University of Virginia Preview

The first team the Dawgs will face in Maui are the University of Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavaliers most recently lost to Stanford 60 to 81 in a game that started out close, but ended in a blow out due to the Cavaliers inexperience and lack of endurance, bringing their season record to 2-1. Their two wins come off of low end D1 programs.
Look for UW to capitalize on the experience, endurance, and speed they possess to really run the floor against Virginia. After watching Virginia in their game against Stanford, well mostly just the second half as I was busy watching the Dawgs football team run UCLA the first half, I believe this is a team we can easily beat by 20 or more. If Stanford can do it, we surely can. We can't overlook Virginia completely, but they don't seem to be much of a match up for us.

Virginia is not the highest scoring team, averaging 70 points a game with their season high coming in at 76 points in a win against William and Mary Tribe (who is that?). Their biggest asset is their free throw shooting, going 80.9% on the year thus far and a perfect 11 for 11 against Stanford. With this in mind we need to avoid the fouls that could keep Virginia in this game.

Virginia's main scoring option is 6-8 240 lb F Mike Scott. He is averaging 15 points a game and 9.0 rebounds thus far in the season. He is shooting .556 from the field and a very nice, envy worthy .882 from the free throw line. MBA and Aziz would be smart to ask him his secret. He has played nearly 33 minutes a game, some thing the Huskies can exploit by subbing MBA and Aziz back and forth to keep up the pressure and thoroughly exhaust him.
The two guards for Virginia, 6-4 181 lb Mustapha Farrakhan and 6-2 192 lb Billy Baron are scoring 11.7 points a game a piece with Billy appearing to be the better shooter, hitting 7 for 13 behind the arc while Mustapha is 6 for 18. Both are shooting above 85% from the charity line and dish out a combined 4.4 assists per game. In the game against Stanford, Mustapha went 2 for 7 on the long ball and 4 for 10 from the field. Billy Baron, the Virginia 6th man, went 0 for 4 while the third Virginia "guard", 6-6 202 lb Joe Harris, went 4 for 7 from range.

Virginia has, in its line up and starting line up for that matter, a 7 footer by the name of Assane Sene weighing in at 239 lbs from Senegal. He hails from a different city than Aziz, but attended South Kent prep school in Conneticut. The same school attended by Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Isaiah Thomas. I didn't look too much into the matter, but I would assume the three have some history together as Assane attended South Kent the same time as Isaiah and plausibly MBA as well. While his size may be intimidating, his play is not. He is averaging 1.3 points and 1.3 rebounds a game during 12.7 minutes per game. He had four fouls against Stanford and seems to be foul prone in general. He only took one shot against Stanford and missed. For whatever reason, this big man starts, but does nothing note worthy with his time on the court. This could be a chance for the Huskies to put out a big line up and abuse the 7 footer with our own 7 foot  "Star From Dakar". With MBA taking on Mike Scott, Aziz could be a big factor in the complete domination of Virginia. If Aziz and MBA do not play on the court at the same time, I could see either Darnell or MBA guarding Scott. With the ineffectiveness of their 7 footer, it doesn't seem to matter who is guarding him. I would personally like to see Gant take on responsibility of guarding Mike Scott due to his long arms and defensive abilities. This also allows MBA to abuse Assane on the glass (hopefully).

Virginia appears to run a fairly slow offense with an adjusted tempo of 65.1 versus the average of 68.0 and UW's season tempo currently standing at 74.7 (good for 5th in the nation, a category lead somewhat surprisingly by Seattle University at over 79). With the tenacious backcourt the Huskies possess look for Virginia to turn the ball over often. If Isaiah and Overton can come out and grab another 8 to 10 steals between them, this game will be wrapped up in no time.

