correct immediately, especially if they are to advance past the first round of the Maui Invitational and expect to compete and win against teams like Kentucky, Michigan St., UConn, etc. Virginia is currently averaging 32 boards a game with Mike Scott leading the team with 9 a game and Will Sherrill coming in next at 4 boards a game. There are no other significant contributers to the rebounding game for Virginia. UW has several players who can rebound and should do everything they can to wipe the glass clean. MBA, Aziz, Holiday, Ross, Gant, even I.T., C.J., and Suggs should be looking to grab some boards at every opportunity. Kind of a tangent, but if I.T. had successfully dunked the ball when going up for the rebound against Eastern, instead of barely missing, hanging on the rim (trying not to die from falling), and gotten T'd up, I think we would have seen a Nate Robinson type reaction from the crowd. If there is something that will revive the some what quiet Dawg Pack this year, it'll be a nasty dunk from our smallest player. So I.T. if you read this, please, smash a dunk in against Long Beach St. when you return home. Anyways, back to the matter at hand. With the Virginia 7 footer appearing to be a nonfactor in every aspect of the game thus far, look for MBA and Aziz along side Gant and Holiday to do work on the glass. If all goes as it should both MBA and Aziz should put up double doubles. Even Holiday could manage to pull in 10+ boards and have a double double of his own. By grabbing 45+ boards in the game, the Huskies would be doing themselves a huge favor in controlling not only the tempo of the game, but the outcome as well. The Huskies have been known for their rebounding the past few years thanks to Brockman and a bit from Pondexter. While early on it appears MBA is moderately successful at bringing in the loose balls, he should have had an easier time of it against Eastern Washington. While 10 boards is nothing to sneeze at, I was expecting 15 to 20 due to his size, skill, and experience advantage. I believe we will find Mike Scott defending MBA on the post, so MBA will have to work harder at rebounding and showing that his high scoring efforts and rebounding stats thus far are not just flukes due to playing low end schools. This is also a chance for Aziz to redeem himself after a slightly disappointing effort against Eastern.
Fouling
The Husky big men have been doing a better job on the whole of avoiding foul trouble, something that will go a long ways towards the success of the season. By avoiding foul trouble they are not only preventing free throws, something critical against good FT shooting teams like Virginia, but it also allows Romar not to force Gant into the post. From the way Romar has been talking about Sherrer and the way he has been given more minutes, I could see Sherrer coming in to take up 5 to 10 minutes a game if both Aziz and MBA get into foul trouble. He is a big body that does a moderately good job at defending his man. He is foul prone, but this is due to his lack of play time experience. Most people would consider it shocking if Sherrer came in in anything but garbage time, I on the other hand see it as a plausible outcome in more desperate situations.
On the other side of fouling, Aziz and MBA could do themselves and the Huskies a huge favor by acting as foul sponges down low against the foul prone Assane. Taking the 7 footer out of the game, despite his limited minutes and impact, allows the UW to have a major size advantage they can use to control every aspect of the game. After the 7 footer, Virginia's size is more comparable to our own with a few players listed at 6-8 and 6-9 and most of them are bench players who do not see that much action. Body control and positioning are the key to the avoiding fouls and causing fouls. If our front court can be as successful as they were against McNeese, this game will be a complete blowout. Not only did MBA and Aziz put up double double in that game, but they fouled out McNeese's two big men, allowing us to abuse the middle.
Defense
We cannot come out flat against Virginia. While the Cavaliers may not be the best team the Huskies will face this year, they are no pushover. They are coached by former WSU coach Tony Bennett who is quite familiar with Romar and the Husky style of play. I think the minds of all our players should be thoroughly focused and anxious for this game. As much as they say they focus one game at a time, this tournament has been on their mind for quite some time. This is their big chance to prove they are competitors and will make a run at the title this season. Isaiah, Gaddy, and Overton will be the first level of hell Virginia has to descend through to make their way to the basket. If the Cavalier guards are as scared as the Eastern and McNeese guards were (over and back call against one guard who backed up over the line trying to avoid Overton) UW should have no problem snatching up 10+ steals and forcing 20-30 turnovers in the game. Holiday and Gant have big responsibilities controlling two of the more potent members of the Virginia offense. Both are great on ball defenders with long arms and a great nose for the ball. MBA should have no trouble with the 7 footer despite the size difference. MBA is stronger, more skilled, and in way better shape from the looks of things.
Shooting
The Huskies did a fairly good job of taking open shots last game, but they just weren't dropping from range. The biggest problem was we seemed to be settling for the 3 ball versus trying to force the middle. Again, the Huskies need to force the ball down low to MBA and our other front court players. They will either take the shot or dish it back out to our open perimeter players. Holiday made a very humbling and impressive statement concerning his sweet, sweet jumper he has been taking from near the top of the key. He said he saw Terrence Ross taking those shots, saw how effective they were and decided that was something he wanted to emulate. For a senior to say that of a freshman is pretty crazy. Not only does it show Holiday's commitment to learning, improving, and winning, but it also shows the skill level Ross possesses. Success on the inside will mean success from range again. Expect I.T. to have his head back in the game. The family issues he was having before the Eastern game definitely showed and Isaiah will be looking to redeem and prove himself to everyone. As a team we need to not settle for the 3 ball. It should become part of our arsenal, but not our last ditch effort. We have the driving skills and inside presence to take over.
Free Throws
Kind of in the same vein as shooting in general, the Huskies need to improve their foul shot. By Huskies, I really mean MBA and Aziz. I would be moderately happy if they could average 65% from the foul line. Making foul shots against foul prone teams is something that helped the 2008-2009 Huskies be so successful the entire year. Jon Brockman stepped up big and developed a deadly foul shot that could not be stopped about half way through the season. Making our free throws will really keep Virginia from making any progress on us. It also keeps momentum on our side.
