McNeese State Preview

Dawg Pack Dirt for McNeese State is here: http://freepdfhosting.com/84528f4745.pdf


I'd like to start with a quick recap of the St. Martins' game and how the results may play into Saturday's game plan for the official season opener.

First off, injuries. Venoy Overton will likely get the OK from the doctors and Romar meaning he will be playing and, most likely, playing quite a bit. This has two big consequences.

       1) Less playing time available at the Guard position. This will most likely affect C.J. Wilcox and Abdul Gaddy. Gaddy had a great game and I expect to see more of the same in the coming weeks, but Overton's experience and defensive tenacity really give him an edge and will earn him some major minutes. C.J. had a good second half of the game, but I think his performance was weakest from the small forward position. He will probably lose some minutes to Overton indirectly, simply due to better chemistry and more consistent performances from the other wings. I think there is a distinct possibility of running IT, Overton/Gaddy, Holiday, Ross, and MBA on the court for a large portion of the game. I see Suggs subbing in first for Ross, then perhaps Aziz if we need another big man on the court. Even Gaddy may replace IT at times when we need a taller group on the floor. The team is so dynamic and talented that on any given day any player could step up and earn 20+ minutes. Depends on how they have practiced and how they performed their last time out.

       2) Our overall defense will improve. Plain and simple, Overton is a game changer. His speed, go-get-um attitude, and constant on ball pressure give opponents nightmares. All that pressure is going to force more turnovers and will help to eliminate the outside game. Sometimes his speed out plays even himself. He is known to make silly errors from trying to go too fast on offense for his or anyone else's, own good. If Romar feels like Overton is still recovering from his hamstring injury, he may limit Overton's minutes to about 15 for the game and try to conserve him for when we really need him in Maui.

Gant is iffy in my mind. There has been no report on his condition, that I am aware of, so I would expect him not to play again this week. What that means is Simmons will most likely not redshirt this year and will receive a fair amount of time, 10-15 minutes. This gives us a bit of help defensively as his defensive skill set is better than Suggs or Wilcox, but offensively he is much weaker. This shouldn't be too much of a concern though. At any time we could have 3 or 4 dangerous weapons on the court. Whether its IT and Gaddy in the backcourt leading Holiday and MBA or if its Overton and Ross commanding Aziz and Suggs, there are many scoring options we can go to. Hopefully another week or two of rest and light practice will give him ample time to prepare for the important games in late November. We need his defense and size back, especially as we approach Pac-10 play where the line ups are bigger.

MBA had some good post moves this weekend. Admittedly they were against smaller opponents, 6-5 and 6-7, but they seemed effective regardless of how big his opponent was. If he can continue to create shots like those and convert, we should be pretty happy. McNeese's line up is appreciably larger over all, with 6 players 6-7 or taller and 3 players standing at 6-9. What I would like to see is more efficient rebounding and better boxing out of the opponent post player(s).

Ross should be able to continue his fantastic performance and snag a few rebounds once again. My hope is Holiday will also step up and grab 5 or 6 boards. This would immensely help our rebounding total and reduce the amount of second chance opportunities our opponents get. With the way Ross performed and the promise he showed, I think there is a distinct possibility he may start either this weekend or against Eastern Washington on the 16th of November. While Suggs did not have a bad game, he certainly wasn't stellar. His defense was mediocre at best and he still appears to be a spot up shooter versus an opportunity creator, whether for himself or others. His shot does force opponents to keep a man on him, but the drive is not a distinct threat as it is with Ross, Gaddy, Holiday, IT, and Overton. All five of those guys have range, but can also drive the ball into the lane as well. Knowing the drive is not part of Sugg's repertoire allows defenders to play a little further out and not be as concerned with lay-ins and short jumpers.

                                      On to the preview of McNeese State

McNeese State is part of the Southland conference and had a 10-20 season last year, going 5-11 in conference. A pretty dismal season overall. They went 5-9 in non conference including a 1 point loss to Texas Tech on New Years Day last year.

McNeese has a much taller line up than St. Martin's and their size is similar to other major Division 1 schools. They have 6 players that stand 6-7 or taller, with their tallest player being their center, Preston David, who stands at 6-10, 215 lbs. A skinny guy who should start for the Cowboys this weekend. MBA and Aziz should have no problem having their way with this guy as he is 50 lbs lighter than the previous center they battled against.

