Texas Tech Preview

UW is looking to avenge last year's OT loss to Texas Tech, which ended 99-92 in the first OT. A quick recap of that game.

Elston Turner had two free throw opportunities to take the lead in the final seconds in what was a tied game at 80-80. He missed both. On the second miss, Tech rebounded and Mike Singultary made a desperation shot that went in as time expired. After further review it was determined the shot was not off in time and did not count. Tech students had rushed the court and were pushed off and a slight delay occurred as the floor needed to be cleaned. Tech out scored UW 19-12 in over time period to win the game.

Texas Tech is coming off an 86-82 win over Oral Roberts and are 5-3 on the year. Mike Singultary played a dominate game for Texas Tech with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists. He also had two turnovers. Three other players scored in double digits. Three of the four Tech players in double digits played 35+ minutes. Only two bench players played more than 10 minutes in the game.

Texas Tech coming into the game scoring almost 80 points a game, 34 rebounds, and 16 assists shooting 47% from the field. UW is currently 2nd in ppg and apg at 93.7 and 20 respectively. They are also averaging 41 rebounds per game and shooting 50.1% from the field, 45.5% from range (thank you C.J.).

Texas Tech is similar to LBSU in that their 5 starters are averaging 27+ minutes a piece but unlike LBSU they have 4 reserves averaging 13+ minutes. The Tech bench is averaging 20 of the teams 80 points per game (25%). Currently the UW bench is averaging 35 of the teams 94 points per game (37%). Currently 10 players on UW's squad average 13+ minutes, with 6 of the 10 players 20+ minutes, and the maximum minutes per game is 27 for Isaiah Thomas, the minimum minutes for the Texas Tech starters.

Size wise, Tech is very similar to UW. Tech's tallest player is 6-10 center and starter Robert Lewandowski. Tech has two players each at 6-8 and 6-7. Their guards range between 5-11 and 6-4 while their forwards are between 6-6 and 6-8.

John Roberson and Mike Singultary are the lead scorers for Texas Tech at 13.5 and 12.8 ppg. Singultary is the second leading rebounder at 6 per game behind Lewandowski at 6.9 rpg. Roberson is leading the team with 3.8 assists per game as well as the most made threes at 19 on 49 attempts (~39%). Singultary is currently 1 for 15 from the arc. Lewandowski is 14 of 15 from the free throw line.

So what kind of team is Texas Tech? They are fairly experienced with 7 seniors on the roster, 2 juniors, and 2 sophomores. They start 4 seniors and a junior. They finished last season at 19-16 and are 42-45 under current head coach Pat Knight, son of famous Bob Knight. Tech does not have the best defense, currently allowing 75 ppg only 5 points below their own ppg. UW is also allowing 75 ppg, though it is 19 ppg below their average.

Texas Tech recently lost to St. Mary's 88-68 at a neutral site. In that game Lewandowski had 12 points and 10 rebounds.

Starting Line Ups


Texas Tech


John Roberson 5-11 168 lb G
David Tairu 6-3 177 lb G
Brad Reese 6-6 195 lb F
Mike Singultary 6-6 235 lb F
Robert Lewandowski 6-10 256 lb C

Washington


Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185 lb SG
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 195 lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185 lb F
Darnell Gant 6-6 225lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260 lb C

I'm giving Aziz the start, because I think Romar is still proving a point to MBA that he needs to perform at an elite level at all times and not just against small and weak teams.

Though MBA went 7-7 with 4 rebounds, most of his shots were open dunks and not moves made on players that required skills and post moves. Aziz had 1 point and 1 rebound during the LBSU game. I blame this on busting his face going for a loose ball, something I think is very commendable and is great to see. Next time he dives for a loose ball he should take care not to hurt himself, we need him. Aziz also had trouble with the zone defense. I think we will find ourselves against a man defense, allowing Aziz to play a better game. He will come out with something to prove in my opinion, prove that he deserves the start.

Whether Aziz or MBA starts is a coin toss in my opinion with the lean going towards Aziz. Either way we should be strong in the middle. What Romar will do will be interesting to see. Personally I think MBA needs to start on the bench 1 or 2 more games until he proves he is going to be playing consistently against tougher opponents.

Keys to the Game


Rebounding


If UW wants to keep this game out of reach for the Red Raiders, they must rebound first and foremost. Tech is not the best rebounding team at 34 a game with 46% of those rebounds being offensive. Washington current averages 41 a game with over 60% offensive boards. Lewandowski is their best rebounder, having multiple 10+ board games. Where UW has the rebounding advantage is our backcourt. The Tech guards do not rebound nearly as good as ours, while their frontcourt is on par, maybe slightly better, than ours. This is a big game in terms of showing that we can rebound against tougher teams. That being said Tech is not a terribly good team, slightly better than LBSU, most likely we will face the same sort of skill as Virginia (Kenpom has Virginia at 80 and Tech at 82). Once again, I expect MBA and Aziz to double team the Tech starter and use their fresher legs to get all over the place and snatch up the boards.

