UNR is currently 3-8 on the year coming off a win against Portland State on Monday, 79-73. Their other two wins came against SFSU, 78-64, and an impressive Montana team, 81-66. They lost by 3 to ASU and 12 to then #23 UNLV.
UNR had one proven and solid rebounder in Dario Hunt who is averaging 9.5 a game. Duke transfer, Olek Czyz, has only played in two games due to NCAA rules preventing play until the last two games. He is averaging 6.0 rebounds in his two games pulling in 7 one game and 5 another. He could be another solid rebounder for UNR. He is already taking starting minutes and it should be assumed we will start against the Huskies.
Only three players are scoring in double digits for the Wolfpack. Malik Story is averaging 13.5 points per game, followed by Dario Hunt at 12.1 ppg, and Deonte Burton at 11.2 ppg.
Dario is easily the Wolfpack's best player. He is a 6-8 230lb F. MBA will most likely draw the starting defensive assignment unless Romar goes back on what he said and starts Darnell at the 4 instead of MBA. Darnell is big enough at 6-8 225lb to guard Dario so either way we will be fine.
The Wolfpack does have some size with one player at 6-9, two at 6-10, and 1 at 6-11. All have played in 10+ games this season and are averaging 11+ minutes a game.
Malik is the team's three point specialist hitting 28 of 60 on the year, good for almost 47%. At 6-5 you have to imagine Gaddy will be assigned shut down duty with C.J. coming in later to take over. Deonte Burton is the other starting guard. At 6-1 Isaiah will have some work to do, but he has shown before that he can shut down guys much taller than he is.
The Wolfpack is extremely turnover prone averaging 16 turnovers per game thus far. Their starters are averaging 10.6 turnovers per game so far, 4.9 tpg from the two starting guards. This is a chance for Overton to get some steals once again and our backcourt to really get after it and make some impressive plays in transition. UNR opponents are averaging 12.8 turnovers per game and 7.5 steals per game. UW opponents are averaging 19 turnovers per game and 5.7 steals per game.
Keys to the Game
Perimeter Defense
The Wolfpack has two players shooting near 50% from range. It is vital that our backcourt shuts down the perimeter and forces tough shots and limits open ones as UNR has the players to score those kinds of baskets if left unchecked. Tough perimeter defense will also limit the number of touches Dario Hunt receives, which is extremely important as he has the biggest chance at hurting UW.
Shooting
UW needs to end their non conference schedule, SU doesn't count as it is much later in the year, on a high note. Coming out and dropping 100 will lift spirits and get some shooting momentum going into Pac-10 play against a tall and tough USC team who lost by 2 to Kansas (#3 in the nation). Luckily we showed some resilience against USF and were able to score despite our outside shots not dropping. Expect to see some lights out shooting from UW tomorrow as several players will be trying to prove to the fans and themselves that it was just an off night and they can still shoot like Gods.
Turnovers
Limiting our own is a given. No team wants to give up 10+ turnovers a game. UW managed a season low of 4 turnovers against USF with our guards, Venoy, IT, and Gaddy, combining for a 19-1 assist-turnover ration. Very impressive. If we can force UNR to commit 20 turnovers and score in transition this game will be sealed in no time. UW is currently averaging 5.1 blocks per game and 9.4 steals per game. Maintaining those averages alone puts us at 14.5 turnovers. Look for MBA and hopefully Aziz to throw down with authority in transition. Maybe even IT will please the crowd with a dunk.
Rebounding
UNR is averaging 39.1 rpg and UW is averaging 39.3 rpg. The biggest difference is UNR has one extremely proficient rebounder in Dario Hunt. Olek appears as if he will be a good rebounder as well, but it is hard to judge from two games. Our post will have their work cut out for them, trying to clean the glass. If UNR is able to rebound efficiently and limit our second chance points as well as maximize their own, this game could be much closer than it should be. Winning the rebounding battle by 10+ against a solid rebounding team will be great going into Pac-10 play against USC who is averaging a pretty decent 36 rpg. Aziz, Holiday, and MBA are combining for 18 boards per game. They will need to bring their A-game once again. Hopefully MBA and/or Aziz can pick up 10+ to get the flow going. MBA did a fantastic job last game grabbing 9 by using Aziz's presence to draw attention away from him.
Starting Line Ups
UNR
Deonte Burnton 6-1 185lb G
Malik Story 6-5 225lb G
Olek Czyz 6-7 240lb F
Dario Hunt 6-8 225lb F
Kevin Panzer 6-9 205lb F
UW
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb SG
Abdul Gaddy 6-4 195lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C
Final Thoughts
Looking at the line ups side by side there is some notable weight differences at the various positions. I think Aziz will be covering who ever plays the 5 spot, regardless of height/weight. His presence in the middle is a force to be reckoned with. This could mean he has a 55lb advantage or a 20lb advantage. If he is covered by Kevin Panzer, Aziz need to throw his weight around and pick up some major points and boards. MBA will likely draw Olek from looking at the weight difference. Holiday would be giving up to much weight to effectively guard Olek, despite his long athletic frame. Holiday will most likely be covering Dario Hunt as Holiday doe a fantastic job shutting players down. IT should be able to out muscle Burton and Gaddy may have one of the tougher assignments against Malik Story. Story is tall and strong with a good shot. Gaddy's defense will need to be at its best for this game.
