Well this preview comes with some good news after two huge let down games. The allegations of Rape in the Third Degree against a UW basketball player have resulted in NO charges being placed. Hopefully this means less distraction and more focus from our team.
The Ducks are 11-11 on the year, 4-6 in conference, and are coming off a decisive win over WSU on Thursday. The Huskies on the other hand are reeling a bit after two straight losses to WSU and OSU in terribly played games.
Only two players for the Ducks are averaging double digit points, but they have four players between 6.9 and 8.7 points per game. Joevan Catron leads the team with 15.8 points per game and is first on the team in rebounding at 6.6 boards per game.
Malcolm Armstead leads the team with 3.6 assists per game, but also has 2.9 turnovers per game. The Ducks are averaging 14 assists and 13 turnovers per game. They also average 8 steals per game, led by Armstead at 2.0 per game.
The Ducks are a team low on size, with their tallest contributing players standing at 6-8. They do have 6-10 Martin Seiferth who has played in 10 of the Ducks 22 games this season. Both E.J. Singler and Catron stand at 6-6. They are also the tallest players in the Ducks starting line up. Jonathan Loyd is the smallest at 5-8.
The Ducks are a fairly experienced team in that they have 2 seniors and 7 juniors, but they also only have 8 scholarship players on their roster currently. Several players were lost to graduations, early exits, and transfers. A lot of the transfers were due to the firing of long time coach, Ernie Kent, and the long process of hiring a new coach and athletic director.
The Ducks are a poor shooting team with an effective field goal percentage of 41.4%. They have raised their outside shooting percentage to 32.4%
Singler is the best player for the Ducks, in my opinion. Even if he isn't leading the team in scoring, he plays like Justin Holiday and does all the little things. Along with Catron and Armstead, the three look to be a dangerous trio.
With the Huskies coming in morally low and the Ducks coming in riding high I expect a close, tough game.
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
UW was absolutely dominated on the glass by OSU. OSU crashed hard and often, while UW was content to let them get the ball. MBA and Holiday did fine with 10 and 7 respectively, but they were the only ones with any success on the glass. UW needs to step it up. We average a +9.5 rebound margin in wins and a -1 in losses. Rebounding is key.
Outside Shooting
Oregon simply does not have the talent or depth to guard the perimeter as well as the post simultaneously. If MBA and/or Aziz can get going strong, the Ducks could drop back from their normal man to man pressure defense and resort to a zone in an attempt to cut back on our post positions. This is great for us as we have a plethora of talented outside shooters. C.J. Wilcox is still question with a Staph infection, but we have Isaiah Thomas, Justin Holiday, Darnell Gant, Venoy Overton, Terrence Ross, and Scott Suggs who have all shown to be talented outside shots. If the Ducks fall back inside we need to take advantage and shoot the lights out. It is likely the Ducks will zone from the start after seeing the success a sagging 2-3 zone has been against the Dawgs the past two games.
Pressure Defense
The Ducks are turnover prone, especially their point guard, Malcolm Armstead. With a talented backcourt with a ton of speed the Huskies can take advantage of the Ducks and create a ton of transition plays. The Ducks like to run full court pressure after a made basket, but do not possess the speed of our guards and this means the Huskies have a major change to get some big time dunks as well as many transition points, something we live off of. So on both offense and defense the success of the pressure will go a long ways towards the overall success of our game.
Defense
It needs to get better. Now. Venoy Overton doesn't have the fire he used to. Justin Holiday hasn't been locking players down. Our post players have been fouling like mad. OSU abused us inside last game.
Projected Starting Lineups
Oregon
Jonathan Loyd 5-8 160lb G
Jay-R Stowbridge 5-11 180lb G
Malcolm Armstead 6-0 195lb G
E.J. Singler 6-6 210lb F
Joevan Catron 6-6 245lb F
Washington
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb G
Scott Suggs 6-6 195lb G
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C
Final Thoughts
The Huskies need to come out with a will to win. The lacked it entirely in their game against OSU. Losing this one would pretty much take down title aspirations and would kill our tournament seeding and begin to place doubts on even a shot at the tournament. This team has too much potential and the ceiling is high for them if they can just find some consistency. They should not have lost to WSU or OSU. They shouldn't have lost to Stanford. Or MSU or Kentucky. All those games were very winnable with a small tweak here or there. MBA needs to play big and finish strong. Holiday needs to dunk the damn ball when he is open like in the OSU game. Screw laying it in nicely, dunk it. Finish strong. Get pumped. Speaking of dunking, I failed to mention Terrence Ross's sick tip in dunk. It was the exact same dunk Jared Cunningham of OSU had earlier this year. Monstrous. We need more of that. Strong and fired up defense will be key. The offense needs to execute. Get the ball inside. Set some screens. Pick and Roll. Mid Range jumpers. Bring it all out.
Final Score Prediction
UW-78 UO-72
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