Washington State University Preview 3

Sorry for the late post, its the last week of the quarter and I've been busy with cramming all the homework in before Spring Break gets here. Anyways, on to the preview.

UW will face Washington State in the opening round and is trying to avoid a complete sweep on the year as well as securing an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament. The Cougars should have their full roster available to them while the Huskies will be down their lone backup point guard to Isaiah Thomas. As Lorenzo Romar said in his media conference, "The backup point guard to Isaiah Thomas is Isaiah Thomas." Expect I.T. to play a full 40 minute game or close to it and expect Ken Bone to apply pressure on I.T. throughout the game to amplify the fatigue. No word yet on Justin Holiday's condition, but one would expect after nearly a week of recovery his concussion is healed up and he is able to play. I assume he underwent some sort of test yesterday, but I have not yet heard the results.

The Cougars and Huskies have everything to fight for. With 2 wins in the tournament, the Cougars have a decent chance of getting an at large bid, though winning the Pac-10 tournament is really the only way for them to guarantee a bid.

The Cougars enter this game with a 19-11 record, 9-9 in conference, with 2 straight wins over the Dawgs, including a near blowout at Hec Ed. The Huskies are still a 6 to 7 point favorite despite all of the controversy that has happened leading up to this game. Its tough to be a team 3 times in one season, but UW pulled it off last year against OSU and Stanford and there is no reason why the Cougars couldn't do it to us. They would love to be the thorn that pops our bubbles and sends us with our tails between our legs back to the NIT.

Klay Thompson will return after a 1 game suspension due to a marijuana possession charge leveled against him after the USC game last week. He is averaging 21.4 points to top off 5.4 boards and 4.0 assists per game. He also commits a team high 3.6 turnovers. When you control the ball as much as he does, chances are you are going to give it up now again and the stat sheet shows it. He uses just over 32% of the teams possessions. He lit UW up for 25 and 26 points this year after being held under 30 points the previous 4 games combined. Holiday and Darnell Gant will likely draw this assignment for the game. Holiday's defense against Tyler Honeycutt was superb, let us hope he can bring that level of intensity and success to this game as shutting down and limiting Thompson will be a big key to picking up the win.

Reggie Moore will also return to play against UW after suffering a sprained ankle that kept him out of the UCLA game. Chances are he could have played in the UCLA game, but Bone was more willing to lose the last regular season and have his team healed up for the Pac-10 tournament as that remains their lone way to secure an at-large or automatic bid should they win it all. Moore is averaging 9.5 points and 3.5 assists per game while only committing 2.0 turnovers. If UW can shut down Moore and DeAngelo Casto while limiting Thompson to 15 or so points, the Huskies can feel fairly confident that the W will land on their half of the head to head this time around.

DeAngelo Casto is 3rd in scoring for the Cougs with 12.0 points per game and leads the tam with 6.8 rebounds per outing. He dominated MBA last time around and could very well do the same thing in this game should MBA not show up to play. Casto is one of those players who could go out and score 20 and grab 10 boards or he could get completely shut down and go for 6 and 6. Its all a matter of what level of defense MBA brings with him and what kind of backside help MBA can get from Aziz and the rest of the Huskies. Normally a zone would be a great option to shut down the low post, but Thompson, Aden, and Moore are all too dangerous from range to be left out and open.

Starting Lineup Prediction

Washington State

Reggie Moore 6-1 180lb G
Marcus Capers 6-4 185lb G
Klay Thompson 6-6 202lb G
Abe Lodwick 6-7 208lb G/F
DeAngelo Casto 6-8 255lb F

Washington

Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb G
C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb G
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N'Diaye 7-0 260lb C

Keys to the Game

Rebounding

UW has beaten the Cougars both times on the glass as should be expected when we have such a great size advantage. The key will be limiting Casto's effectiveness on the boards as he is truly the only Cougar who succeeds regularly in that stat column. UW had 23 offensive board to WSU's 12, that is the kind of domination the Huskies need to build off of.

Limiting Turnovers

UW committed 24 turnovers the first time. The committed 16 the next. The Dawgs need to get this number under 13 if they want to win. Isaiah Thomas will be under pressure the whole game so it will be important that the 4 on the court are aware of what defense the Cougars are throwing at them. They need to move to the ball to avoid lazy passes being picked off. Scott Suggs may run the point for a minute here and there, but overall do not expect anyone other than I.T. to bring the ball up. Romar should prepare a press breaker as I expect WSU to come out in a Three Quarters or Full Court Press. They are simple enough to break as long as the personnel are aware of their roles and duties. Cherry Pick Aziz in the paint if the Cougars pressure too hard.

Passing

Along with limiting turnovers the Huskies need to pass well to get open shots. The past 3 games or so have been really poor offensive showings as a team. Individual players have had great games, see Wilcox against UCLA, but overall our shooting has really stunk it up, especially from range and MBA's bunny shots that cause Husky fans everywhere to tear out their hair. We can get better shots and hit more shots if we pass around with patience to find the open man whether he is in the paint or outside the arc.

Shooting

We either need to start hitting our 3 pointers or start taking less of them. The Dawgs are generally good about taking uncontested 3's, but they have not been hitting the open ones like they did at the onset of the year. MBA, if you read this post, for the love of God USE THE BACKBOARD! He misses more shots short than any big man I have ever seen. I love what this guy has done for our program, but at 240lb of cut muscle he should not be short changing the basket. Shoot hard, aim long, hit the glass and bank it in. Its there for a reason, use it. The ball has a much higher chance of going in if you hit the back of the rim than the front, its simple physics and geometry.

Shut Down Thompson

One player should not be able to beat a team, but Klay draws enough attention that guys like Casto, Moore, and Aden are opened up and start going lights out themselves. Holiday needs to bring every defensive technique in his book out to shut Thompson down. I'm not saying he needs to be held under 10, that would be amazing, but 15 or so points should be considered a shut down night.

Grit and Toughness

UW showed this in L.A. at the start of the season and ground out two tough roads wins only to go on and shut down on the road once more. The Dawgs need to find that toughness again and bring both their defense and offense to the game. Its do or die time and if the Huskies lose a third straight to WSU, not only will they have to live with that for the rest of the year, but they will likely be sitting in the NIT rather than the NCAA. Several people have called UW a lock, but I don't buy it. Not yet.

Final Thoughts

Its going to take every tool in the basket, but UW has the talent, even without Venoy Overton, to beat the Cougars. I have this sick knot in my stomach that is yelling at me that the Cougars are going to make us look the part of the fool again, but Romar is known for getting his team into a state where if its do or die time they step up and pull out all the stops, something they should do all year anyways...The game really lies in Isaiah's hands. Without a backup he will have to play one of the toughest and most impressive games of his career. He has taken a step back from his initial games after Abdul Gaddy's injury and the Huskies need him to get those A-Game performances back. Ross, Wilcox, and Suggs are going to be a huge part of this game. If 2 of those 3 can shoot decently then the Dawgs will be in OK shape. MBA and Holiday need to play like seniors, hit their shots, and play great defense. Aziz needs to take up space, get boards, and avoid foul trouble. Darnell Gant just needs to keep on doing what he has been. 6 points and 4 to 5 boards a game is the kind of production we need out of him. Alex Akita of Seattle Sportsnet made a great comment today "The Huskies have not lost a game in which Brendan Sherrer and Antoine Hosley have played. Start them both." Hilarious, lets hope they are playing by games end.

Final Score Prediction

UW-81 WSU-77