First for the big numbers. The team stats. These are directly comparable because both teams play the full 40 minutes. Player stats need to be broken down into a per minute basis or per 40 basis to be compared.
Washington (Offensive) Washington State (Offensive)
PPG: 87.1 (3rd in the Nation) PPG: 75.3 (50th in the Nation)
RPG: 40.3 (14th in the Nation) RPG: 35.2 (182nd in the Nation)
APG: 17.7 (8th in the Nation) APG: 14.3 (96th in the Nation)
FG%: 48.8 (8th in the Nation) FG%: 47.7 (32nd in the Nation)
Washington (Defensive) Washington State (Defensive)
PPG: 68.1 (180th in the Nation) PPG: 64.3 (85th in the Nation)
RPG: 33.7 (131st in the Nation) RPG: 36.0 (243rd in the Nation)
APG: 10.0 (13th in the Nation) APG: 12.6 (151st in the Nation)
FG%: 40.3 (51st in the Nation) APG: 37.8 (5th in the Nation)
Washington (Difference) Washington State (Difference)
PPG: +19 PPG: +11
RPG: +6.6 RPG: -.8
APG: +7.7 APG: +1.7
FG%: +8.5 FG%: +9.9
So what do all these numbers tell us? The Huskies run a faster, more efficient offense and defense than the Cougars. The Dawgs score more points and have a larger scoring differential than the Cougars. The Huskies do much better on the boards, especially offensive, and this is a large part of why the Huskies have that larger scoring differential. If you keep your opponent from getting second chances and you get more second chances for your own team, 9 times out of 10 you will find success. If you aren't out rebounding your opponent you better hope you are shooting lights out.
I have seen a few Cougars on the ESPN boards say that our +12 points, but only +3 assists over the Cougars gives the Huskies a sketchy and more selfish offense than the Cougars. To this, I say nonsense. An assist at minimum is worth 2 points, possibly 3. That means those +3 assists are worth between 6 and 9 points. This gives us 3 to 6 points unassisted extra. 3 to 6 points can be made with 1 to 3 shots. This is by no means selfish or sketchy especially when one considers how many touches Matthew Bryan-Amaning gets and the rate at which he scores directly versus those he needs to make a move to get to the hoop. A prime example is the ASU game last Saturday. Several times Isaiah Thomas was able to get the ball inside to MBA and rather than having an open shot near the basket, MBA needed to take a dribble or two and perform some sort of post move to get the points. When that happens Isaiah does not get the assist. So to say that our offensive is sketchy for 3 extra, "self" made shots is just absurd.
Another important difference is the assist differential. Not only do the Huskies record 3 more assists a game than the Cougars, they also prevent nearly 3 fewer assists per game. UW does a better job of distributing the ball and a better job on defense of containing the ball.
Here are a few more defensive and offensive stats to look at.
Washington (Offensive) Washington State (Offensive)
3PT%: 39.4 (24th in the Nation) 3PT%: 38.1 (44th in the Nation)
TPG: 11.9 TPG: 12.5
T%: 16.2 (4th in the Nation) T%: 17.8 (41st in the Nation)
EFG%: 55.8 (8th in the Nation) EFG%: 54.5 (22nd in the Nation)
Washington (Defensive) Washington State (Defensive)
3PT%: 30.8 (44th in the Nation) 3PT%: 30.8 (42nd in the Nation)
TPG: 15.8 TPG: 15.3
T%: 22.0 (99th in the Nation) T%: 22.2 (94th in the Nation)
EFG%: 44.5 (26th in the Nation)EFG%: 44.0 (19th in the Nation)
Washington (Difference) Washington State (Differential)
3PT%: +8.6 3PT%: +7.3
TPG: -4.9 TPG: -2.8
T%: -5.8 T%: -4.6
EFG%: +11.3 EFG%: +10.5
Even in per possession stats as seen by percentages, the Huskies have better offense and defense. Sure the Cougars are better than the Dawgs at creating missed shots for their opponents, but they also make their own shots at a lower percentage. Overall the Huskies have a slight, .8%, effective field goal advantage.
One other important stat is tempo. The biggest problem with comparing pure points per game on both offensive and defense is the difference in tempo two teams will likely have. Take Stanford for example. They are currently posting the leagues "best" defense by allowing the lowest points per game. Stanford is also dead last in offensive points per game. Stanford simply plays less possessions per game by chewing up as much clock as possible, resulting in fewer opportunities for both teams. Right now the average offensive tempo in Division 1 basketball is 67.4. UW is 14th in the nation with 73.1. WSU is currently 83rd in the Nation at 69.2. This tempo difference leads to a new and more interesting stat called Adjusted Efficiency. This is basically a per possession break down of the above stats and how well the team per performs.