Starting Line Ups


Virginia


Jontel Evans 5-11 190 lb G
Mustapha Farrakhan 6-4 181 lb G
Joe Harris 6-6 202 lb G
Mike Scott 6-8 242 lb F
Assane Sene 7-0 239 lb C

Washington


Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185 lb SG
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 195 lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185 lb F
Darnell Gant 6-8 225 lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240 lb F

Keys to the Game


Rebounding


Something the Huskies have been up and down with this season, more down than up thus far. While they are averaging 52 boards a game, good for 2nd in the nation, they have been out rebounded in two of three games including the exhibition. This is something the Huskies need to correct immediately, especially if they are to advance past the first round of the Maui Invitational and expect to compete and win against teams like Kentucky, Michigan St., UConn, etc. Virginia is currently averaging 32 boards a game with Mike Scott leading the team with 9 a game and Will Sherrill coming in next at 4 boards a game. There are no other significant contributers to the rebounding game for Virginia. UW has several players who can rebound and should do everything they can to wipe the glass clean. MBA, Aziz, Holiday, Ross, Gant, even I.T., C.J., and Suggs should be looking to grab some boards at every opportunity. Kind of a tangent, but if I.T. had successfully dunked the ball when going up for the rebound against Eastern, instead of barely missing, hanging on the rim (trying not to die from falling), and gotten T'd up, I think we would have seen a Nate Robinson type reaction from the crowd. If there is something that will revive the some what quiet Dawg Pack this year, it'll be a nasty dunk from our smallest player. So I.T. if you read this, please, smash a dunk in against Long Beach St. when you return home. Anyways, back to the matter at hand. With the Virginia 7 footer appearing to be a nonfactor in every aspect of the game thus far, look for MBA and Aziz along side Gant and Holiday to do work on the glass. If all goes as it should both MBA and Aziz should put up double doubles. Even Holiday could manage to pull in 10+ boards and have a double double of his own. By grabbing 45+ boards in the game, the Huskies would be doing themselves a huge favor in controlling not only the tempo of the game, but the outcome as well. The Huskies have been known for their rebounding the past few years thanks to Brockman and a bit from Pondexter. While early on it appears MBA is moderately successful at bringing in the loose balls, he should have had an easier time of it against Eastern Washington. While 10 boards is nothing to sneeze at, I was expecting 15 to 20 due to his size, skill, and experience advantage. I believe we will find Mike Scott defending MBA on the post, so MBA will have to work harder at rebounding and showing that his high scoring efforts and rebounding stats thus far are not just flukes due to playing low end schools. This is also a chance for Aziz to redeem himself after a slightly disappointing effort against Eastern.

Fouling


The Husky big men have been doing a better job on the whole of avoiding foul trouble, something that will go a long ways towards the success of the season. By avoiding foul trouble they are not only preventing free throws, something critical against good FT shooting teams like Virginia, but it also allows Romar not to force Gant into the post. From the way Romar has been talking about Sherrer and the way he has been given more minutes, I could see Sherrer coming in to take up 5 to 10 minutes a game if both Aziz and MBA get into foul trouble. He is a big body that does a moderately good job at defending his man. He is foul prone, but this is due to his lack of play time experience. Most people would consider it shocking if Sherrer came in in anything but garbage time, I on the other hand see it as a plausible outcome in more desperate situations.
On the other side of fouling, Aziz and MBA could do themselves and the Huskies a huge favor by acting as foul sponges down low against the foul prone Assane. Taking the 7 footer out of the game, despite his limited minutes and impact, allows the UW to have a major size advantage they can use to control every aspect of the game. After the 7 footer, Virginia's size is more comparable to our own with a few players listed at 6-8 and 6-9 and most of them are bench players who do not see that much action. Body control and positioning are the key to the avoiding fouls and causing fouls. If our front court can be as successful as they were against McNeese, this game will be a complete blowout. Not only did MBA and Aziz put up double double in that game, but they fouled out McNeese's two big men, allowing us to abuse the middle.