Final Score Prediction
UW-97 UNR-64
I want to say we will score 100, but USF played an extremely slow game and limited our opportunities on a poor shooting night. UNR plays a slow offense as well, not USF slow, but not nearly the pace UW plays. If UW can force the tempo we will be rocking and rolling by nights end.
Edit: Additional Thoughts.
So I repeated a little of what I said above, but I thought I would post a comment I left on Montlake as I discussed some more aspects of the game as well as what I saw against USF that could/should be implemented against UNR
"I think one of the more interesting aspects of this game will be the defensive assignments. The Wolfpack players are oddly mis-proportioned. Kevin Panzer is 6-9 205lb while Olek is 6-7 240lb and Dario is 6-8 225lb. You have to imagine Aziz will be guarding Panzer as it is Aziz’s job to suck up the middle, yet his size is being somewhat underused against a small center. Ideally Holiday would take Panzer as he is closer in weight to Holiday, but Holiday is not a post defender. I personally think he will draw Dario as Holiday is a great shutdown defender and Holiday doesn’t give up too much against him size wise. You have to imagine MBA will be on Olek due to his strength and weight. This is a big chance for MBA to prove last game was not a fluke and he is turning the corner on rebounding, especially with Aziz on the court at the same time.
Malik is also an interesting assignment. He is a prolific 3 point shooter hitting 28-60 so far. He weighs in at 225lb, pretty big for a 6-5 guy so I am not sure what kind of quickness he brings. Gaddy should have his work cut out for him though if Malik is fairly quick. Isaiah on the other hand should have a fairly easy time with his man as Isaiah is much stronger and likely quicker as well.
I am expecting our team to force close to 23-25 turnovers. Hopefully we can limit ours to under 10 again (under 5 again perhaps? That would be nice). This will allow our transition game to flourish. I want it to lead to a monster jam from Aziz and IT. Both players have yet to throw down something vicious. Aziz did look much better against USF, throwing down with some strength and authority rather than pussy footing around and dinking it off the front of the rim. I like that fire. We saw it against UK and he picked up 10 boards and 5 blocks. He only managed 5 boards and 4 blocks against USf, but he also put up 9 points.
If Kevin is forced to guard Aziz, Romar would be wise to make plays getting the ball down low to Aziz so he can use his 55lb and 3 inch advantage to score a ton of points. Gaddy and Overton, especially, did a fantastic job of finding Aziz for the easy dunk and score. Aziz could see 25 minutes against UNR depending on how things play out. I’d like to see him put up another double-double and possibly a 20 point night.
While Burton is quite capable, I think the biggest problem for UW will be Dario. He is big, strong, and very well rounded. 9.5 rpg along with 11.2 ppg is Brockman-esque and is quite scary. Whoever is guarding him will need help from the backcourt defenders to limit the number of touches he gets. Boxing out and team rebounding will be critical. Olek could also go off and grab 10+ boards. He seems very capable after his first two games.
Big time game for the Dawgs, they should roll, but I hope they avoid their shooting struggles they had on Saturday. That was a bit painful to watch at times. Thank God Suggs stepped up and went into beast mode. The only bad part was Romar only giving him 15 minutes despite him being the only effective shooter on the night. Give him 20-25 minutes and he puts up 20+ points easy. If they can win the rebounding battle against a solid rebounding team like UNR they should be feeling better about themselves going into the Pac-10 opener against USC (which btw I can’t believe FSN is not going to televise that game, showing instead WSU-UCLA. Pretty bogus.)
I am excited to see how the Huskies come out and play. Nevada isn’t the strongest team, but they have played some close games down to the wire that they ended up losing (sounds familiar eh?) and could be a competitive team if we play to their strength rather than forcing our own tempo and forcing the game into our style.
I love the press. I don’t know why Romar doesn’t utilize it more with the speed, stamina, and depth of our team. We have some of the greatest defenders in the nation, yet we limit their ability to force a ton of turnovers by using the press. It doesn’t have to be used all game, but I would like to see it more than 1 game a season and more than just in the draining minutes of a tight game. I want him to bring it out against UNR as they also appear to be a slow offense team, not USF slow but still slow. Think Portland speed."
Links
Dawg Pack Dirt: http://freepdfhosting.com/b69dec8e14.pdf
Montlake Madness: http://www.montlakemadness.com/game-preview-nevada/
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