UCLA is coming off a Pac-10 win against WSU, final score 80 to 71. Malcolm Lee and Reeves Nelson each scored 21, Nelson had 11 rebounds and Tyler Honeycutt added 9 rebounds alongside his 14 points.
UCLA is 9-4 on the season. Much like USC, their record is deceiving in two ways. UCLA lost by 1 to then #4 Kansas on the road after a controversial call resulting in two free throws to give Kansas the win. They followed this up by a 9 point loss at home to Montana. Their four losses came in a streak starting with a loss to now #8 and then #7 Villanova by 12, 4 point loss to VCU, then the two losses stated above. They are now on a 6 game winning streak all of which are home games.
UCLA is led by a dynamic duo of Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson. Honeycutt, 6-8 188, is a similar build to Justin Holiday, though he is slightly taller and only 3 pounds heavier. Honeycutt is a solid rebounder 8.1 rebounds per game. He also brings in a team high 14.8 points per game. Reeves Nelson is called by many "Baby Brockman" or a poor mans Brockman. He is a tough rebounder and player, nose to the grind every minute of the game. He is currently scoring 14.7 points per game and averages 8.0 rebounds per game. UCLA also has Josh Smith starting at center. At 6-10 and supposedly 305lbs, looks like he is closer to 320, he is an imposing force. He is averaging 10.1 points and 6.8 rebounds per game in 19.6 minutes. Smith is the only starter averaging less than 28 minutes per game.
Malcolm Lee and Lazeric Jones are the starting guards for UCLA. Jones is averaging 3.5 assists and 2.2 turnovers per game, while Lee is averaging 2.0 assists and 1.6 turnovers. They combine for 24.1 points.
UCLA runs a 9 man rotation with 3 bench players receiving significant time, the 4th averages 6.5 minutes per game. Their bench only averages 12.8 points per game out of their 74.5 points per game (~17%).
UCLA is averaging 15 turnovers a game led by Honeycutt with 3.3 per game. The UCLA guards are combining for 6.6 turnovers per game.
Smith, Reeves, and Lee all picked up 4 fouls against WSU and this is the 7th game Josh has picked up 4 fouls.
Starting Line Up Predictions
UCLA
Lazeric Jones 6-0 187lb G
Malcolm 6-5 200lb G
Tyler Honeycutt 6-8 188 lb F
Reeves Nelson 6-8 235lb F
Josh Smith 6-10 305lb C
UW
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb SG
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 195lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
UCLA is a strong rebounding team. With Nelson and Honeycutt each averaging 8+ and Smith nearly grabbing 7 per game they have a strong starting group of rebounders. UCLA is averaging just over 38 per game and will be tough competition for UW. After a strong showing against USC (44-28) confidence should be high and expectations are also high. Holiday will have a key match up against Honeycutt and it is extremely important he brings his A-game defensively and offensively on the glass. Box out and get position. MBA will have his work cut out for him against Nelson who is an extremely hard worker and excellent rebounder. Aziz will have to use all his muscle and size to contain Smith. Our guards will need to take advantage of their rebounding skills to help our bigs out and take some of the load off of them.
Contain Honeycutt
Between Nelson and Honeycutt, Honeycutt has the biggest chance of being shutdown and is currently the most impacting player on the Bruin squad. He is turnover prone and Holiday needs to take advantage of this using his long arms and great defensive skills. Containing Honeycutt and limiting not only his touches, but rebounds will greatly help our team. Look for Darnell Gant to possibly pick up the assignment at times when Holiday is on the bench.
Get in Transition
The UCLA guards are slightly better than last season, but are still vulnerable to tough defensive opposition like Isaiah and Overton. Last game against USC, UW had 0 transition and fast break points. Smith is very slow in transition and UW needs to use this to gain numbers on the run. With both MBA and Aziz running well look for them to get some nice transition lay-ups and dunks. MBA is more likely to be the recipient of such passes and plays as Aziz usually stays close to home on the glass. Lee is a fast player and Overton will need to play well and fast to keep pace. Abdul will likely need to rely on Aziz and/or MBA helping in the middle to prevent him from lighting up the boards.
Shooting
We beat USC without C.J.'s range, but found Ross' shot to be just as excellent. Holiday also sank some key baskets. UW shot poorly through most of the game and has lacked its outside touch the past few games. The Huskies need to find the hot hand and let him get some shots off. This comes down to not only Romar drawing up plays, but the team creating opportunities themselves. If I am Romar, I am putting Ross on the court and letting him test his hand. He went 4-8 from range and everyone of them was important to the games outcome. He created shots on the baseline using his ball handling skills and shot with defenders in his face from range and sunk them. We need to find at least two outside shooters to give us solid flow and scoring. IT will be looking to have a field day and may find some luck against the slightly shorter UCLA line up. Smith is slow to the ball and may pick up fouls on our driving guards if he is caught out of position.
Passing
UW did terrible with its ball handling and passing against USC, picking up 17 turnovers and only 7 assists. UCLA does not pack the middle like USC does and UW needs to create the opportunities it missed out on against USC. With better passing comes better shot selection and higher scoring.
Ball Handling
After a terrible night at USC, Isaiah and the other guards need to get their ball handling under control. This, along side rebounding, is probably the biggest key to winning this game. If we can handle the ball well we will find open players, make solid plays, and get our shooters rolling.
Post Defense
With a strong frontcourt, MBA, Aziz, and Gant once again have their work cut out for them. They need to avoid foul trouble and use good help defense to block shots and rebound. Our bigs need to avoid silly rebounding fouls and use their strength to gain position.
Toughness and Grit
They showed it against USC and it will be needed again against UCLA. Road games are always tough and Pauley Pavilion is always a tough venue for the Huskies. Last season they suffered a 1 point loss on a last second buzzer beating 3 point shot. They know they can win on the road and do it against the worst circumstances. If they play tough and play their game, the Huskies will be able to win. Maintaining composure, even when down, will be important. This will likely be a back and forth game through the first 25 to 30 minutes before the Huskies bench and depth can open things up.
Bench Play
Our depth is where our greatest strength and opportunity for victory lies. UCLA has very little bench production and the use of fresh, talented legs will be key. If we can get Ross and/or Suggs hot, things will be looking good. This also implies that our starters are holding their own. Overton and Gant coming off the bench will provide some strong and needed defensive skills to shut down Lee and Honeycutt/Nelson.
Final Thoughts
UW will be in another tough and grind 'um match up. UCLA is a big, physical team who will use its size to play an inside out style of game. Could we see UW utilize the zone again? Doubtful, UCLA is a better outside shooting team than USC and our team is sized and skilled in the right places to take advantage of UCLA's short comings. Nelson and Smith will prove to be tough match ups and UCLA will look to them more often than anyone else. With Holiday on Honeycutt, that option will be mostly shut down. If we can play a tough game, rebound, and get some shots dropping we will be fine.
Final Score Prediction
UW-83 UCLA-75
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