Defense


We cannot come out flat against Virginia. While the Cavaliers may not be the best team the Huskies will face this year, they are no pushover. They are coached by former WSU coach Tony Bennett who is quite familiar with Romar and the Husky style of play. I think the minds of all our players should be thoroughly focused and anxious for this game. As much as they say they focus one game at a time, this tournament has been on their mind for quite some time. This is their big chance to prove they are competitors and will make a run at the title this season. Isaiah, Gaddy, and Overton will be the first level of hell Virginia has to descend through to make their way to the basket. If the Cavalier guards are as scared as the Eastern and McNeese guards were (over and back call against one guard who backed up over the line trying to avoid Overton) UW should have no problem snatching up 10+ steals and forcing 20-30 turnovers in the game. Holiday and Gant have big responsibilities controlling two of the more potent members of the Virginia offense. Both are great on ball defenders with long arms and a great nose for the ball. MBA should have no trouble with the 7 footer despite the size difference. MBA is stronger, more skilled, and in way better shape from the looks of things.

Shooting


The Huskies did a fairly good job of taking open shots last game, but they just weren't dropping from range. The biggest problem was we seemed to be settling for the 3 ball versus trying to force the middle. Again, the Huskies need to force the ball down low to MBA and our other front court players. They will either take the shot or dish it back out to our open perimeter players. Holiday made a very humbling and impressive statement concerning his sweet, sweet jumper he has been taking from near the top of the key. He said he saw Terrence Ross taking those shots, saw how effective they were and decided that was something he wanted to emulate. For a senior to say that of a freshman is pretty crazy. Not only does it show Holiday's commitment to learning, improving, and winning, but it also shows the skill level Ross possesses. Success on the inside will mean success from range again. Expect I.T. to have his head back in the game. The family issues he was having before the Eastern game definitely showed and Isaiah will be looking to redeem and prove himself to everyone. As a team we need to not settle for the 3 ball. It should become part of our arsenal, but not our last ditch effort. We have the driving skills and inside presence to take over.

Free Throws

Kind of in the same vein as shooting in general, the Huskies need to improve their foul shot. By Huskies, I really mean MBA and Aziz. I would be moderately happy if they could average 65% from the foul line. Making foul shots against foul prone teams is something that helped the 2008-2009 Huskies be so successful the entire year. Jon Brockman stepped up big and developed a deadly foul shot that could not be stopped about half way through the season. Making our free throws will really keep Virginia from making any progress on us. It also keeps momentum on our side.

Other Thoughts


Isaiah has been a utility man this year. He starts off with an 11 assist game, follows that by a 17 point outing, then a 5 steal performance. What will we see from him on Monday against Virginia? In my mind we will see everything. Isaiah is a winner in heart, mind, and performance. We could see him put up 20 points, 6 assists and 3 or 4 steals against Virginia. Overton should also have a beastly game. Maybe not the highest scoring we have ever seen from the senior, but defensively he should really enjoy himself out there. I expect to see him put up between 6 and 8 points while dealing out 5 to 7 assists and creating numerous turnovers. If he picks pockets as easily as he did against Eastern he should grab another 3 to 5 steals. Holiday looks to have found his shot, a beautiful jumper from the top of the key. This shot should not only be successful as a scoring option against a Virginia zone defense, but also as a way to open up MBA down low for some easy lay-ins/dunks. If MBA can make himself available and open, we will be well on our way to another 100 point game. With the so called "Three Headed Monster" of Ross/Suggs/Wilcox coming off the bench, we should expect them to combine for 20 to 30 points. Any one of them could step up and drop 15 on the Cavaliers. Aziz could have another fabulous showing, it all depends on how well he can make room for himself and convert.