Other Thoughts
Isaiah has been a utility man this year. He starts off with an 11 assist game, follows that by a 17 point outing, then a 5 steal performance. What will we see from him on Monday against Virginia? In my mind we will see everything. Isaiah is a winner in heart, mind, and performance. We could see him put up 20 points, 6 assists and 3 or 4 steals against Virginia. Overton should also have a beastly game. Maybe not the highest scoring we have ever seen from the senior, but defensively he should really enjoy himself out there. I expect to see him put up between 6 and 8 points while dealing out 5 to 7 assists and creating numerous turnovers. If he picks pockets as easily as he did against Eastern he should grab another 3 to 5 steals. Holiday looks to have found his shot, a beautiful jumper from the top of the key. This shot should not only be successful as a scoring option against a Virginia zone defense, but also as a way to open up MBA down low for some easy lay-ins/dunks. If MBA can make himself available and open, we will be well on our way to another 100 point game. With the so called "Three Headed Monster" of Ross/Suggs/Wilcox coming off the bench, we should expect them to combine for 20 to 30 points. Any one of them could step up and drop 15 on the Cavaliers. Aziz could have another fabulous showing, it all depends on how well he can make room for himself and convert.
This should be an exciting game to watch as a Husky fan. Virginia offers up some stiffer competition, that while still not top tier, is definitely better than what we have been facing. Some questions should be answered for the Dawgs today. Is MBA really improved or is this just like last season with a fantastic start and terrible first half of the year? Has Gant been able to improve to a point where he could get 20 minutes a game? How good has Gaddy become? Is he back to his All-American status? Who, out of Ross, Suggs, and Wilcox, will step up with some consistency and earn themselves major minutes? And lastly, how good are the Huskies? A first round loss would be a terrible blow to not only the team moral, but also how the Huskies and Pac-10 are viewed by the media. The Huskies should be able to get through the first round fairly easily and should have a tough game in the second round if they face Kentucky. I haven't seen as much of Oklahoma's ability as I would like so I can't really judge how well the Huskies would fare against them. Winning the tournament, most likely a final game against Michigan St the current number 2 team in the nation, would propel the Huskies into the top ten, possibly the top 5. It would also prove we are here to play, we can win and win big, and its not just due to a weak Pac-10 that we find success so often. Winning the tournament is a very real possibility if we find our rhythm and chemistry. It'll be interesting to see how playing time is dished out once we find ourselves against a tough team. My best guess is only two of the "three headed monster" will see significant time. I.T., Overton, and Gaddy should not be greatly affected as all three are now deadly efficient on the floor. Holiday and Gant will probably sub in and out with Ross. Leaving MBA, Aziz, and maybe Gant to play the low post minutes. The tougher games will probably see MBA and Gant or Gant and Aziz on the floor 80% of the time. We may see MBA and Aziz sharing the court, but not as often, at least 'til our big men can show they aren't going to get into foul trouble.
Score Prediction
This one is a little tougher for me to judge. Stanford put up 81 on Virginia. Mostly due to Jeremy Green dropping 21 on a 5 for 9 from range night. Stanford has one great shooter, we have a boat load. We have several players that could put up 20+ against Virginia, mainly MBA, I.T. and Holiday. If all three have 20 point nights this game won't be close in any sense of the word. Gaddy should have another stunning performance on Monday, putting up 10+ point, multiple assists, etc. I have high hopes for this game. Could we see the Huskies put up 100+? 110+? I'm not sure we can score that many points night in night out. If we could there wouldn't be a team in the nation that could stop us. It is very rare to see two teams put up 100+ points in a game without overtime in college, simply due to time constraints. It takes a lot of possessions to score a 100 points, 40 some possessions at 15 to 20 seconds each is about 13 minutes of play time. Considering most teams shoot about 50 to 60 percent that is over half the game for one team alone. Virginia has only posted season highs of 76 and 74 points against teams the Huskies would have easily dropped 100+ on, much like our first three games. Virginia only managed to break 80 points three times last season. They also finished last year with 9 straight losses in conference before their conference tournament. Due to their low caliber offense I only see the Cavaliers putting up 65 to 70 points. As for our offense, the sky is the limit. We have yet to see them play against a defense that could control them successfully. Even terrible shooting against Eastern's zone ended with 98 points.
I'm going to call it 95-68 UW. Eastern played a fast offense that allowed the Huskies many more possession than they normally would have had, allowing the first half slump to be canceled by a much more efficient and successful second half. Because Virginia plays slower, missed shots will take away more from the game than in previous outings. Our shooting should be improved from the Eastern game after a weeks worth of practice and some more work on breaking a zone defense. Let's hope the Dawgs can get it done in spectacular fashion.
*Edit* For the Virginia fans reading this: I am being sarcastic about The Tribe. I know who they are, I just don't know them as a basketball school. It's like our opener against McNeese and Eastern, joke schools that big D1 teams use as warm ups. From what I saw of Virginia against Stanford they did play more man than zone, but teams have a tendency to go zone on us after a while. Unfortunately, I do have to base a lot of my opinions on Virginia from stat sheet analysis. In much the same fashion the East coast does not see us play on the West, the East coast games are not always playing out here, especially the season openers against mid majors. Glad to see it's being discussed on your site, drop a few comments here for discussion, I'm sure Husky fans would love to have some back and forth.
Other links
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskymensbasketballblog/2013477945_final_practice.html
http://www.mynorthwest.com/category/college_hoops_blog/20101117/Overton-is-the-back-bone-behind-UW's-wish-bone/#comments
http://www.gohuskies.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/111910aaa.html
http://www.montlakemadness.com/maui-classic-scouting-virginia/
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskymensbasketballblog/2013493957_video_scouting_12.html
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