UCLA is coming off a Pac-10 win against Arizona, final score 71-49. Reeves Nelson dominated play with 27 points and 16 rebounds. Josh Smith came off the bench to add 17 points and 4 boards. In a very feel good and almost miraculous turn of events Tyler Trapani, a walk on and great grandson of John Wooden, hit the final shot in Pauley Pavillion. You really can't ask for a better way to end the Bruins time in Pauley before its remodel.
UCLA is 21-8 on the season and tied for first in the Pac-10 at 12-4. At worst UCLA will finish second. In the idea situation for the Huskies, UCLA, UA, and UW will tie 3 ways for the title. Unlikely to happen as Arizona is playing the Oregon schools at home, a place they are undefeated this season and are likely to remain so. UW will need WSU to beat UCLA as well as beat UCLA themselves to tie for second place at 12-6.
UCLA is led by a dynamic duo of Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson. Honeycutt, 6-8 188, is a similar build to Justin Holiday, though he is slightly taller and only 3 pounds heavier. Honeycutt is a solid rebounder 7.4 rebounds per game. He also brings in 12.8 points per game. Reeves Nelson is called by many "Baby Brockman" or a poor mans Brockman. He is a tough rebounder and player, nose to the grind every minute of the game. He is currently scoring 14.0 points per game and averages 9.0 rebounds per game. UCLA also has Josh Smith starting occasionally at center. At 6-10 and supposedly 305lbs, looks like he is closer to 320, he is an imposing force. He is averaging 10.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game in 21.0 minutes
Malcolm Lee and Lazeric Jones are the starting guards for UCLA. Jones is averaging 3.7 assists and 2.1 turnovers per game, while Lee is averaging 2.1 assists and 1.8 turnovers. They combine for 23.2 points.
UCLA runs a 9 man rotation with 3 bench players receiving significant time, the 4th averages 8.1 minutes per game. Their bench is averaging about 23 points per game led by Josh Smith. The current starting center, Anthony Stover, has been averaging .6 points per game. Not sure what he brings at the start over Smith, but it is likely due to Smith's rather rotund shape and an inability to run hard for a full 30 minutes.
UCLA is averaging 15 turnovers a game led by Honeycutt with 3.1 per game. UCLA also dishes out 15 assists per game, led by Jones at 3.7.
Josh Smith has 7 games with 4 fouls and has fouled out of 2 contest on top of that. His slow speed is a big reason why he picks up so many fouls. Isaiah Thomas was able to force Smith to foul himself out of the game by using screen plays and rolling off Smith's side to draw blocking fouls. The same tactic should work again, though Smith is considerably improved in knowing when to move his feet and when to stay planted.
Starting Line Up Predictions
UCLA
Lazeric Jones 6-0 187lb G
Malcolm 6-5 200lb G
Tyler Honeycutt 6-8 188 lb F
Reeves Nelson 6-8 235lb F
Anthony Stover 6-10 235lb C
UW
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb SG
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb PG
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
UCLA is a strong rebounding team. With Nelson and Honeycutt each averaging 7+ and Smith nearly grabbing 7 per game they have a strong starting group of rebounders. UCLA is averaging about 37 per game and will be tough competition for UW. Holiday will have a key match up against Honeycutt and it is extremely important he brings his A-game defensively and offensively on the glass. Box out and get position. MBA will have his work cut out for him against Nelson who is an extremely hard worker and excellent rebounder. Aziz will have to use all his muscle and size to contain Smith and Stover. Our guards will need to take advantage of their rebounding skills to help our bigs out and take some of the load off of them. UW won the rebounding battle against WSU 42-35, a solid advantage that helped offset our poor shooting a bit. Last time out against UCLA UW had a narrow rebounding margin of +3. The Huskies should build off that success and bring a similar attack plan.
Contain Honeycutt
Between Nelson and Honeycutt, Honeycutt has the biggest chance of being shutdown and is the second most impacting player on the Bruin squad. He is turnover prone and Holiday needs to take advantage of this using his long arms and great defensive skills. Containing Honeycutt and limiting not only his touches, but rebounds will greatly help our team. Look for Darnell Gant to possibly pick up the assignment at times when Holiday is on the bench. Honeycutt was held to 4-12 shooting last time, though he did manage 12 points.
Get in Transition
The UCLA guards are slightly better than last season, but are still vulnerable to tough defensive opposition like Isaiah and Overton. Smith is very slow in transition and UW needs to use this to gain numbers on the run. With both MBA and Aziz running well, look for them to get some nice transition lay-ups and dunks. MBA is more likely to be the recipient of such passes and plays as Aziz usually stays close to home on the glass. Lee is a fast player and Wilcox along with Thomas will need to play well and fast to keep pace.
Shooting
UW shot poorly through most of the WSU game and has lacked its outside touch the past few games. The Huskies need to find the hot hand and let him get some shots off. This comes down to not only Romar drawing up plays, but the team creating opportunities themselves. We need to find at least two outside shooters to give us solid flow and scoring. IT will be looking to have a field day and may find some luck against the slightly shorter UCLA line up. Smith is slow to the ball and may pick up fouls on our driving guards if he is caught out of position. Its time to shine for the freshman duo of Wilcox and Ross. With Suggs still questionable, the outside shooting falls into their capable hands. They need to be confident and smart with their shot selection. Don't be afraid to drive.
Passing
Too many turnovers against WSU along with terrible shooting killed UW. Absolutely killed them. The Huskies were impatient and lazy with the ball and it hurt them badly. With the season teetering on disaster the Dawgs can ill afford mistakes. This begins with I.T. at the point leading by example. He must pass well, show patience, and share the ball when shots aren't opening up.
Ball Handling
Goes Hand in hand with the above. Not only must our passing be crisp, but we must dribble and move with strength and skill.
Post Defense
With a strong frontcourt, MBA, Aziz, and Gant once again have their work cut out for them. They need to avoid foul trouble and use good help defense to block shots and rebound. Our bigs need to avoid silly rebounding fouls and use their strength to gain position.
Bench Play
UW and UCLA's respective benches have taken two different directions. UCLA's bench is becoming much more productive, while UW's is dwindling in size. The UCLA game was the last time we had Abdul Gaddy (shed tear). Terrence Ross, Darnell Gant, and Venoy Overton need to come off the bench with zest and tear up the court.
Final Thoughts
UW will be in another tough and grind 'um match up. UCLA is a big, physical team who will use its size to play an inside out style of game. Could we see UW utilize the zone again? Doubtful, UCLA is a better outside shooting team than mostand our team is sized and skilled in the right places to take advantage of UCLA's short comings. Nelson and Smith will prove to be tough match ups and UCLA will look to them more often than anyone else. With Holiday on Honeycutt, that option will be mostly shut down. If we can play a tough game, rebound, and get some shots dropping we will be fine. After the poor showing against WSU and the NCAA at large bid starting to become less and less certain you have to imagine the Huskies are entering into lock down desperation mode like last season. Let's hope that the Huskies do not disappoint again. I don't know if I could handle such a tough and important loss again. I want this win badly, but I have this ill feeling in my stomach the Dawgs could falter again. Still, I love this team too much to pick against them while their talents remain.
Final Score Prediction
UW-85 UCLA-80
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