The Huskies are currently the 4th most efficient offense in the nation at 120.8. The Cougars are 57th at 109.2 (The National average is 100.9).
Defensively, UW is 22nd at 89.8 and WSU is 31st at 90.7, again using 100.9 as a reference point.
Knowing these two adjusted stats, one can see that defensively the two teams are very similar with UW holding the slight edge. On offense UW has a more commanding lead, hence the 12 point difference in the two teams scoring.
I think another important aspect of the game to look at is player possession percentage. By this I mean how much impact does a player have on a game? How much of the offense runs through them?
UW has two players who use about one fourth of the possessions or more. These two being, no surprises here, Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning. The Cougars have 3 players in the category. Two players use over 28% of the possessions, Klay Thompson and Faisal Aden. DeAngelo Casto is the 3rd.
To me personally, this gives WSU a much more 1 Dimensional game as they really have two offensive threats who are their go to guy. Much like Derrick Williams and Arizona, you don't necessarily have to shut down the big offensive threat to win the game. You just have to shut down their number 2 and 3 guys. Klay Thompson can have his 25 points as long as we get the W. I personally don't believe he will score more than 15, history has shown he has a poor chance of scoring more than 10. In the last, and only, 4 games against Washington Klay has scored a combined 29 points (5, 7, 8, 9). Justin Holiday has been a big part of this defensive stop.
To his credit, Thompson has been much more consistent in conference play than the last two years. So we may see a more effective and dangerous player than we have seen in his time against us.
On to the Player Comparisons!
For this I will compare the closest player opposite them in the starting line up. These are all per minutes stats, PPM = points per minute, etc.
Isaiah Thomas Reggie Moore
PPM: .56 PPM: .276
RPM: .129 RPM: .092
APM: .192 APM: .122
TPM: .079 TPM: .062
SPM: .046 SPM: .03
Edge: UW
Scott Suggs Marcus Capers
PPM: .41 PPM: .232
RPM: .126 RPM: .172
APM: .066 APM: .073
TPM: .054 TPM: .026
SPM: .018 SPM: .03
Edge: WSU
Justin Holiday Klay Thompson
PPM: .458 PPM: .649
RPM: .194 RPM: .161
APM: .07 APM: .129
TPM: .044 TPM: .096
SPM: .059 SPM: .056
Edge: Even. Klay scores and assists better, but Holiday rebounds and turns the ball over less. Both steal at approximately the same rate.
Matthew Bryan-Amaning Abe Lodwick
PPM: .609 PPM: .132
RPM: .289 RPM: .194
TPM: .064 TPM: .031
BPM: .053 BPM: .018
Edge: UW
Aziz N'Diaye DeAngelo Casto
PPM: .269 PPM: .408
RPM: .337 RPM: .236
TPM: .057 TPM: .086
BPM: .069 BPM: .071
Edge: Even. Aziz rebounds better and turns it over less. Casto scores more. Both block at approximately the same rate.
Both benches feature a few significant contributors. For WSU it'll be Faisal Aden and Brock Motum. Aden is an interesting case as he was suffering from knee pain against UA and played minimal time and did not start. If healthy, he will likely replace Capers in the starting line up. WSU also has Patrick Simmons and Dre' Winston Jr., but neither are significant players, only receiving 11 minutes or less. For UW we have Venoy Overton, Darnell Gant, Terrence Ross, and C.J. Wilcox. Both Ross and Wilcox have had 20+ point games. Gant has been rebounding between 4 and 6 boards per game since conference play has begun. Overton has always been a strong 6th man off the bench, starting nearly every game his freshman year and a few this season and last.
Edge: UW
As the stats show, UW outmatches WSU is nearly every aspect of the game. WSU does have 2 or 3 skilled players in Thompson, Aden, and Casto, but overall Klay is the go to guy and when he plays bad the Cougars generally follow suit. Holiday has shown to be a shut down defender and, along with Isaiah, have managed to shut Thompson down each and every time the two teams have faced off. What UW brings to the table is an array of players who can go off for major points at any time. Shutting down one player opens up another. Wilcox, Ross, Holiday, MBA, and I.T. have all had 20 point games. Aziz should have had a 20 point game against McNeese State, but he missed 12 free throws.
So there is some food for thought. I'll post a link to my more complete review from Montlake Madness tomorrow when it is up.
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