This should be an exciting game to watch as a Husky fan. Virginia offers up some stiffer competition, that while still not top tier, is definitely better than what we have been facing. Some questions should be answered for the Dawgs today. Is MBA really improved or is this just like last season with a fantastic start and terrible first half of the year? Has Gant been able to improve to a point where he could get 20 minutes a game? How good has Gaddy become? Is he back to his All-American status? Who, out of Ross, Suggs, and Wilcox, will step up with some consistency and earn themselves major minutes? And lastly, how good are the Huskies? A first round loss would be a terrible blow to not only the team moral, but also how the Huskies and Pac-10 are viewed by the media. The Huskies should be able to get through the first round fairly easily and should have a tough game in the second round if they face Kentucky. I haven't seen as much of Oklahoma's ability as I would like so I can't really judge how well the Huskies would fare against them. Winning the tournament, most likely a final game against Michigan St the current number 2 team in the nation, would propel the Huskies into the top ten, possibly the top 5. It would also prove we are here to play, we can win and win big, and its not just due to a weak Pac-10 that we find success so often. Winning the tournament is a very real possibility if we find our rhythm and chemistry. It'll be interesting to see how playing time is dished out once we find ourselves against a tough team. My best guess is only two of the "three headed monster" will see significant time. I.T., Overton, and Gaddy should not be greatly affected as all three are now deadly efficient on the floor. Holiday and Gant will probably sub in and out with Ross. Leaving MBA, Aziz, and maybe Gant to play the low post minutes. The tougher games will probably see MBA and Gant or Gant and Aziz on the floor 80% of the time. We may see MBA and Aziz sharing the court, but not as often, at least 'til our big men can show they aren't going to get into foul trouble.

Score Prediction


This one is a little tougher for me to judge. Stanford put up 81 on Virginia. Mostly due to Jeremy Green dropping 21 on a 5 for 9 from range night. Stanford has one great shooter, we have a boat load. We have several players that could put up 20+ against Virginia, mainly MBA, I.T. and Holiday. If all three have 20 point nights this game won't be close in any sense of the word. Gaddy should have another stunning performance on Monday, putting up 10+ point, multiple assists, etc. I have high hopes for this game. Could we see the Huskies put up 100+? 110+? I'm not sure we can score that many points night in night out. If we could there wouldn't be a team in the nation that could stop us. It is very rare to see two teams put up 100+ points in a game without overtime in college, simply due to time constraints. It takes a lot of possessions to score a 100 points, 40 some possessions at 15 to 20 seconds each is about 13 minutes of play time. Considering most teams shoot about 50 to 60 percent that is over half the game for one team alone. Virginia has only posted season highs of 76 and 74 points against teams the Huskies would have easily dropped 100+ on, much like our first three games. Virginia only managed to break 80 points three times last season. They also finished last year with 9 straight losses in conference before their conference tournament. Due to their low caliber offense I only see the Cavaliers putting up 65 to 70 points. As for our offense, the sky is the limit. We have yet to see them play against a defense that could control them successfully. Even terrible shooting against Eastern's zone ended with 98 points.

I'm going to call it 95-68 UW. Eastern played a fast offense that allowed the Huskies many more possession than they normally would have had, allowing the first half slump to be canceled by a much more efficient and successful second half. Because Virginia plays slower, missed shots will take away more from the game than in previous outings. Our shooting should be improved from the Eastern game after a weeks worth of practice and some more work on breaking a zone defense. Let's hope the Dawgs can get it done in spectacular fashion.


*Edit* For the Virginia fans reading this: I am being sarcastic about The Tribe. I know who they are, I just don't know them as a basketball school. It's like our opener against McNeese and Eastern, joke schools that big D1 teams use as warm ups. From what I saw of Virginia against Stanford they did play more man than zone, but teams have a tendency to go zone on us after a while. Unfortunately, I do have to base a lot of my opinions on Virginia from stat sheet analysis. In much the same fashion the East coast does not see us play on the West, the East coast games are not always playing out here, especially the season openers against mid majors. Glad to see it's being discussed on your site, drop a few comments here for discussion, I'm sure Husky fans would love to have some back and forth.




Other links


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskymensbasketballblog/2013477945_final_practice.html
http://www.mynorthwest.com/category/college_hoops_blog/20101117/Overton-is-the-back-bone-behind-UW's-wish-bone/#comments
http://www.gohuskies.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/111910aaa.html
http://www.montlakemadness.com/maui-classic-scouting-virginia/
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/huskymensbasketballblog/2013493957_video_scouting_12.html