Washington State is 17-10 on the year and 7-8 in conference. WSU most recently lost to ASU and UA on the road. In the last match up between UW and WSU, WSU forced UW into a season high 24 turnovers and UW lost by 7 on the road. Strong rebounding kept UW in the game until late despite the turnovers and poor shooting.
In order to keep their at-large bid secured, UW must win out these final 3 conference games and it all starts with WSU.
UW has a definitive edge at home, with an average margin of victory around 27 points and no victory at home this season was less than a 10 point margin of victory.
WSU's lone tournament hope is to win the Pac-10 tournament, but you can bet the Cougars would love to spoil our at-large hopes and drop us into the bubble. This is not a game to be taken lightly as the Cougars can be a very strong team when they get hot. It is important for UW to keep the crowd in the game and get hot early to extinguish any hopes of an upset once more.
DeAngelo Casto recently shaved off his dreads, but it hasn't helped his game yet.
Klay Thompson continues to be the lone star for the Cougars, but his support crew is slowly coming into their own. They are a very young team who could compete for the title in another year or two when they have a bit more experience under their belts. Thompson is currently leading the Pac-10 in scoring with 21.2 points per game as well as being second on the team in rebounding with 5.2 boards per game. Thompson is also leading the Cougars in assists with 4.0 per game and steals with 1.8 per game. Thompson has the team high in turnovers with 3.6 per game. He is a one man show, doing everything good, and bad, for the Cougars.
The Cougars run a 9 man rotation with 5 players picking up 25+ minutes per game, led by Thompson at 34.3 minutes per outing and followed closely by Reggie Moore at 34.1 minutes per game.
4 players contribute significant points per game for the Cougars (~8+ ppg). Thompson, as said above, leads the team with 21.2. There is a significant drop to the second player, Faisal Aden who scores about 12.9 per game. Casto is the last double digit scorer at 11.4 points on average and Moore rounds out the group with 9.8 ppg.
Casto leads the Cougs in rebounding with 6.5 per game. Moore is second on the team in assists with 3.6 per outing.
The Cougars are averaging 73 points, 34 boards, 14 assists, and 13 turnovers per game. They are shooting a pretty nice 35.8% from behind the arc and 69% at the free throw line. Thompson leads the Cougars in both categories with 81.3% from the charity stripe and 41.5% from range.
Starting Line Up Predictions
Washington State
Reggie Moore 6-1 180lb G
Marcus Capers 6-4 185lb G
Klay Thompson 6-6 202lb G
Brock Motum 6-10 230lb F
DeAngelo Casto 6-8 255lb F
Washington
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb G
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb G
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
This stat is one of the most important for the Huskies. It has kept us close in several games as well as separated us quickly in others. UW was dominated on the glass by Arizona and in the end it was one of the factors that cost them the game. UW must continue their success in rebounding, which begins with more strong showings from Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Aziz N'Diaye. Our perimeter players need to do their job and box their men out to prevent a sea of red inside the paint.
Ball Handling/Turnovers
Turnovers demolished the Huskies in Pullman. 24 turnovers is twice as many as this team should have on any given day. We cannot afford to commit similar mistakes on Sunday and risk a repeat of the Pullman game. Isaiah Thomas needs to bring back his A game in terms of passing and handling. He dishes out the assists well enough game in and game out, but his turnover numbers have gone up the last week or so. He is trying to do too much or is playing half assed. Neither is acceptable. I.T. needs to return to the roots of what he was doing well in those first few games without Abdul Gaddy. He also needs to get his confidence at the free throw line back.
Outside Shooting
The Cougars have done a fantastic job this season defending the perimeter shots. UW shoots much better at home and needs to find a rhythm early in the game. Their 1-9 shooting in the first half against SU was ugly and will be the death of us against a more skilled team such as WSU. When we are not hitting outside we need to become more patient and work the ball inside for an easier, higher percentage shot.
Push the Middle
The best way to open up our shooters is by getting MBA the ball inside. Even Aziz is becoming a stronger option as he has been much more aggressive in the paint and is developing a nice hook shot.I.T. should look to drive, but if he isn't getting good shots, is turning it over, and not getting foul calls then he needs to back the ball out and work the perimeter more before penetrating. It would be nice to see Overton use his speed and agility to get inside and at least drive and dish.
Free Throw Shooting
Free throws win close ball games. We missed 5 against UA in a one point loss. Any one of those misses would have tied the game and any two could have won it. We don't get much home cooking at Hec Ed so make the easy ones for Pete's sake.
Bench Production
With UW down to an 8 man rotation while Scott Suggs recovers it is important that our bench can produce and allow our starters some rest. Presumably Wilcox will start again and allow I.T. and Overton to rotate with a little more ease when one or the other needs a break. Terrence Ross and Darnell Gant need to continue to help and contribute where they can, especially on the glass.
Final Thoughts
This will be a tough game, but even Arizona fell by 17 here. UW has been playing some of its best basketball as of late, evident by the one point loss to Arizona on the road due to a debatable block/goaltend call, as well as some mistake made earlier by the team. WSU will be hard pressed to win this game, especially after the WSU student section rushed the court for some odd reason. The Husky players took this to heart and you can bet they are looking to settle the score. After a humiliating loss to last place ASU and their bubble popped, the Cougars are a team with nothing to lose and that is often one of the most dangerous types of teams to play. Think USC last season when they were banned from post season play.
Final Score Prediction
UW-88 WSU-75
The Cougs could play this one close for a majority of the game or this could be blown open from the start, it really depends on the mental attitude and level of play the Huskies bring from the start. We cannot afford to start slow as we do all too often. While I would like to start Venoy Overton to get some spark to start the game, he is not tall enough to keep a mismatch against I.T. from happening. We also need Overton to be able to sub in and out with Isaiah should either get into foul trouble. MBA against Casto should be a good match up and it will be interesting to see how Holiday and Gant are able to perform defensively against Klay Thompson at home.
As of the time I wrote this, UA just lost to USC on the road. If UCLA can complete the sweep and either UO or OSU beats UA AND we win out we will win at least a share of the title. Unlikely scenario, but it could happen. OSU has won 3 straight against UA, including one on UA's court last season. Could they make it 4-0? I sure hope so. UO has been playing pretty strong the past few games as well.
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