UW faces a tough test Sunday against a long and lean North Carolina squad. UNC leads the nation in rebounding due to their tall frontcourt and much like UW, UNC favors an up and down game. UNC starts two guards at 6-3, Dexter Strickland and Kendall Marshall, a 6-8 forward also known as Harrison Barnes (the first freshman preseason All American), 6-10 John Henderson, and 7-0 Tyler Zeller. Despite all the length in their starting 5, UW matches up pretty well. Our guys will give up a few inches here and there, but it is nothing extreme. Do not be surprised to see UW to drop into a zone to combat their length. UNC shoots the 3 with a low percentage compared to their 2 point shot. This isn't to say they are a poor 3 point shooting team, they hit 33%, they just have the size inside to do damage.
Let's take a look at the starting 5 for the Tar Heels.
Dexter Strickland is 6-3 180lb. He plays the shooting guard position for UNC, while Kendall Marshall takes point guard. Strickland is averaging 7.3 points, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.6 turnovers per game. He is a quick guard who can be turnover prone. In their first round game, Strickland had 4 assists and turnovers. Strickland has 8 made 3's on 32 attempts so do not expect him to be dropping bombs from outside. He is a 67% free throw shooter.
Kendall Marshall is a much deadly and talented guard. He leads UNC in assists at 5.9 per game along with 2.4 turnovers, 1.0 steals, and 6.0 points. He is the one to run the offense. He gets the ball inside to the post, he works it around the perimeter to Barnes. If UW wants to gain an advantage it will start by putting pressure on Marshall and Strickland. They are the most prone to mistakes. Marshall is 17-44 from range on the year and is a bit better of a shooter, though on average he scores less.
Harrison Barnes is the one everyone talks about and, honestly, he deserves it. Barnes leads UNC in scoring with a 15.3 point average to go along with 5.9 rebounds per game. He can light it up any night of the week and dropped 40 on Clemson to advance to the ACC championship game. Barnes was well defended by LIU, held to 9-19 shooting (2-10 outside). Justin Holiday will combine with Darnell Gant throughout the game to stop this dangerous player.
John Henderson is another dangerous player. At 6-10, 210lb he is a bit of a light weight. I expect Gant will draw the assignment to start the game. Henderson averages a double double and is a blocking machine. 11.9 points, 10.1 boards, and 3.2 blocks per game. Damn impressive numbers. I.T. will need to be careful on the drives inside with him in the paint. UW can help the drive by clearing the lanes and forcing Henderson to commit body check fouls when attempting to defend.
Finally we come to Tyler Zeller. 7-0 250lb, he is a very similar build to Aziz N'Diaye. He is a better shooter, but an equal strength rebounder. His rebounding numbers are better because he gets more minutes. 15.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. The three forwards combined for 84 of UNC's 102 points against LIU. They are dangerous to say the least. MBA is a bit smaller, but I think he has a strength and speed advantage. MBA will need to be patient in the paint as Zeller and Henderson are solid defenders.
Starting Line Up Predictions
North Carolina
Dexter Strickland 6-3 180lb G
Kendall Marshall 6-3 186lb G
Harrison Barnes 6-8 210lb F
John Henderson 6-10 210lb F
Tyler Zeller 7-0 250lb F
Washington
Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb G
Terrence Ross 6-6 190lb G
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Darnell Gant 6-8 225lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Keys to the Game
Rebounding
As I said to start things off, UNC is the number 1 team in the nation when it comes to rebounding. They average 42.3 per game. Impressive. Their 3 starting forwards had 36 of UNC's 52 against LIU. They get some solid numbers from their guards as well. UW will have their work cut out for them. If you want to limit UNC's frontcourt contribution it all starts with big rebounding numbers. Keep them off the glass by getting position and drawing the over the back calls.
Free Throws
With UNC essentially playing at home and a crowd of baby blue in the arena, one could see the refs playing a little biased for sure. This means shooting like we did for 98% of the game against Georgia. We were perfect from the line until crunch time when Venoy Overton and C.J. Wilcox missed their free throws. I have a feeling this will come down to the wire and as such every free throw counts and momentum can swing full tilt based on how they fall. Somehow we manage to find ourselves against a team that on average shoots slightly worse from the line than us. Barnes is their best shooter at 75.4% from the line.
Interior Defense
With 3 tall, strong, and talented forwards at their disposal UNC is a force in the middle. They rely almost entirely on their interior play, but Barnes can step out and do damage behind the arc. Leslie McDonald also comes off the bench for some solid minutes and brings a nice outside shot. A mixture of zone and man will be used, no doubt. Strong backcourt pressure will help our frontcourt immensely. I would almost suggest a Box and 1 defense to contain Barnes, but it is a much more complex defense that requires some practice that is unreasonable to put in at this point in the season.
3 Point Shooting
I am not expect a Virginia game type performance where we drop 17 3's, but I would love for that to happen. What I am expecting is 8 to 12 makes on 20 or so attempts. UNC does not defend the arc that well and UW has the shooters to take advantage of this. 4-18 isn't going to cut it. When we can't find our shot we need to try and get better shots closer to the hoop. If we can hit like we did in the second half against Arizona I will be a happy camper.
Final Thoughts
UNC starts 5 High School McDonald's All Americans. They are a talented group who play a similar tempo of game. They have a strong frontcourt. We have a strong backcourt. Our bench is better, in my opinion. We shoot better, we handle the ball better, we actually rebound the ball better offensively, but UNC gets to the line more often. UNC's up and down style of play is great for us. Georgia kept it close by using their size down low in a half court offense. UW will need to get back on defense. I like Romar applying pressure after made free throws and some shots. It frustrates the opposing offense and forces them into mistakes here and there. I could see UW getting down early and having to fight back. Our shooters need to be hot and not just one or two. Everyone needs to be draining the open ones and creating more opportunities for their teammates. Patience is key. Don't force in the paint as they have some tall defenders who will swat the weak shots. I think this is winnable. It won't be easy. My heart will hurt, but we can do this. When our A-Game is operating on all cylinders we are unstoppable.
Final Score: UW-87 UNC-83
Free throws will make the differential bigger than it actually is. UNC is a 4 point favorite, most likely due to the "home" setting. It really comes down to how well we are shooting. Our defense has been great, we just need our offense to get clicking again. Go Dawgs!
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