University of Oregon Preview

On the heels of bad news concerning Abdul Gaddy, the Ducks roll into town for the Pac-10 home opener. Without one of our starting 5, Romar will need to find a suitable replacement and some changed up tactics with the absence of arguably our best point guard.

The Ducks are 7-7 on the year, 0-2 in conference, and are coming in with 4 straight losses including a 63-48 loss to UVA who the Huskies beat 106-63 in Maui and getting swept at home by the Arizona schools. I don't expect a 106-48 victory by transitive property, but the Huskies should roll easily if they go out and play their game with the same toughness they showed in L.A.

The Huskies will now be running a 9 man rotation the duration of the season. The Ducks also play an 8 to 9 man rotation.

Only two players for the Ducks are averaging double digit points, but they have five players between 6.8 and 8.3 points per game. Joevan Catron leads the team with 16.4 points per game and is second on the team in rebounding at 6.3 boards per game, right behind E.J. Singler, younger brother to Kyle Singler of Duke, who picks up 6.4 rebounds per game and is second in scoring at 12.1 points per game.

Malcolm Armstead leads the team with 3.7 assists per game, but also has 3.4 turnovers per game. The Ducks are averaging 13.3 assists and 12.7 turnovers per game. They also average 9 steals per game, led by Armstead at 2.2 per game.

The Ducks are a team low on size, with their tallest contributing players standing at 6-8. They do have 6-10 Martin Seiferth who has played in 8 of the Ducks 14 games this season. Both E.J. Singler and Catron stand at 6-6. They are also the tallest players in the Ducks starting line up. Jonathan Loyd is the smallest at 5-8.

The Ducks are a fairly experienced team n that they have 2 seniors and 7 juniors, but they also only have 8 scholarship players on their roster currently. Several players were lost to graduations, early exits, and transfers. A lot of the transfers were due to the firing of long time coach, Ernie Kent, and the long process of hiring a new coach and athletic director.

The Ducks are a poor shooting team with an effective field goal percentage of 44.8%, 289th in the nation. The Huskies are shooting almost a full 11% better at 55.3%, 15th in the nation. The Ducks outside shooting is terrible at 29.2% and they also allow their opponents to shoot an average of 38.3%.


Singler is the best player for the Ducks, in my opinion. Even if he isn't leading the team in scoring he plays like Justin Holiday and does all the little things. He has the most rebounds on the season, he has three times the number of blocks as anyone else on the team, and he has also only recorded 18 turnovers on the season.

Keys to the Game

Rebounding

After such strong performances against two very tough frontcourts, expectations are high for the Huskies in terms of their game play on the glass. The Huskies are up to 23rd in the nation in rebounds per game at 40.5 boards per game. Aziz and MBA have really shown their strength on the boards since being installed in the starting line up together. Against such a small, Oregon line up they should have no trouble grabbing 20+ boards between them. Add in Justin Holiday who could get 10 as well and you have yourself an old fashion rebound beat down in the making. The key will be for MBA and Aziz, especially Aziz, to avoid foul trouble. At 7-0, Aziz has a huge advantage on the glass and could have a monstrous game should he be able to stay on the court for 20-25 minutes.

Outside Shooting

Oregon simply does not have the talent or depth to guard the perimeter as well as the post simultaneously. If MBA and/or Aziz can get going strong, the Ducks could drop back from their normal man to man pressure defense and resort to a zone in an attempt to cut back on our post positions. This is great for us as we have a plethora of talented outside shooters. C.J. Wilcox is still question with a Staph infection, but we have Isaiah Thomas, Justin Holiday, Darnell Gant, Venoy Overton, Terrence Ross, and Scott Suggs who have all shown to be talented outside shots. If the Ducks fall back inside we need to take advantage and shoot the lights out.

Pressure Defense

The Ducks are turnover prone, especially their point guard, Malcolm Armstead. With a talented backcourt with a ton of speed the Huskies can take advantage of the Ducks and create a ton of transition plays. The Ducks like to run full court pressure after a made basket, but do not possess the speed of our guards and this means the Huskies have a major change to get some big time dunks as well as many transition points, something we live off of. So on both offense and defense the success of the pressure will go a long ways towards the overall success of our game.

Fouls

The Huskies have picked up a lot of fouls in their last two games, especially down low. They were able to cope by using a beautiful zone defense I didn't know a Romar coached team could play. Our bigs need to do more to avoid fouls, even if it means giving up an occasional board or basket. At home this is usually not a big deal as foul calls tend to go in favor of the home team. On the road it could kill us. So far we have been OK despite Aziz fouling out both games in L.A. If the Huskies can avoid sending the Ducks to the free throw line too often we can keep the game from being competitive.

Projected Starting Lineups

Oregon

Jonathan Loyd 5-8 160lb G
Jay-R Stowbridge 5-11 180lb G
Malcolm Armstead 6-0 195lb G
E.J. Singler 6-6 210lb F
Joevan Catron 6-6 245lb F

Washington

Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb SG/PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C

...and my prediction for the shooting guard/2 spot position is...

Terrence Ross 6-6 190lb F

Why do I think it will be Ross? Ross stepped up in a way Suggs and Wilcox have not done in tough, competitive games. Ross has also shown the mentality not to shy away from shooting even when he has missed a few. He is a play maker. He is a ball handler. He is a scorer. He brings a lot to the table and has been itching for another big game after his breakout against USC.

Venoy is another solid option, but I think we need to keep him as our go to 6th man to give IT a break at times. He could get the start, it would be the easiest replacement and most obvious, but Overton is a solid off the bench player and brings too much energy and defensive tenacity for opposing guards to handle especially when tired. I also think that starting Ross gives us a fall back option of Venoy if the freshman can't handle the starting game. Romar could also turn to Suggs and/or C.J. if he is healthy, should Ross not be up to par.

Final Thoughts

The Huskies should come out inspired and on fire in honor of their "fallen" teammate, Abdul Gaddy. The Ducks simply do not have the size or talent to compete with the Dawgs. With a total height advantage of nearly 2 feet the Huskies should be able to rebound with ease, shoot over their opponents, drive the lane, and pretty much do whatever they want to the Ducks. The fact the Ducks were held to 48 points and lost by 15 against the same Virginia team the Huskies beat by 43 points is very telling and bodes well for us. As long as well play our game and don't shoot ourselves in the foot this should be a good warm up to a hot Oregon State team. With our much bigger post players and our much better shooting backcourt the Dawgs should dominate.

Final Score Prediction

UW-98 UO-64

Links

http://freepdfhosting.com/471b830daa.pdf 
http://www.montlakemadness.com/game-preview-oregon/ 
http://seattlesportsnet.com/2009/10/23/30-reasons-to-hate-the-university-of-oregon/