After a disappointing loss to Stanford, UW is looking to split the Bay area trip with a win over California who is coming off a 7 point win in overtime against WSU. Cal is 9-7 on the year and 2-2 in conference.
Cal is a solid team despite some lack luster performances this year including a 5 point first half against Notre Dame. I am certain, that in 20 minutes, I could put up 5 points.
Cal is lead in scoring by Harper Kamp at 13.4 points per game. Jorge Guitierrez is second with 12.7 points per game. Two other Cal players are scoring 10+ a game. Allen Crabbe is scoring 10.8 per game. Markhuri Sanders-Frision comes in at 10.3 points per game.
Cal rebounds pretty well and are second in the nation at defending against the offensive rebounding, only allowing opponents to grab 23% of their offensive misses. MSF leads Cal with 8.3 boards per game. Kamp is picking up 5.5 and Crabbe is grabbing 5.4 boards per game.
Cal is averaging 14.9 assists and turnovers per game. Jorge Guitierrez is leading Cal in both categories with 4 assists and 3 turnovers per outing. The starting guards for Cal average 6.5 turnovers and 9.2 assists per game.
Cal runs a 9 to 10 man rotation with 7 players getting 15+ minutes per game and 5 significant point contributors (8+ pts per game).
Frision is an undersized center at 6-7, but he weighs 265lbs. Much like Jon Brockman, Frision is able to get position and use his strength to get the boards. At 8.3 rebounds per game he is a threat MBA and Aziz will have to deal with.
Guitierrez has had to step up his game after Cal lost 4 of their 5 starters and something like 90% of their scoring. He went from 5.5 points to 12.7 by necessity and opportunity. Recently he was switched from point guard to shooting guard as he was unsuccessful at the 1. Brandon Smith has stepped in as the starting point guard.
3 players on Cal's team have made 20 or more 3 pointers this season. Jorge Guitierrez is leading in percentage at 20 of 48. Crabbe has the most makes at 29 of 81 attempts. Gary Franklin has made 24 of 82. *Edit* Gary Franklin has transferred to Baylor.
Starting Line Ups
California
Brandon Smith 5-11 185lb PG
Jorge Guitierrez 6-3 195lb SG
Allen Crabbe 6-4 205lb G
Harper Kamp 6-8 245lb F
Markhuri Sanders-Frision 6-7 265lb C
Washington
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb G
Venoy Overton 6-0 185lb G
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
Good rebounding against Stanford kept the game manageable as UW won the battle of the boards 33-26. This will be a big factor again as Cal rebounds slightly better than Stanford and is much better on the defensive end. If Aziz and MBA can pick up a bunch of rebounds again, it will be a good starting place for the Dawgs to build off of.
Perimeter Defense
UW did a good job of shutting down Stanford's outside shot, holding them to 2-11. Cal shoots much better from range and has 3 legitimate threats from outside the arc and UW will have its hands full trying to keep a hand in their face. Shutting down the outside shot will force Cal to look inside where our size should give us an advantage.
Ball Handling
UW did a poor job of handling the ball against Stanford, committing 14 turnovers and only completing 11 assists. It seemed as if anytime UW made a great defensive stop or steal they would turn the ball over or miss an easy lay-in. The USC game was the first win where we had more turnovers than assists. When we pass well, we play well and we win. Limiting turnovers is the name of the game.
Force the Middle
I don't mean make unnecessary drives or taking bad shots. I mean get the ball down low to the post players and give them some looks. MBA only took one shot in the second half due to tough defense by Stanford. Without TV coverage it is hard to tell if UW was simply unable to get him and Aziz the ball or if they didn't look to them. Holiday was shooting well, but that doesn't mean ignore MBA who had scored on the first three possessions. With so much extra size on our side down low, UW needs to take advantage of the mismatch and get the big boys rolling.
Bench Production
UW had no production from our bench, though Suggs did hit a pair of big three points including the tying shot with about 1 minute to go. We need Ross, Suggs, or Wilcox to get going and get going early. Without an outside shot presence coming off the bench we lack a good scoring option like we have thrived on in the first half of the year. Even Gant getting some points would be great for the team. Either way we need our bench players to help the starters get points on the board. Cal allows their opponents 66.6 a game and scores 67.6 points per game. UW scores 86.8 and allows 67.4 points per game. The difference in scoring is our bench production. Without our bench, Cal will be right in this game.
Free Throw Shooting
UW went 6-12 from the line. Stanford went 14-21. If UW had matched Stanford percentage (66%) the game would have been tied. Make 75% and UW wins by 1. Overton missed the front end of a 1 and 1. Personally that should count as 2 misses because you can't make what you don't get. Holiday missed the front end of his free throws at the end of the game, forcing him to intentionally miss the second. MBA went 2-4. With him alone we tie the game. 6 missed points, any two of which could have tied it up. UW has struggled with free throws all year and something needs to change if they want to win the close ones.
Final Thoughts
The loss at Stanford hopefully woke the team up a bit and made them realize just how hard they need to work to win games in the Pac-10. No matter how favored they are, UW cannot let up. The Pac-10 teams are by no means slackers, down year or not. Cal could pull the upset if UW doesn't bring their A-game. Get the ball to MBA, let him score. Get hot on the shot. Rebound well.
Final Score Prediction
After the loss to Stanford its hard for me to judge where this game will go. I think UW will show up with a little more intensity and emotion than the last. I'll call it UW over Cal 80-69.
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