Well, I can't act like I haven't been looking forward to this match up. I thought yesterday we might see a bit more of a test from Virginia, but the Dawgs came out on fire. I'm hoping they can continue their stellar performance today against UK.
There is a lot of fan hatred towards Kentucky after two UW verbal commits decided to sign with Kentucky. Arguably, with TJ and EK on our team we would have easily been favorites to win a championship. Such is not the case, none the less we are stocked with top tier talent and team unity that the NBA farm will never have.
Our coach and staff see this as just another game and that's how I'm going to treat it. You can bet that our team knows this is our chance to shine and show off that we can play with the big boys. We have a more reasonable game time (6:30 PST) so there will be a little more coverage and exposure for the program. This is a big time match up that will propel us forward with a lot of momentum should we win.
Kentucky looks beatable. Without Enes, there is definitely a hole in the middle that the Huskies need to use and abuse. They have three stellar freshman and a good junior. Calipari plays an 8 man rotation with 4 to 5 scorers. After Kentucky's main 5 scoring drops to 3.3 ppg. Yesterday against Oklahoma the three freshman, Jones, Knight, and Lamb combined for 66 of their teams 76 points, Jones scoring the team high of 29. As a comparison the UW bench combined for 50 points with our 5 starters combining for 56. We have 8 scorers (by scorers I mean 9+ points per game, I count Aziz because he has 8.7, close enough for me). Our scoring is very spread out and suffers no drop off with subs. This is a great testament to the development of players over a few years versus the one and done method Kentucky is now so fond of. Kentucky is good no doubt, I do not believe they are a top 10 or top 15 team, not with such a limited bench and lack of interior defense. I would also say Kentucky lacks a post player. Jones does a good job of starting wide and driving into the middle, but Kentucky does not have a 5 man.
Kentucky's best shooting guard has to be Doron Lamb. While Knight has made a few three pointers this year as well, Doron looks to have the better shot. Yesterday Doron went 2 for 3 while Knight went 2 for 8 from distance.
The biggest key to complete domination of Kentucky will be our ability to contain Terrence Jones. I would not be surprised to see MBA take over that responsibility as he is a little bigger and stronger than Darnell Gant, but with a 6-10 265 lb forward in the middle, Romar may want to keep MBA home to keep him ineffective (he only scores 3.3 ppg thus far). If I had to guess the defensive assignments I would bet on MBA taking Jones.
This is a game where our size with Aziz may be a huge game changer, if we can find him in the middle and he can take advantage of his strength and height. What is really going to help the Huskies today will be our depth and overall talent. If Jones has to score 29 to shut down the rest of the Kentucky offense, so be it. I'll let one player have a 30 point night if it means we get the win. Our team plays as a team, its not about their stats. Isaiah and Gaddy embody this completely, scoring as they need and dishing out the ball as is needed.
Starting Line Ups
Kentucky
Brandon Knight 6-3 183 lb G
DeAndre Liggins 6-6 202 lb G
Darius Miller 6-7 223 lb G
Terrence Jones 6-9 230 lb F
Josh Harellson 6-10 265 lb F
Washington
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185 lb SG
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 195 lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185 lb F
Darnell Gant 6-8 225 lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 240 lb F
Defensive Assignments (UW on Defense)
Isaiah Thomas-Brandon Knight
Abdul Gaddy-DeAndre Liggins
Justin Holiday-Darius Miller
Matthew Bryan-Amaning-Terrence Jones
Darnell Gant-Josh Harellson
Keys to the Game
Defense
Like the Huskies, this game will truly be Kentucky's first test. Oklahoma is not that good and despite the final score, OU had a chance to win the game, getting it within 6 with a few minutes left. If the Huskies can play solid defense, as they usually do, contain the guards, and prevent their perimeter play, we will find a lot of success. The freshman guards looked vulnerable to good defense. The best way to shut down Jones is to prevent him from getting the ball. This is a two fold assignment, not only does MBA/Gant need to be on top of Jones, but our guards need to run intercept and prevention by playing tight and fast. Shutting down UK's ability to shoot the 3 will really help momentum stay on our side.
Shooting
It probably won't be every night that we can shoot 65.4% from range. We saw this against Eastern Washington where we only made 13 on 32 attempts. If our shooting remains high, us it to our advantage. Hitting 17 three pointers puts a lot of pressure on the opposition defense to get out on the perimeter, opening up the middle for action and scoring. As a comparison, you would need 31 makes from 2 point range to equal 17 three pointers. I'm not sure if we can drop 17 again, 12 to 13 seems a more reasonable number considering the stiffer defense we should be facing in Kentucky. We did a fairly good job of getting inside, especially I.T. and Gaddy, we need to keep this up as well.
Bench Players
Playing three games in three days is tough. This is where having a deep bench is very useful. 4 players on Kentucky played 30+ minutes with 3 players playing 35 minutes. Compare this to UW where our maximum play time came from Abdul Gaddy at 26 minutes. Our guys played less time allowing them to stay well rested and prepared for tonight's match up. Our deep bench will allow us to run and run and run, wearing Kentucky into the ground. Our bench has been huge, game in and game out, keeping up the defense and offense. Venoy, C.J., Ross, Suggs, and Aziz, all need to be ready to play all out every play along with the starters.
Fast Breaks
Kentucky has terrible transition defense. Whether they score or we rebound the ball, we need to move it out quickly. Kentucky cannot defend in transition for whatever reason. We excel in fast break situations, so let's continue that trend tonight and use it to maximum advantage. Holiday needs to finish at the rim and Overton needs to step up big and get steals and force turnovers. I.T. should be out in transition often as he should be a great match up for the Kentucky guards.
Rebounding
If we let Kentucky out rebound us, this game will be much tighter than we want. I'll let Jones have his 13 if we win the rebounding battle. It was nice to see everyone grabbing boards, but we need our bigs to do better on the glass. I want to see 45 boards tonight versus 30 for Kentucky. Its a bit of a tall order, but very obtainable with our size and experience.
Score Prediction
This should be a tighter match up. Kentucky is a good team, But I think we have the talent to respond. We play better as a team, sharing the ball and scoring well. 1st overall in scoring and assists per game, 3rd in rebounding, 23rd in shooting percentage. If we play Husky basketball, we will win this one in the end. I'm not sure how to call the scoring on this one. Its tough to judge how both teams will come out
I'll call it 91-80 UW over Kentucky
Our superior bench play and defensive ability will be the game winning differences, along with a better coach.
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