University of Arizona Preview

In what is arguably the most important conference game this season, UW hosts Arizona, recently ranked number 25 in the ESPN/Coaches Poll. This will likely be the lone game this Pac-10 season where two ranked teams play one another. Whoever wins will stay in the polls while the loser will drop out. This game will be broadcast as the FSN national game. So to say the least, it is a big deal.

Arizona is 15-3 on the year and 4-1 in conference, having lost to Oregon State and most recently beat their rival, ASU, 80-69. The OSU game was lost technically by 1, but only because UA managed to make a 3 pointer at the end of regulation.

When Arizona comes to mind there is one player who everyone knows of and that is Derrick Williams, a favorite for Pac-10 Player of the Year and possible candidate for National Player of the Year. Derrick Williams is a 6-8 241lb F who can shoot from anywhere on the court. He leads the Wildcats in scoring with 19.7 points per game as well as a team high 7.3 rebounds per game. The next highest scorer is Solomon Hill at 8.5 ppg. Solomon is also second on the team in rebounding at 4.7 rpg. To say the Wildcats depend on Williams is a bit of an understatement. He is their core and main option. He has scored more than 14 points in every game this year and has two 31 point games, including Arizona's lone game this past week against Arizona State University.

Williams is shooting 65.8% from the field and 70.8% from beyond the arc, connecting on 17 of 24 shots. Last season Williams only attempted 16 shots, making 4. He has made considerable improvement in that aspect of his game. The biggest way Williams scores is by getting to the line. Not to knock on the guy, he is a hard worker, but it seems as though if someone sneezes on him he will be shooting two. Derrick Williams is like Isaiah Thomas his freshman year, he shoots a lot of free throws. Williams is a solid free throw shooter as well, making 77% of his shots. Against ASU he went 15-16 and at home against Cal he went 16-22. This game, more than any, will need to see our big men avoid foul trouble.

Williams is also rated as the number 1 player in the nation in effective offense by KenPom.

UA runs a 10 man rotation with no player receiving less 12 minutes per game. There are 5 players that contribute significant amounts of points (~8 ppg or more) and 4 of them are starters. The bench for Arizona, while deep, is not extremely talented.  Jamelle Horne is UA's 6th man and scores 7.6 ppg in 19 minutes of play. He is also third in rebounding at 4.3 rpg.

Where UW will be able to take the biggest advantage is our senior backcourt. Arizona is somewhat turnover prone, averaging 14 per game, led by Williams at 2.4 per game and Lamont Jones at 2.2 per game.

Arizona is a tall team with their shortest player coming in at 6-0. They have a 7-0 player, but he has only played in a few games and averages 6 minutes per game.

Starting Line Ups

Arizona

Lamont Jones 6-0 196lb G
Kyle Fogg 6-3 180lb G
Solomon Hill 6-6 226lb F
Jesse Perry 6-7 210lb F
Derrick Williams 6-8 241lb F

Washington

Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb G
Scott Suggs 6-6 195lb G
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C

Keys to the Game

Rebounding

Washington has done a great job of late out rebounding opponents and rates second in the conference in rebounding margin, narrowly behind Arizona. Williams will get his boards no doubt, Washington needs to capitalize on boxing out as best they can to maximize their opportunities. Williams can have his 9 or 10 boards as long as we win the game and battle of the boards. We rebound very well by committee. If Darnell Gant and Terrence Ross can continue to pick up a combined 10+ boards off the bench we will be in good shape. This could be a high scoring game and second chance opportunities will have a profound effect on the outcome of the game.

Free Throw Shooting

Arizona is a great FT shooting team. They are currently shooting 75.7%, while the Huskies are shooting a miserable 65.2%. There have been marked improvements by the team in their free throw shooting, especially Isaiah Thomas who I talked about in my last post. This will likely be a close game and free throws will be extremely important. We cannot afford to miss our shots because Arizona won't that is for sure.

Passing/Ball Control

After Isaiah's brilliant performance with 13 assists it seems as though he is unstoppable. He had 5 turnovers, but those were negated by his assists, rebounds, and steals. With Arizona having a young backcourt, UW is in prime position to get in transition by forcing turnovers. We need to first pass well on offense and keep control of the ball. Limiting our turnovers means less touches for Arizona and Derrick Williams.

Push the Middle

Williams is a good defender, but a better offensive threat. The biggest and best way to negate his presence is not by trying to double team him, rather make him foul. Isaiah can lead the way by driving the lane and dishing out, forcing Williams out of position and hopefully picking up a few fouls. MBA and Aziz need to see the ball often, especially MBA as he has the talents to pick up fouls better than Aziz.

Fouling

In the same vein as the last, we need to limit our fouling as Williams will kill us at the line. Even with the home court advantage that usually occurs with foul calls, Williams will still see 8+ shots at the free throw line.

Outside Shooting

Arizona is shooting 38.9% from range. They can drain the ball. UW can drain it better. Against Cal, our 3 point shooting showed up as it had earlier in the year and it paid off in dividends. If we can shoot that well again, as we usually do at home, we will be feeling much better.

Final Thoughts

This will be a tough battle, no doubt about it. Could we win by double digits? Yes we can, it all depends on how well our post players show up. Williams is going to score and rebound. He is a great player and is near impossible to stop. It is up to our post players to negate his effort by putting up great numbers themselves. Get him fouls and keep the ball from getting to him. That's how you stop Williams. Arizona will need big games from someone other than Williams to pull off the upset, in my mind. MBA, IT, and Holiday have been playing great the past week and I hope they have the same, if not more intense mentality, coming into this game. Is this make or break for winning the Pac-10 title? I don't think so, but it will be a contributing factor. The key to winning the title is win all the home games and at least split all the road trips. So far UW has picked up two big road wins in LA, something Arizona has not had to do yet. Montlake Madness has a good article on this that I will post a link to at the bottom.

Final Score Prediction

UW-83 UA-77

I think the Huskies will be able to win this, it'll be tough, but at home we have a great advantage. The crowd needs to come rocking. If we do manage to shut down Williams one way or another this game could get to be a bit of a blowout. We shall wait and see. I think Suggs will start to avoid a big size differential. Overton does really well off the bench and offers good support for Isaiah when he needs it. Suggs also gives us a better outside shooter to start the game.

Ernie Kent will be doing Color Commentary for the game tomorrow. Bring your sombreros, Dawg Pack. Ole!

Links

Montlake http://www.montlakemadness.com/how-big-is-the-zona-game/ 
For Dawg Pack Members: New Chant Reminder http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ggl6VG0zUTw
Dirt: http://tinyurl.com/DawgPackDirtUA