I expect our leading rebounder to be Justin Holiday for this game, though I want it to MBA or Aziz. I say this because I expect Holiday to be much more skilled than the Texas Tech forwards, allowing him to get better positioning on his man. Hopefully Aziz will have a better day than he did on Tuesday against a team who plays more man defense than zone. Also hopeful that his lip is feeling better and the stitches are healing nicely. His play can really be exceptional when he is on his game. His stats are not always stellar, but his size really is a factor that the stats don't show. Penetrating guards have a tough time getting their shots off. His defensive improvement is what really pleases me. He has lapse moments where he gets some over the back calls, but being 7 feet tall thats bound to happen. He is getting much better at knowing when to keep his feet and when to go up for the block, what still needs work is boxing out and getting the rebound when there is already a man or two on the shot taker.

MBA needs to prove he can play against bigger players, something that will be key when he has to bang against guys like DeAngelo Casto, rolly polly Josh Smith, Reeves Nelson, and Derrick Williams. Here is a chance to play against a skilled post player with similar size. If he can't get it done tomorrow, it's going to be tough to do well against Pac-10 opponents. We need him to grab 8 to 12 boards while limiting Lewandowski to 7 or less.

Defense


Texas Tech is not the most proficient offensive team, but all 5 starters are scoring in the double digits. This, to me, means any of said players could go for 20+ points if left unchecked, something Roberson did last game making 29 points on 11 for 18 shooting (6 of 9 from the free throw line, 1 for 2 from range). We need to play tough, Husky defense to prevent such a thing from happening. I.T. has almost 20 lbs on the man he will most likely guard, John Roberson. Isaiah should be quick and strong enough to prevent Roberson for driving very effectively, meaning he needs to stay out on the ball and prevent the 3 point shot which Roberson knocks down at a decent clip. 39% is a pretty good average and he had twice as many makes as the next Tech player.

MBA and Aziz will need to be at their best on the block so Lewandowski doesn't dominate the paint and give Tech a a way to stay in the game. Limiting second chance points by snatching defensive rebounds while maximizing our own second chance opportunities will be a significant factor in whether this game is a 10 point win or 30+ point blowout.

Perimeter Play


Both offensively and defensively, this is important. Last game LBSU made the game slightly interesting after a string of 3 point makes. Against tough teams where the score is closer this will absolutely kill us (see the MSU game where their inbounds play that led to several 3 pointers allowed them to retake the lead and eventually win the game). UW needs to prevent the Texas Tech players from getting in a rhythm from range. We need to force the guards to drive or take bad shots. Our center defense is solid and our backcourt defense is one of the best in the nation.

Our offense really excels when we make crisp, clean passes around the arc to open players. This forces a lot of defensive movement, causes confusion, opens the middle, and creates opportunities. If you have a chance, watch the LBSU game again. Look at the shots Wilcox takes, on two plays I can think of off the top of my head he received crisp, chest height passes from Overton and Holiday allowing him to catch and shoot in motion much like in practices and warm ups. From there muscle memory takes over and the result is that perfect stroke we are so privileged to have.

When our three point shots are dropping we are rolling and not a team in the nation can beat us. When they are off the game gets more competitive and we struggle to find a rhythm, not to say we don't play well, but we seem to panic.

Tempo


With our deep and talented bench, we need to play our game, play uptempo, push the ball, and wear out the Texas Tech starters.
That being said we cannot outplay ourselves. Too many senseless turnovers were committed against LBSU due to overplaying our offense. We played too fast for our own good and our play turned a little chaotic. We need to keep our heads and not force breaks that aren't there. Feel free to drive and penetrate, but if the gap isn't there, dish it out and work the ball around. The shot will come. We have enough weapons that we should always have a capable and open player on the court.

Drive the Middle


This comes down to not only I.T., Gaddy, and Overton, but also MBA and Aziz. Our frontcourt needs to establish themselves as scoring threats so our perimeter play can work efficiently. I.T., Gaddy, and Overton need to collapse the defense by driving the middle, sometimes the shot will be there and they should take it if its there, but they need to be willing to pass out when the shot is too tough. Gaddy does the best job of that in my opinion. Overton is the most prone to over penetrate and shoot a bad shot. I.T. is generally very capable of taking even the strangest shots and making them somehow.

After nearly dunking on Kentucky and I believe in the McNeese State game, I would really like to see Isaiah throw down a Nate Robinson type dunk. It's something we haven't seen out of him the first two season and I think it would go a long ways towards pumping up the team and the crowd.

Final Thoughts


This should be another blow out type game. I don't think Texas has shown themselves to be competitive against upper tier opponents. Losing by 20 to St. Mary's at a "neutral" site game is pretty rough. The Dawg Pack may not be as loud as they have been in recent years, but its a home game for what I feel is a top 15 or top 10 team. As long as we keep our heads and play our game this is a no contest situation.

Score Prediction


UW-105 TTU-72




Other Links


http://www.montlakemadness.com/game-preview-texas-tech/
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskymensbasketballblog/2013586673_scouting_report_8.html
http://freepdfhosting.com/408ee5aab4.pdf - Dirt for the Game

How close was Gordon Hayward when he nearly upset Duke? Very close
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/19243/video-sport-science-butlers-last-shot
.5 mph less on the release and half a degree to the left on release and Butler wins it all