McNeese only lost one starter from last season and retain their most valuable player in Patrick Richards, a 6-4 208 lb forward. He led the team with 12.8 points per game and also racked up team highs in 31 steals and 22 blocks over the year.

Also returning for McNeese is their point guard, C.J. Collins who is listed at 5-8 on ESPN and 5-10 on the college website (I'm more inclined to believe 5-8 than 5-10). Collins averages just under 5 points a game, but dishes out an average of 3 assists per game, a respectable number.

Diego Kapelan, a 6-3 195 lb guard, also returns and is their three point expert. He connected on 86 of 214 shots, good for .402 on the season. He averaged 12.6 points per game and an amazing 7.1 three point attempts per game, 3 higher than anyone else on his team.

P.J. Alawoya is their returning rebounding leader, coming in at 7.4 a game. 4.8 defensive rebounds and 2.6 offensive rebounds for the season. He stands at 6-7 215 lbs.

                                        Starting Line Up Predictions

McNeese State

C.J. Collins 5-8 172 lb PG
Diego Kapelan 6-3 195 lb SG
Patrick Richards 6-4 208 lb F
P.J. Alawoya 6-7 215 lb F
Preston David 6-10 215 lb C

UW

Abdul Gaddy 6-3 195 lb PG
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185 lb SG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185 lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240 lb F
and I am going to predict.....Terrence Ross gets the start 6-6 190 lb F

His dynamic plays and athletic ability make him a great pick to start this game. His defensive prowess will be a big key in shutting down the tall, skilled shooters McNeese and others possess. I don't think Suggs has the skill set to be as effective against this line up.
I would not put it past Romar to start Suggs again and bring Ross in off the bench a few minutes after the start, much as Overton did for Gaddy last season.
I think starting Ross allows us to match up Holiday against their big shooter in Patrick Richards and lets Ross use his athleticism and toughness to control P.J. Alawoya.

However, if Gant is healthy and able to play, I believe he will start instead of Ross due to his experience and size.

                                                   Keys to the Game

Control the three point shot

McNeese averaged a measly 67.7 points a game last season while their opponents outscored them with an average of 70.2 points a game. McNeese made an average of just over 6 threes a game. If we can shut down Diego and Patrick, the McNeese offense is going to suffer. Take away even three of those shots and they are scoring under 60 a day.

Rebound, Rebound, Rebound

McNeese averaged almost 40 rebounds a game. We only pulled 32 out last game, way to few for a program that wants to compete during Tournament time. We need to grab at least 40 a game. With thinner guys on the court I expect our big men to step up and clean the glass. It would do our team wonders to have a good rebounding game. It'll give them confidence on the blocks and help imprint in their heads the importance of rebounds and second chance points.

Defensive Pressure

With the, hopeful, return of Overton and the presence of IT, Holiday, and Ross on the field we have the opportunity to force a lot of turnovers. Converting those turnovers into points will make our offensive effort that much easier. Romar's teams have always excelled on the fast break and I expect this year to be no different. While there were no spectacular dunks against St. Martin's I think we will have a few this game. I'm under the impression we will play much, much better against McNeese than St. Martins. With a game under our belts and a better idea of who is good at what, we will find our groove much sooner in the game.

Outcome

Another Husky win. After seeing the scoring threats we possess and how effective they were last game, I think McNeese is going to have a hard time stopping the Husky offense. I could see us putting up a 100 point effort Saturday if MBA and Aziz are able to have their way down low. Our backcourt players have the skills to create their own opportunities and the McNeese defense should offer no real resistance. I don't see McNeese making much improvement after their 10-20 season and considering they lost 101-73 in their opener last year, I see a similar result occurring at the start of 2010.
I'll call it 103-65. I've never been good at score prediction, but I think the Huskies will put up a dominant performance.


In other news, Norvel Pelle will be visiting UW this weekend for the McNeese State game. He is arguably the number 1 big man on the West Coast He stands at 6-9 200 lbs. He has an 84.5 inch wing span. UW is on the top of his list alongside St. John's. We need to grab this guy to replace MBA. He is long, strong, and athletic. He will be a great addition to our class if we can snare him. So Dawg Pack make sure to give him your love and make him feel wanted and welcome. Signs, chants, etc. whatever it takes to get him to sign with us.


Post by: John