USC enters this game with an 8-5 record that is much better and worse than it appears at first glance. They have beaten two top 25 teams in Texas and Tennessee and narrowly lost to #3 Kansas. They also have a 20 point loss a home to Rider and a 1 point loss at home to Bradley.
USC is currently averaging 69.1 points per game and 35.6 rebounds per game. They also bring in 12.2 assists per game and 13 turnovers per game, including 2.9 per game by starting point guard Maurice Jones and 2.7 per game by guard Jio Fontan.
Until 3 games ago, USC lacked transfer Jio Fontan and he seems to have stabilized USC and made them into a strong competitive team. USC was also playing a 7 man rotation, bu are now using an 8 man rotation with the addition of Fontan.
Nikola Vucevic is by far the most dangerous player in the USC line up, nearly averaging a double double with 15.3 ppg and 9.8 rpg. He is a beast in the post and will be a tough challenge for our bigs to contend with. Add in Alex Stephenson who is also near a double double average with 9.8 ppg and 8.6 rpg and you have yourself a very dangerous duo. Hopefully MBA and Aziz who have been averaging a combined 23 ppg and 17.5 rpg in the last two outings can contend with these two talent post players. MBA will likely guard Vucevic as Vucevic has a nice outside shot. This will allow Aziz to stay close to home in the middle of the key to get rebounds and play tough defense. The one bonus is the USC frontcourt is not deep. After Vucevic and Stephenson, USC does not have any contributing forwards. Garrett Jackson averages 3.5 ppg and 1.7 rpg. Thankfully we have Darnell Gant who is averaging 6.3 ppg and 3.0 rpg, though he can score much more than 6 on any given night.
Another tough assignment is Jio Fontan. After 3 games he is leading the team in scoring with 16.3 ppg and also throws in 3.3 assists and 2.3 steals per game. These are solid numbers and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain them through conference play. Isaiah will likely be given the responsibility of handling Fontan. Fontan has made 5 of his 8 three point attempts.
Starting Line Ups
USC
Maurice "Mo-Mo" Jones 5-7 155lb G
Jio Fontan 6-0 175lb G
Marcus Simmons 6-6 220lb G
Nikola Vucevic 6-10 240lb F
Alex Stephenson 6-10 250lb F
UW
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb SG
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 195 lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
This is the biggest issue the Huskies will have to deal with. USC does not rebound by committee, rather USC rebounds via Vucevic and Stephenson who account for half of USC's rebounds. MBA and Aziz will have their work cut out for them. Its a sink or swim sort of moment for MBA who needs to prove himself against worthy opponents. Aziz also needs to show he can be dominate once more on the glass against tough foes. Now that he is able to play 20+ minutes a game, his numbers are improving and his impact is becoming greater. If MBA and Aziz can combine for 15 or 16 boards while limiting the USC duo to 12 or 14 we should consider their play a success. Vucevic and Stephenson will get boards no doubt, how many depends on the sort of effort MBA and Aziz put out. Our other players need to limit their opponents from getting loose balls as well, especially off long range misses. The less second chance points USC gets the better off we shall be.
Pressure Defense
Though USC is only averaging 12 turnovers a game, their three main guards are averaging a combined 7.8 turnovers a game, the lowest is Bryce Jones at 2.2 per game. Vucevic is also averaging 2.0 turnovers while Stephenson is averaging 1.8 per games. Last season, USC was highly susceptible to 3/4 and full court pressure defense and so far it appears it is true once more. If UW want to control this game they need to get the tempo going in their favor and that means getting the ball out in transition. USC usually runs a good half court offense so forcing them to step up the tempo and play faster than usual should create more turnovers and opportunities for the Huskies to score. This will also limit 3 point opportunities for Fontan and Bryce Jones, both of whom can shoot the long ball with some proficiency.
Shooting
If we can get our perimeter shots to drop, our post players will have an easier day with a little less pressure on their backs. If we can't get the ball to drop from range, we will struggle mightily. USC's frontcourt is tough and scoring on them will prove to be tough as well. We need to find our shot on the road early in the season if we wish to gain any respect and not have to rely on the Pac-10 tournament to secure a spot in March Madness. If we can get scoring, USC won't stand a chance. There is a 20 point differential in our scoring averages, but only a 6 point differential in opponents scoring. Basically this translates to when we are scoring well we are golden, when we cannot find our shot it will be tough.
Passing
We continue to pass extremely well with our guard trio averaging a combined 12.7 assists per game with only 4.7 turnovers per game giving us an A/T ratio of nearly 2.7. USC is sitting at 9.6 assists from their trio and 7.8 turnovers for a ratio of 1.23. Clearly the advantage is ours if we continue to make 19 to 20 assists per game and force 18 to 20 turnovers per game. Playing patient and making the extra pass will go a long ways towards securing the lead and victory. It also lets us play our game and not falter under USC's pressure.
Final Thoughts
A tough road test to start the season is a mixed blessing. It means we could get our knocks early in a tough loss, but we have experienced those already against TAMU and slightly against MSU and UK. Win and we should be feeling much better about the season's prospects. We should be ready by now to take the conference by storm and statistically UW is superior in almost every category. This is a game that will likely come down to the final 5 or 10 minutes. With USC's strength playing the same spots as some of our weaknesses this game will not just blow over. We really need to play well, shoot well, and defend well. Limiting the USC post play will go a long ways towards winning in LA. All things considered I think UW can get this one done.
Final Score Prediction
UW-74 USC 68
USC's post presence will limit the scoring of MBA and Aziz while providing some second chance points for the Trojans. UW will eventually overcome using its superior bench and backcourt play.
Links
http://www.montlakemadness.com/game-preview-usc/
http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2010/12/29/2010-12-29_washington_vs_southern-california
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